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Sure hope you guys haven't any soybeans in your bins

1.9K views 130 replies 20 participants last post by  Mike in Ohio  
#1 ·
for sale that is.

President Donald Trump's tariffs have decimated U.S. farmers' soybean market and there is "no sign of Chinese buying." The fall harvest has started without any orders from China, the world's biggest buyer, according to a new report published on agriculture.com's Successful Farming.

American farmers are reporting record yields for crops this fall but it's unclear who will buy them. The USDA estimates that American farmers are harvesting 4.3 billion bushels, however there is no indication if or when shipments to China will continue. Most years, China buys more than half of U.S. soybean exports — but not this year.

Brazil, however, has had record demand from China from January to August 2025 for Brazilian soybeans. And in the new report, experts "consider the possible consequences if a trade deal is not reached this fall."

"From the 2017/18 to the 2024/25 crop season, Brazil jumped its soybean production from 4.5 billion bushels to 6.3 billion bushels, according to the National Supply Company (Conab) – Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency."

There is speculation that Chinese buyers importing soybeans could be "accelerating shipments to avoid sourcing from the United States."

Read more: 'No sign of Chinese buying': Trump credited for 'devastating' US farmers' soybeans market

fear not. your feckless leader is promising ag help from all that money he's reaping from tariffs:).
 
#2 ·
I know you are an irrational being, and to expect you to think rationally is entirely irrational on my part. But, here it goes.

We have seen our jobs go overseas for decades. There is only one way to bring them back. That one way is to raise the cost of foreign made goods. The only way to do that is tariffs.

It will hurt for a while.

Approximately 163,200 permanent jobs relocated from outside the US to the US based on 2025 announcements.

Broader trends suggest cumulative reshoring with foreign development investments could add 350,000+ jobs annually.

The foreign development investment is over one trillion dollars. The annual payroll for these jobs is ~$20 billion.
 
#5 ·
Soyabeans contributed 124 billion to our economy and supported 500,000 jobs.

Did you factor in the loss of jobs and money that not being able to sell a large portion of this year's crops will happen for many years for more than just farmers? The farmers may get subsidies but all the business supporting those farmers will be hurting as well.
 
#4 ·
WASHINGTON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States would give proceeds from tariff revenues to farmers.
 
#7 ·
Countries that typically source soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay are likely to increasingly turn to alternative suppliers, primarily the United States, due to China's dominant buying in 2025.

China accounts for ~60% of global soybean imports, and its aggressive stockpiling from Brazil has tightened South American supply, pushing up prices and redirecting flows.


 
#9 ·
for sale that is.

President Donald Trump's tariffs have decimated U.S. farmers' soybean market and there is "no sign of Chinese buying." The fall harvest has started without any orders from China, the world's biggest buyer, according to a new report published on agriculture.com's Successful Farming.

American farmers are reporting record yields for crops this fall but it's unclear who will buy them. The USDA estimates that American farmers are harvesting 4.3 billion bushels, however there is no indication if or when shipments to China will continue. Most years, China buys more than half of U.S. soybean exports — but not this year.

Brazil, however, has had record demand from China from January to August 2025 for Brazilian soybeans. And in the new report, experts "consider the possible consequences if a trade deal is not reached this fall."

"From the 2017/18 to the 2024/25 crop season, Brazil jumped its soybean production from 4.5 billion bushels to 6.3 billion bushels, according to the National Supply Company (Conab) – Brazil’s food supply and statistics agency."

There is speculation that Chinese buyers importing soybeans could be "accelerating shipments to avoid sourcing from the United States."

Read more: 'No sign of Chinese buying': Trump credited for 'devastating' US farmers' soybeans market

fear not. your feckless leader is promising ag help from all that money he's reaping from tariffs:).
Anyone with beans in the bin can sell them today for $9.51-9.91, depending on delivery date.

Your numbers are wildly off.

Your source calls itself progressive, so draw your own conclusions.

Enjoy your false omniscience.

LOL
 
#13 ·
With the cost of American labor, look for a large increase in robotics.
No doubt. That is why we have seen such huge productivity gains in the US, while hourly wages have been stagnet. The American worker has not enjoyed the fruits of increased productivity.

As a point of reference -
US total hourly manufacturing costs average $47. In Germany, total labor costs reach $63.

Today's US workforce is very poor compared to the 1950's, 60's and 70's.
I have argued multiple times related to the devaluation of the dollar and the widening wage gap between producers and owners.
 
#14 ·
Our farmers are being destroyed. No need for the FarmAid concert if they were doing swell, huh?

Amazing how willing some are to opine that the OTHER GUY just needs to suck it up and suffer for a while.

I wonder how many are going to be all that happy when they make a "run for the border" or swing by wallyworld and the shelves are bare.

IF you support the tariffs, you better danged well be growing your own food, using stuff up, wearing it out, making it do, or doing without. Because the last time we tried this particular type of tariff ploy it triggered the Great Depression.
 
#25 ·
Yesterday my wife and I went to the customer appreciation event at our local Farm Credit office. A lot of the conversation was about soybeans, corn and other crops. Farmers are hurting big time. Storage bins are full and there is still a lot to be harvested. Nobody has mentioned corn in this thread. Many farmers store corn in the bins after they ship soybeans. For many there is no place to store corn that is just starting to be harvested. Tariffs are hitting inputs such as tractors/equipment, fertilizer, etc. It has taken years for farmers to build up China as an export market for soybeans.

@Orchardsmith wrote:

"Anyone with beans in the bin can sell them today for $9.51-9.91, depending on delivery date."

That sounds good except that before all this started the price per bushel was around $13. One of the farmers at the event has 2,500 acres of beans. The average soybean yield in the U.S. is about 52 bushels per acre,That is a $390,000 drop in revenue.

It's real easy to say that's the price you pay if you aren't the one paying the price. The other shoe is that many more jobs have been lost to automation than have been exported to other countries. All those jobs aren't coming back no matter what you do.
 
#30 ·
This country needs to end it's China addiction. :(
Yes, many will go through withdrawal. There will be some pain.
Farmers may want to switch to raising something besides soybeans, like corn, or...
We grow tons of sugarcane down here, and make lots of money. :)
Maybe Wal-Mart would be better if 90% of the stuff on their shelves didn't say 'Made in China' on the label?
What if most of it said 'Made in the USA' instead?
Just a few decades ago we were self-sufficient... We can do it again.
We just need to put down the crack-pipe called China. :mad:
 
#34 ·
ok. you can wake up now.
while we're giving up stuff, why not gasoline? why not guns?
your a dreamer if you think the economy can stand some journey
back in time to the cave man era. wake up.
LOL. You first. And who said anything about the cave man era except for you? I don’t think most of the people on this site are sleeping. Projection, maybe?
 
#44 ·
Almost everyone in my Sunday School class is a farmer.

Hearing them talk, the price they get is not the big complaint.

The big complaint is how high input costs have got since 2000 and especially hitting highs in the late 20-teens.

Yes, there are buyers for everything they raise.

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John Deere Combine
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#45 ·
Farmer's costs are 2.2 times higher now than 2000.

The selling price of soybeans is also about 2.2 times higher than 2000.

Image
 
#46 ·
The November 2025 soybean futures contract closed at $10.14 per bushel on September 26, 2025.
 
#48 ·
  • First Half of 2025: 361 Chapter 12 bankruptcy cases were filed, a 13% increase over the same period in 2024.
  • First Quarter (Q1): There were 88 Chapter 12 filings, nearly double the 45 recorded during the first quarter of 2024.
  • Second Quarter (Q2): The number of Chapter 12 filings increased in the second quarter, although the overall number remains low by historical standards.
Other factors influencing farm bankruptcies in 2025:
  • Worsening Credit Conditions: Lenders reported lower repayment rates on farm loans and an overall decline in the availability of agricultural lending funds in the first quarter of 2025.
  • Financial Strain: In its September 2025 farm income forecast, the USDA projected that farm sector debt would increase to $591.8 billion by the end of 2025.
  • Historical Comparison: While the increase in 2025 is significant, bankruptcy numbers remain low compared to the historical peak of 5,788 filings in 1987.
 
#49 ·
All the signs of trumps tariffs are easy to see. For those with a brain.
A large part of the pressure stems from the fact that “commodity prices are back at levels where they were in the 2018-2019 era,” said Scott Stiles, Instructor and Extension Economist with Arkansas State University.
The last monthly report from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) showed that tractor sales were down 13 percent year over year and combine sales were down 48 percent for the same period, Stiles said.
 
#50 ·
Farmers across the country have fallen on hard times in the wake of a number of President Donald Trump's policies, despite being one of his most loyal voting groups.
Even in states which voted overwhelmingly in Trump's favor in the 2024 Presidential Election, farmers are concerned about their future, and bankruptcy filings have soared this year.
 
#52 ·
IF you support the tariffs, you better danged well be growing your own food, using stuff up, wearing it out, making it do, or doing without.
People would be better off to do that regardless.

Because the last time we tried this particular type of tariff ploy it triggered the Great Depression.
The great depression wasn't triggered by tariffs.
 
#53 ·
  1. Farmers are in a deep crisis due to a combination of record agricultural debt, disruptive trade wars, financial consolidation, inclement weather, reduced federal programs, increased input costs, and low market prices
  2. Farming is a business with high overhead and very thin margins, even when there are minimal disruptions
  3. A similar bailout six years ago only accelerated the consolidation trend, allowing bigger farms to take bigger risks with the expectation they won't be allowed to fail
  4. The number of agricultural bankruptcies has spiked, and the industry is saying it will likely need a new government bailout
  5. The vast majority of agricultural output comes from large-scale family farms that are multi-million dollar corporations
  6. Small family farms (generating under $350,000 annually) collectively account for only 17% of total agricultural production
  7. The claim that most U.S. agriculture is done on family farms is a "convenient lie," as the official classification includes insignificant operations like Christmas tree lots
  8. The struggles of small farmers are used as an effective marketing tool for industry lobbying, creating optics that lead to government support
  9. The majority of financial relief and benefits from lobbying ultimately flow to the largest producers, not the small farmers voicing their concerns
  10. The current assistance system is highly skewed: just 7% of farmers received 63% of all financial assistance provided between 2019 and 2023
  11. There is a rapidly growing share of institutional farms owned by investment firms, making farmland an attractive investment class
  12. Farming has fundamentally changed from a business of making food to one of land speculation, where appreciating land value provides far more income than growing crops
  13. A major challenge is a worker shortage, as low wages and difficult conditions, along with heightened immigration enforcement, have made it harder to find farm laborers
  14. Government funding is set to increase with new incentives next year, but the delayed start is "filtering out the smaller farms" that cannot wait
  15. A major cause of bankruptcies is frozen government programs, with dozens of existing contracts being withheld indefinitely after farmers had already made investments to qualify
  16. China, historically the largest international buyer of U.S. soybeans, has stopped purchasing American soybeans and has strengthened trade ties with Brazil
  17. Foreign countries are prioritizing food security and are making major investments to find alternatives to American food imports
  18. A major problem is the trade wars, as roughly 20% of U.S. food production is sold abroad, mainly to Canada, Mexico, and China

From
 
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#57 ·
Good video. A couple points of "contention".

1. In our area (smaller farms under 200ish acres aren't getting sold to institutional agriculture. They are getting broken up into smaller parcels and sold to people wanting a home in the country or a vacation home. This means that if you have a farm and adjacent land becomes on the market you try and buy it or you may never get another chance. At our peak we had 6 mortgages. Our farm is surrounded by 17 adjacent properties. Only 2 of those are of interest to us because the others are smaller parcels with homes on them. Both are pasture. One parcel is 18 acres and the other is 30 acres. I don't know what we would do if either of them went on the market. I guess it would depend on price and interest rates.

2. I'm not sympathetic towards farmers who take on more debt, primarily to purchase new equipment because they benefit from 100 percent bonus depreciation and/or section 179 deductions.Other than purchasing real estate we have always shunned debt. Perhaps some of those farmers should fail. We've always avoided government programs other than CAUV. I can see where it might be seductive to many when FSA comes through after a major storm and offers 1% loans to repair damage after a storm. One example in my case was after the torrential rains from what had been hurricane Ivan hit our area. Why should farmers get this kind of benefit when other businesses and individuals do not? The answer of course is lobbying.

I'd write more but I'm beat from stacking wood and other chores. I'm taking a shower and a nap before we have supper.
 
#60 ·
that's bs. Everything was just fine until the current liar was elected. whatever happened to the wingers big cry about deficits? about inflation? the right has never before worried about the "global playing field"... they only do that when their leaders are going bust....
The president's net approval rating is -17%,
down 0.2 points since last week.
39% approve, 56% disapprove, 4% not sure
 
#56 ·
Theodore Roosevelt's speech titled "Citizenship in a Republic," delivered at the Sorbonne in Paris, France, on April 23, 1910 -

"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better.

The credit belongs to the man who strives, who dares greatly, who perseveres, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.
"

From the speech, often referred to as "The Man in the Arena."
 
#61 ·
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) praised President Donald Trump's tariffs even as he admitted that farmers in his state had a "big harvest" with "no place to go."

. "There are markets right now that aren't open to some of our commodities." "As a consequence of that, we've got a big harvest coming in here in South Dakota, corn and soybeans, and no place to go with it,"
 
#65 ·
Everything was just fine
I am trying to recall if you ever said anything that made sense.

If you support them, you’re signing up to pay more, go without, or make do
I do support them. I don't like them, but I support them. I see them as absolutely necessary and 40 years overdue.

We all know that things cost more when they are made in the US. I am willing to pay that if it means my fellow Americans, and their kids, have a job making things.

I have asked many times what mechanism other than tariffs might help level the global playing field. No one had any suggestions. Some are so blind as to think "Everything was just fine"

  1. China offers significantly lower overall production costs, driven by historically lower labor wages
  2. The USA has a robust and strictly enforced legal framework for Intellectual Property protection. In China the risk of IP infringement and unauthorized copying is very high
  3. The USA enforces stringent environmental, labor, and safety regulations (like OSHA and EPA standards), increasing compliance costs but ensuring high safety and environmental accountability. China's regulatory environment is considerably less strict