The US Dollar is weakest if ever been since WWII according to MSNBC this morning, and the price of gas keeps rising which inflates the price of everything. There is an old navy term for this: “Red skies in the morning sailors take warning…red skies at night sailors delight!”

The color of the sky where we live will determine how to prepare ourselves for this Coming Storm. And what I see coming over the horizon is not a pretty storm, you might call it the Storm of the Century.


I just hope and pray that we make it all the way through.. SOS!

 

I've heard it said that a Recession affects your neighbors and a depression affects everyone.

Not going to be pretty. Right now, Monday morning early, the market is bouncing a little higher than expected. Hope it stays. Doubt it will.

Shopping this week was horrible. Just horrible. Prices are going up and up and up here in the PNW. Gas was 3.49.9 or higher. We planted rubarb, asparagus, strawberries, onions. Bought more seed.

We have food storage and are using it. Parking the car as much as possible. Wondering what we are going to see in the future.

Propane bill came in. Over 600. for 2 months. In late April it's usually warm enough to turn off the propane in the house and just spot heat on occasion with electric. By, next fall I would imagine that Propane will be 1000. every 2 months or more.
Now how in the world are we going to afford that? How?

 

I believe we're in a recession right now. Whether or not it is going to turn into a depression remains to be seen.

.....Alan.

 

I'm not an economist or historian, but I just have a very bad feeling about what is happening now. People have been calling this for years now, and it's finally come.

I really would be surprised if the US survives this intact. Seriously. I don't think it's going to be over any time within the next 5 years. Look how fast the situation has snowballed so far. Not good!

 

My money is receeding and I am depressed about it.

 

I feel we are in a recession already, and feel it is certain that a depression is on it's way.

 

I guess the saying I've heard says it best.

A "Down Turn" is when you know someone who knows someone that is out of work.

A "Recession" is when you know someone out of work.

And a "Depression" is when your out of work.

By that measure it is definietly a "Recession" but could quickly turn into a "Depression".

 

What is it when you import everything, create nothing, and even your research is being outshined by foreign competition and that all dries up because you have no money?

 

A recession is defined as a negative economic growth that occurs for more than half a year.
A depression is defined as a really long recession.- at least that's my understanding.
I don't know how the economic gurus are keeping track of it, but it seems in my opinion that we have been in a recession for over half a year. I am not sure how long a country has to be in recession before it is considered a depression, but I am sure we will find out.
I think we are at the beginning of a depression.

 

We're going to be in severe recession very shortly, I think. I'm planning accordingly. However, a recession/depression isn't a completely terrible thing -- it will even out in the end, though it will be hard in the near future.

(BTW, the term "depression" was coined by the government in the 1930's in the context of, "it's not a recession, it's just a little depression." Heh. Some things, including government denial of problems, never change.)

But on the topic of things not being completely terrible -- as an example, I just bought some needed office supplies at a major office supply store.

2" Three ring binders were over $10 each.
Reams of copy paper were $9 each
Manila folders were out of sight

I spent $114 on what would have been $20-30 worth of supplies a few months ago. I'm doing my taxes, so I verified this.

Most of the supplies I bought are made in china, and I suspect the exorbitant prices are a mix of a weak US dollar and the cost of fuel to transport things, and the cost of oil affecting the cost of plastic.

However, this makes me wonder if it won't soon be cheaper to manufacture stuff at home vs. import it. At $10 a three ring binder (I remember when these were $3.99 not too long ago!) there's a LOT of wiggle room for a US manufacturer to step in and make a profit. Other office supplies, likewise. And having US manufacturers appear again means more jobs. Heck, we might even start exporting again, if the dollar remains weak (and everyone else's strong.)

Also, as costs go up, and inflation takes hold, you know all those too-expensive loans people have? The folks who can hang on to their houses for a few years will suddenly find out that their houses aren't quite so expensive. Likewise with other loans. Wages will, eventually, go up in response to the inflation, effectively reducing the real cost of the loans. It'll be ugly short term, but things will work out in the end.

-- Leva

 

I feel we are in a recession already, and feel it is certain that a depression is on it's way.

No we are not in a recession. See Herman Cain's article below. Here is a quote from the article:

It is worth repeating. We are in an economic correction of our national economy, not a recession. Negative economic hyperbole causes employers and investors to become hesitant, which could unnecessarily stimulate a further slowdown in the economy.

A link to the article:
http://www.hermancain.com/news/press-opinion-021108.asp


We may slip into a recession but the media and liberals in general are feeding that frenzy.

 

A recession is defined as a negative economic growth that occurs for more than half a year.

Correct.

Here is an article about the difference between recession and depression. We are close to a recession but not in one yet and we are not even in the same room with a depression.

So how can we tell the difference between a recession and a depression? A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.

A link to the information:
http://economics.about.com/cs/businesscycles/a/depressions_2.htm

 

I would say heading for a depression! Things are looking bad!

 

The only reason things are not worse is because the government has been rushing around like crazy doing all sorts of things to prevent a total crash and burn. At some point the govt. will run out of short term patches...

Larry Birkett wrote the book "Coming Economic Earthquake" and when he was asked a number of years later if he felt he'd been wrong because it hadn't occurred, his answer was that it just meant it hadn't happened yet and the longer before it happens the deeper it will go. He also wrote "Whatever Happened to the American Dream" which is an eye opener.

 

We may slip into a recession but the media and liberals in general are feeding that frenzy.

Yes, of course it's the liberals and the liberal media's fault. And the economy is doing just great! Dandy! Couldn't be better! :bouncy:



Actually, G.Bush told the truth for once when he said we weren't heading into a recession. Because we're already in one.

 

A recession is "defined" as being two quarters of negative growth which we have not as of yet had... however, if you look at GDP for 4th quarter 07 it was only 0.6% where previous quarter was 4.2%...so as you can see we most definitely have come to a screeching halt.. the predictions are that this quarter will be our first negative quarter..it ends 3/31..

In any case the worst part of this is not a recession or depression IMO but stagflation ( declining growth with rising inflation).. it is a bad combination and it in fact is upon us now and by all information I have seen...it is the most difficult to come out of.

...But even more frightening is the shaky ground that the entire financial system is standing on... it is imperative that people read and research for themselves to find out what is actually happening in that world as it will have deep ramifications for the entire world.

 

I believe the stage we're entering hasn't been named yet because it hasn't happened lately.
Every empire that has ever come into existence has collapsed when the demand for energy has outstripped the supply of energy.

In other words, all previous empires have gotten "too big for their britches" and kind of fallen apart. They expanded too fast, squandered resources, ticked off too many people at once, got self righteous, too murderous, etc. and eventually couldn't support all the efforts on all the fronts.

I'm thinking our empire has reached the point of collapse, something that has always happened, but this time there is a fundamental difference between this collapse and the previous ones.

The other empires collapsed when they couldn't supply food, ammuntion, clothes and other essentials to the troops and the colonizing forces and the people, etc.
the difference is that the previous empires relied on the energy provided by renewable energy resources to maintain themselves, their infrastructure, their food supply and their aspirations for growth.
When those empires began to starve for energy (for whatever reason) they collapsed, couldn't maintain the expansion, couldn't keep the infrasturcture maintained, and kindly fizzled out. During and after the collapse, the renewable resources were still available to individuals and smaller groups/ towns to carry on with life as it had been. The collapse was simply the lack of surplus energy to continue investing in expansion or in maintenence of the infrastructure and a recession back to something sustainable.

For the past hundred years, the growth of this empire has been been fueled by an unlimited supply of a highly concentrated energy (oil) that has been available essentially for free. The expansion of this empire has been unstoppable as a result and it has grown to be the worlds first truly globlal empire as well. We have had an unlimited supply of concentrated energy that is transportable anywhere. We have used it to essentially strip the earth of much of the resources it holds...copper, iron, minerals, coal, the rest of the oil, etc. We have also had 3 generations of people know nothing other than an unlimited supply of cheap energy. We have forgotten how to survive on renewable resources over the past few generations. The knowledge gained about how to survive on our own since the dawn of time has been lost. As we exhaust this energy supply, ther is essentailly no limit to haow far back we will need to recede before we reach sustainable. We haven't done that in our lives, neither did our parents, or their parents, really. Not really in the sense that many of us would die the first winter we didn't have magically presurized hot water piped into magically self warming houses and a weekly ride to and from a grocery store magically full of food whenever we want it.

Another significant difference between our collapse and the previous ones is the speed with which this one will likely happen. Rome and Greece and Egypt and the Mayans, etc. slowly crashed over a hundred years or more. They experienced a long slow permanent recession fueled by the ability of everyone to survive on their own wits and their own experience and their own fuel supplies as they had always done. We have no such wits or experience or abilities ot use the fuel supplies at hand. Our extravagent excesses are fueled by oil. Our food, clothing and shelter are also fueled by oil. We've never known any different.

I believe this recession is the beginning of the permanent collapse of this empire. I pretend I'm one of the ones who is doing something about it. I'm kidding myself to think I could survive my first winter if my empire collapsed faster than I was prepared for it to do so.

Recession? Depression? First (and last) global collapse? Just words, really. Just thoughts and theories, too.

 

Actually, there's no long-term oil shortage.

Right now, with currently available technology, it is possible to manufacture crude oil. And there is a demonstration plant that is operational that is doing this. Yep, we can make it in a refinery. Not pump it out of the ground, but rather actually make it from raw materials.

The raw materials for said crude oil, for the demonstration plant, is turkey guts. But anything carbon based -- from manure to crop waste to household trash -- can be used in this process.

And at current oil prices, it's cost-effective. The last estimate I heard had the cost of production between $30-40 a barrel.

Also, because we're not introducing new carbon into ecosystem, it's more environmentally friendly. (i.e., the carbon from the turkey guts comes from their feed, and the plant matter that made the feed drew the carbon out of the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide.) AND it uses raw material that would otherwise cause pollution and be dumped in landfills.

There will probably be some tough times as we transition from mining oil to making oil, but it's eminently doable. I suspect the biggest obstacles will be legal, financial (making the refineries), and political (big oil companies are going to be less than thrilled.) As well as adjusting mindsets.

The more expensive fossil oil gets? The more likely we'll see plants making oil in the near future.

-- Leva

 

Algae based biodiesel

In a recent advertisement in a national periodical I read that a scientist has developed an algae based method of producing biodiesel that could produce 20,000 times the output per acre per year than corn. I immediately thought of my government as once again, backing the wrong horse.
Everything that is planted into the ground is going up in astronomical amounts because my government subsidizes corn to the point that farmers, and more importantly agrabusiness, will forsake other crops for the corn-based biohoax.
Only in the private sector can someone look down into a poorly maintained swimming pool and see a solution to a problem that the federal government could conceivably bring down an entire economy by doing the wrong thing, again!

Dan

 

Thermal depolymerization

I just did a bit of searching and it's costing $80 a barrel to manufacture (rather than pump from the ground) crude oil. And that's for a demonstration plant that is "new technology" -- as I recall (though the wiki article didn't cover this) they've had to work a large number of bugs out of the process.

Fossil oil is what, $109 a barrel now?

I'd love to see some newer numbers on their profit margin. Oil's been over $100 a barrel for a good longtime.

One would also note the relative small scale of the plant and that they're still making it at $80 a barrel. Means you could have localized production of oil rather shipping it (with the cost and environmental hazards that entails), using local resources to make it.

I can think of a few oil-producing countries that would be quite dismayed by that idea.

-- Leva

 

Thermal depolymerization

I just did a bit of searching and it's costing $80 a barrel to manufacture (rather than pump from the ground) crude oil. And that's for a demonstration plant that is "new technology" -- as I recall (though the wiki article didn't cover this) they've had to work a large number of bugs out of the process.

Fossil oil is what, $109 a barrel now?

I'd love to see some newer numbers on their profit margin. Oil's been over $100 a barrel for a good longtime.

One would also note the relative small scale of the plant and that they're still making it at $80 a barrel. Means you could have localized production of oil rather shipping it (with the cost and environmental hazards that entails), using local resources to make it.

I can think of a few oil-producing countries that would be quite dismayed by that idea.

-- Leva

The problem is the same one as biofuels - the energy return for the amount of energy required is quite poor, which means it will never be an answer on any scale. The one independent analysis I've seen set the Energy returned over energy invested as negative - that is, you don't get anything out of the process except a cool result that looks interesting. But it can't scale.

Sharon

 

Actually, G.Bush told the truth for once when he said we weren't heading into a recession. Because we're already in one.

LOL, That's the same thing I thought when I heard that. Kinda like when his daddy said, 'read my lips, no new taxes'.

 

Living in northern Ontario I am envious (confession time) of my friends and neighbours to the south (U.S.) who can plant or just about to do so. It will be well into May or early June before the last frost when we can plant. Granted I can begin a few things indoors, but have not had much luck in the past with doing so!
I too was listening to CNN this morning as reports arrived on the latest about the stock market. Canadians lost dollars as well as ours went down many points. While I do not feel sorry for huge corporations and/or banks I do feel bad for the "average joe" who has $$$ invested and will lose a great deal.
Gas continues to climb--we now pay $4.60 for a gallon of regular. Our home is heated with fuel oil-and it just seems I get one bill for fill up paid when a couple days later the fuel truck arrives again. It has cost close to $2000 for heat this winter, and it is still not over--another storm on the way for tomorrow with a possible 6 inches of snow. And we have a fuel oil/wood furnace combination for backup-but it still has cost that much!
The grocery store is another "fun place" these days as many items are on the rise. I read a report about folks trying their best to buy canning jars from Ebay and having a challenge since they sell out almost as quickly as they receive any. People are seriously thinking of that garden, canning, and preserving.
In this area there is concern for many seniors who having been paying out a huge portion of what little income they have just to stay warm.The mayor of one of the cities has put a proposal to the government to take action to help provide an alternative source of heating for seniors--making the switch from regular fuel oil to natural gas which is cheaper.
We live in interesting times, but perhaps it will wake up many as to their lifestyles and choices and redirect them back to a more self sufficient way of doing things and less dependent on outside sources.

 

We are heading into something - and I agree it is very different from anything we have experienced before.

We are so dependent on foreign merchandise, food, fuel, etc., we are at their mercy. What will they demand in exchange for food and more fuel?

No things are not OK and no it isn't caused by the liberals - or the conservatives - it is caused by both wings of the one party. We have no liberals and no conservatives. We have only greedy, self-interested politicians, bought and paid for by corporations. We simply must stop supporting this horror by pretending there is a difference.


Every alternative for fuel, meets with a 'well, it won't work - won't be enough' or some excuse. First off, we probably are not going to have another energy source that is primarily one source. It will more than likely be many different things.

I just do not for a moment believe there aren't alternatives out there. It will take someone with some clout and some money to bring them to the public. That certainly will not be our government - not until the last drop of black gold has been sucked from this country.

 

We are currently in a recession which will soon meet the requirements of being a depression. A recession is two quarters of negative gross national product and any more negative quarters past that is a depression. Either seventy or eighty percent of our gross national product is from consumer spending. Do you see the vast majority of folks out there spending any time soon? Most folks are having a hard time covering mortgage/rent, fuel (car & house heating) and food. Clothes are probably going to be put on the "optional" list this year.

If I were investing in stocks, I'd probably invest in seed companies and whoever it is that makes canning jars. Providing of course they can do it at a profit considering what they would be paying for raw materials and fuel.

We are in a huge scramble to plant gardens (seeds, tillers, shovels, rakes, watering systems) and get the materials we need (canning jars, plastic buckets, salt, etc.) to store the harvest after we get it. We are also making stuff to sell at the farmer's markets, flower baskets for Mother's day, vegetable starts, seeds, day old chicks, ducklings, etc. We figure everyone else will be wanting to plant gardens and have a few "pet" chickens to lay eggs so we may as well be the ones to supply them with the stuff they need.