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The political nitwitery and conspiracy theories notwithstanding, what is being seen is the result of a poor-conceived inventory management system called "just-in-time". It's hardly a new concept, but it really took hold in the US during the 1980s (the "Decade of Greed"). In its basic form, the end receiver keeps little to no inventory on hand and reorders inventory as needed—often multiple times per week. This works when there is no disruption to the supply chain, but, as is seen, it completely breaks down if the supply chain has issues (transportation of goods, manufacture of goods, etc.).
Most of your post is incorrect.

JIT is a warehouse function not end user.
 

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okay, so you know me, but I am going to put a positive spin on this.

1. shortages happen - people can't get what they need
2. people realize they can either do without it or make it themselves (like formula can be homemade)
3. people feel a bit of joy from doing something for themselves
4. joy is uplifting
5. more people feel uplifted, and the feeling spreads

(as a side note, there are very few bare shelves in this area. I don't know about formula because I have no need for it.)
Unless you are a "Me Firster" like 80% of our nation.
 
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China has really shut down. Is that the root cause for all these shortages?

I heard from a local source at the docks in Kalifornia, that there are only 8-12 container ships at anchor, waiting to be unloaded. Where the heck are they..... Well, they are off the coast of China.

Over 400 ships waiting off the docks of Shanghai, alone.

"Data from Project44, which tracks global supply chains, showed that shipment delays between China and major U.S. and European ports have quadrupled since late March, when China shut down the city of Shanghai, which has the world's busiest container port."



Shipping queues are getting worse in China — and other parts of the world.

Nearly 20% of container vessels globally are currently waiting outside congested ports, according to a survey published last Thursday by Windward, an Israel-based global maritime data firm.

Almost a quarter of those unberthed ships are stuck outside Chinese ports. That's 412 ships, up 58% since February, the survey added.

It's clear that lockdowns in China have caused a bottleneck, the firm said.

Across China, at least 27 cities are under full or partial lockdown, which could be impacting up to 185 million residents across the country, according to latest CNN calculation on Wednesday. Beijing effectively shut down its largest district this week.

President Xi Jinping signaled this week that China would continue with its zero tolerance approach to COVID. On Thursday, Xi told all levels of government to "resolutely adhere to the zero-COVID policy."
 

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They never dive deeper than "supply chain issues"

seven states had between 40-50% of baby formula products out of stock as of early April, 26 states are now struggling with supply.

"This issue has been compounded by supply chain issues, product recalls and historic inflation," Datasembly CEO Ben Reich said. "Unfortunately, given the unprecedented amount of volatility to the category, we anticipate baby formula to continue to be one of the most affected products in the market."


I don't understand this......

I was in my local Sam's Club yesterday and I made it a point to walk by the "Baby Isle". They are stacked very deep with everything.... Formula, diapers, wipes, etc..... There are even pallets and pallets of baby formula on the high shelves, wrapped in plastic.


............
 

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okay, so you know me, but I am going to put a positive spin on this.

1. shortages happen - people can't get what they need
2. people realize they can either do without it or make it themselves (like formula can be homemade)
3. people feel a bit of joy from doing something for themselves
4. joy is uplifting
5. more people feel uplifted, and the feeling spreads

(as a side note, there are very few bare shelves in this area. I don't know about formula because I have no need for it.)
You and I realize formula can be made

my youngest daughter (17) told me about the formula shortage last night , I said I am aware and people will have to make their own for a while.

You can't do that ! she said

oh , but you can, been doing it for a long time would you like me to go grab you the recipe , my wife backed me up and there was a sudden understanding that mom and dad might know a thing or two.

people are convinced they need a store bought product for so many things
 

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Discussion Starter · #26 ·
I heard from a local source at the docks in Kalifornia, that there are only 8-12 container ships at anchor, waiting to be unloaded. Where the heck are they..... Well, they are off the coast of China.

Over 400 ships waiting off the docks of Shanghai, alone.

"Data from Project44, which tracks global supply chains, showed that shipment delays between China and major U.S. and European ports have quadrupled since late March, when China shut down the city of Shanghai, which has the world's busiest container port."



Shipping queues are getting worse in China — and other parts of the world.

Nearly 20% of container vessels globally are currently waiting outside congested ports, according to a survey published last Thursday by Windward, an Israel-based global maritime data firm.

Almost a quarter of those unberthed ships are stuck outside Chinese ports. That's 412 ships, up 58% since February, the survey added.

It's clear that lockdowns in China have caused a bottleneck, the firm said.

Across China, at least 27 cities are under full or partial lockdown, which could be impacting up to 185 million residents across the country, according to latest CNN calculation on Wednesday. Beijing effectively shut down its largest district this week.

President Xi Jinping signaled this week that China would continue with its zero tolerance approach to COVID. On Thursday, Xi told all levels of government to "resolutely adhere to the zero-COVID policy."
Green is cargo, red is tanker - This is as of right now

Ecoregion Water Slope Map Font

Plant Map Terrestrial plant Font Pattern


 
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IDK, I guess Im just a "conspiracy theorist" so dont pay any attention to me but if I see a group of powerful people, writing books and giving speeches about how the west should collapse....how we should all own nothing, live in pods, and eat fake meat.....how we're going to have pandemics [ before we have them ], and when we get them we find out they were manufactured in a lab partially funded by those same people....its very difficult for me to believe that it isnt all being orchestrated by the very people who promised all those things.

Makes me a kook, I guess. In my book, if you threaten to kill your neighbor next tuesday and your neighbor turns up dead on that day...there's every chance in the world that you killed him. Any detective worth his salt would have to be a little bit of a "conspiracy theorist", and assume the same.

Im not a "coincidence theorist". I cannot believe that everything in the world is simply "unfolding" by pure circumstance, and every bad outcome is the result of well intentioned blunders. The world simply does not work that way.
 

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Green is cargo, red is tanker - This is as of right now

View attachment 110072
View attachment 110073

Looks like more than 8-12 container ships floating around out there.
 

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IDK, I guess Im just a "conspiracy theorist" so dont pay any attention to me but if I see a group of powerful people, writing books and giving speeches about how the west should collapse....how we should all own nothing, live in pods, and eat fake meat.....how we're going to have pandemics [ before we have them ], and when we get them we find out they were manufactured in a lab partially funded by those same people....its very difficult for me to believe that it isnt all being orchestrated by the very people who promised all those things.

Makes me a kook, I guess. In my book, if you threaten to kill your neighbor next tuesday and your neighbor turns up dead on that day...there's every chance in the world that you killed him. Any detective worth his salt would have to be a little bit of a "conspiracy theorist", and assume the same.

Im not a "coincidence theorist". I cannot believe that everything in the world is simply "unfolding" by pure circumstance, and every bad outcome is the result of well intentioned blunders. The world simply does not work that way.
Shame on you for alluding to the World Economic Forum (WEF) and their influence, be it plain that they even have puppeteers. They are about as evil as they come. They say right on their website that America cannot and will not be the single world power by 2030. Now we all know, that cannot happen unless the USA diminishes in power.

Now, I can better understand some fuzzy foreigners wanting America to 'go down'. What I cannot understand, is a born child of the USA, wanting to destroy our own country. Yep, you heard me right. The likes of many of the Demo-Socialist players in DC, in our State Gov'ts and nearly all of the City Gov'ts of the 25 largest in our country want the desires of the WEF to come to pass.

WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH SHORTAGES....????? Shortages, supply-chain issues, inflation, etc., are just another tool of the WEF to help bring America down.

Yes, Adirondackian, I agree with you.


.........
 

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If we had a president maybe some of the problems would not be so bad. I keep forgetting, we did have such a president. But by some miracle a man hiding in his basement somehow got more votes than he did even though the good president got more votes than he did in the first election.

We have made our own problems by letting a small group lie and steal their way into power. We will have to take care of that problem first.
 

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If we had a president maybe some of the problems would not be so bad. I keep forgetting, we did have such a president. But by some miracle a man hiding in his basement somehow got more votes than he did even though the good president got more votes than he did in the first election.

We have made our own problems by letting a small group lie and steal their way into power. We will have to take care of that problem first.
He wasnt hiding behind razor wire for no reason. For the first 6-8 weeks they were just braced inside their bunker, waiting for impact. I think they couldnt believe they got away with it.
 

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BS...The system works just fine until somone purposely impedes it....It's just like prepping for disaster by storing your own food-- no matter how much you store, it WILL run out if the situation lasts long enough and you don't have a continuing source to replenish it.
Well Doc, it's kind a like the two of us trying to outrun a grizzly. I don't have to run faster than the grizzly, just a little faster than you.
 

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BS...The system works just fine until somone purposely impedes it....It's just like prepping for disaster by storing your own food-- no matter how much you store, it WILL run out if the situation lasts long enough and you don't have a continuing source to replenish it.
JIT works just fine until someone purposely impedes it? You clearly don’t have experience in manufacturing.

JIT and Six Sigma can help a company squeeze a bit of extra profitability out of the bottom line, but they rely on the (often misplaced) confidence that one can establish a 100% reliable system. It’s not until you get into brown/black-belt levels of Six Sigma that you see that the system is so reliant on contingency risk-mitigation that, if one truly wants an uninterrupted production schedule, one doesn’t rely on JIT. The problem is that most companies base their risk assessment of the contingencies they’ve experienced only in recent history, and end up trying to take the full reward (and risk) of what the early concepts in Six Sigma teach.

Your analogy to prepping is actually perfect, but doesn’t align like you suggest. Almost no preps are made for a forever scope. Sure, to be able to lay up a prep knowing that you’ll never again have to worry about something would be great, but that very rarely applies.

Most preps are established on a 30/60/90/180/360-day scope, which, coincidentally, is how pre-JIT sourcing-planning was done. A production planner would look at any given widget, and assess the standard time to get it from a fresh PO, and then weight that according to the reliability of the sourcing and the impact of a shortage, and buy accordingly.

JIT looks at what the supplier of that widget can do when the system is working perfectly and orders accordingly. If, in good times, a supplier can reliably deliver a shipment every two weeks, they order a two-week supply at a time. That works until it doesn’t, and it doesn’t require someone purposely impeding it for it to stop working.

JIT manufacturing is analogous to the people who live in the city and buy their ingredients for dinner every day at the corner bodega. Our lifestyle is pre-JIT.
 

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and then you get a bad component , the place my son and wife work is experiencing a batch of bad bolts.

you only know when you apply a certain amount of torque to one to test it that it is bad not hardened properly nearly cause one injury already.

causing a lot of sheered off bolts in the field it is a very common fastener size used on several product lines , what a mess and because many of the facilities have hoppers of these bolts new got dumped in with old and now all get scrapped making bad worse.
 

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It would be interesting to know what that "Ralphs" brand cost. That price sticker is for Horizon Organic milk, which is expensive on a good day.
The store brand goes for around $3.99/gallon in my area of SoCal (San Diego area vs Los Angeles). I looked it up and the Horizon milk is the same price here as in the photo.

That said, a lot of times lately the cheaper milk is gone and if you must have milk, often the more expensive options are what you have left.
 
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