What happened to all the $7/gallon gas predictions?

1231 Views 30 Replies 20 Participants Last post by uyk7, Dec 3, 2008

lorian

Discussion Starter · Dec 1, 2008

Just curious,

many on here where predicting gas prices to go through the roof.......or at least posting articles of people that were.

so are you surprised by what has happened? Yes or no?

Do you think astronomical prices will still come back and keep soaring in the near future?

1 - 20 of 31 Posts

wvstuck

· #2 · Dec 1, 2008

A catch 22... If the economy grows so does gas prices, but we may have gone from $7 a gallon to unemployed and unable to afford $2 a gallon... If the stock market rebounds, consumer spending goes up and the housing market stabilizes then gas will climb even higher. If those things don't happen we will be in deep, deep recession or headed toward cold, dark depression.

Pick your poison... Great economy and high gas, or a failing economy and cheap gas... I'll take whats behind door number three.... Show him what he's won Bob!

seedspreader

· #3 · Dec 1, 2008

Demand is way down, as a result of the poor economy. This goes to show how much WE the American people control the price and how little control the "Evil Big Oil" (EBO) does.

Even the biggest oil cartel, OPEC is worried about the costs.

But don't be discouraged it will climb back up again... give the market a bit of time to catch up.

The next climb will be the one that hurts the most (in my opinion) because it's going to be predicated on inflation. The WHOLE WORLD trades $$$'s for oil, the government has been burning up the printing presses (where do you think those trillions come from?) So the painful climb will be the one where the dollar isn't worth very much and it takes MORE of them to buy that gas.

mamadelbosque

· #4 · Dec 1, 2008

I sure hope it goes back up. I know that probably sounds horrible. Probably assume it comes from someone with tons of money - though the truth couldn't be further from that. But anyways. My reasoning is simple: If it doesnt' all this stuff with alternative energy is going to go out the window, just as it did in the late 70s when oil dropped again. If gas stays at $1.50 or so a gallon, Nobody is going to care about hydrogen or electric cars. Or wind or solar power. Or much of anything else. The only way stuffs going to change is if gas/energy stays high. And we NEED change.

uyk7

· #5 · Dec 1, 2008

Even when the gas prices were high the ethanol industry still couldn't make it without subsidies from the gov. I would prefer lower gas prices so that, eventually, I can buy solar at a cheaper price.

BTW, when the dollar collapses it won't matter what gas/oil price is.

.

Shinsan

· #6 · Dec 1, 2008

It's only a temporary drop. The price will eventually rise beyond what its previous high was. Just don't know precisely when.

Graystone

· #7 · Dec 1, 2008

I am surprised at how quickly the price of gas has dropped. At the peak a month or so back I paid $4.04 per gallon, today I filled her up with $1.68 per gallon gas.

The âexpertsâ who were predicting $7.00-$10.00 for gas have no more idea than I do where prices will be in the future.

Oldcountryboy

· #8 · Dec 1, 2008

I hear these low gas prices is only gonna last about a year and then they will start going back up again.

I think everyone should use this opportunity to do all they can to get out of debt if you can and prepare for the worse.

G

· #9 · Dec 1, 2008

We're in a period of deflation. Which is a very bad thing.

brreitsma

· #10 · Dec 1, 2008

There is a company nationwide now, forgot the information will have to look it up again. It allows a person to prebuy for future use and lock in the current price that it is bought at. I am going to be looking at this.

texican

· #11 · Dec 1, 2008

When, not IF, Israel thumps Iran, the price of gas will go double digits in days....if it can be found at all.

If you can, stock up now.

Ernie

· #12 · Dec 1, 2008

You're going to hit $7 gas before you know it. Don't get too excited because we aren't there yet.

Frankly, I think that currently the price of gas is completely disconnected from the laws of supply and demand. The demand hasn't went down that much. I just drove in from Kentucky this morning and saw more vehicles on the road than ever. Looked like high demand to me across three states.

The supply hasn't increased either. They're actually losing supply in places, and as the dollar falls then our good friends the Sauds sail their tankers east towards Bejing as opposed to our shores.

No, I think the oil companies are in complete control of the price and they cranked the amount back down to keep Americans from storming their gates. Can you imagine if the economic news was as bad as it has been lately AND gasoline was over $4 a gallon?

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BRYAN

· #13 · Dec 1, 2008

I have to agree with Texican, as well as some others, this deflationary period is temporary. It likely will be followed by rapid inflation in a year or so. I'm looking at the present as a welcome oportunity to continue to get my house in order for more difficult financial times ahead. As for the altermative energies, while we need to continue to do R&D, they are far from ready to provide even a fraction of energy needs even at greatly reduced consumtion rates.

uyk7

· #14 · Dec 1, 2008

Frankly, I think that currently the price of gas is completely disconnected from the laws of supply and demand. The demand hasn't went down that much.

I think the same can be said of high gas prices. There was no logical reason for gas prices to be so high.

.

Gary in ohio

· #15 · Dec 1, 2008

The gas speculators (the ones people said didnt cause the problem) got caught up in the financial issues and lost a bunch of money that they no longer have to invest in oil futures. That with the small decrease in use due to the financial issues has let the prices stableize

lorian

Discussion Starter · #16 · Dec 1, 2008

I agree that inflation will take over again and gas prices will be driven up, but truth is no one REALLY knows or can accurately predict it.
And I heard NO ONE suggest at any time, during the last 6 months or so, that gas would actually go down for a period of time.

I too have been thinking cheap gas is not such a great thing, for two reasons: Alternative energy progress will slow down and hoards of city people will move to the country because the commute will be cheap!

G

· #17 · Dec 1, 2008

lorian said:
And I heard NO ONE suggest at any time, during the last 6 months or so, that gas would actually go down for a period of time.

I was reading that for months at the financial news sites, but I don't remember if I posted it here.

I can't possibly post everything I read.

seedspreader

· #18 · Dec 1, 2008

lorian said:
I agree that inflation will take over again and gas prices will be driven up, but truth is no one REALLY knows or can accurately predict it.
And I heard NO ONE suggest at any time, during the last 6 months or so, that gas would actually go down for a period of time.

I too have been thinking cheap gas is not such a great thing, for two reasons: Alternative energy progress will slow down and hoards of city people will move to the country because the commute will be cheap!

Maybe you weren't listening or reading or searching???

http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=9568

Gasoline demand in the United States may have reached its peak, as rising prices lead consumers to make long-term decisions that will weaken demand in the years to come, according to a new analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), an IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS) company.

The report, Drivers Turn the Corner in the United States, conducted by CERAâs global oil service predicts that U.S. gasoline demand will likely decline in 2008 for the first time in 17 years. If petroleum prices stay at or near their current levels, 2007 could prove to have been the peak year for U.S. gasoline demand.Gas Prices

âAmericans are now driving less and demanding greater fuel efficiency from their vehicles when they do drive,â said Aaron Brady, CERA director, global oil. âAutomakers are responding by accelerating the shift in their model mix. Both short- and long-term signals are all pointing toward decreasing future demand.â

U.S. gasoline prices are already at their highest level ever, even in inflation-adjusted terms. Increases in real income over the past 30 years mean that gasoline prices are not yet causing as much economic pain as they did during the 1980s. But that level is now quickly approaching. CERA estimates that such a âpain pointâ would be an annual average price of just over $4.20 per gallonânot far from current levels.

Though the current U.S. economic slowdown explains some of the decline in gasoline demand, long-term shifts in consumer behavior that began as much as two years ago in response to high prices are the key drivers to lower demand, the report says

and I can't really figure out if your post is some sort of boast or an actual question.

I posted this in AUGUST regarding fuel costs and demand.

arabian knight said:
arabian knight said:

Just the TALK about different things like Off Shore Drilling Tapping oil reserves, crude prices are DOWN over 27 dollars from there high a few weeks ago..NOW if McCain would also change his stance on ANWR ~!! Things change over the years so people that are knowledgeable enough o know this can change their mind on things as the situation warrants~!!!!!. So McCain to be even more electable should be changing his idea on ANWR. AND also the biggest boost he could get would be if he came out and Backed the FairTax Bill and THAT along with his energy policy would get him into the highest office in the land. YEAH.

Click to expand...

Cool, now the rhetoric from the other angle comes in. It wasn't the "talk of drilling", it was the 10 BILLION miles that American's drove LESS in just the month of May of this year.

It's called supply and demand.

http://www.homesteadingtoday.com/showthread.php?t=264284&highlight=drove+less+miles

In a few months someone from another angle will come on and say something like... "I thought prices were supposed to stay low because..."

As far as the "no one can know" ideology, well there are a lot of articles out there (google "gasoline demand lower") that predicted the price dropping, just like there are a lot of articles out there right now saying, hold on to your hats because inflation is going to cause Gas to rise again.

Take it or leave it, but as with any prediction that doesn't come from the Good Lord Above, some will be right, some will be wrong. I don't recall anyone putting any dates to anything.

And that actually reminds me that Michael Kawalek said this:

The drop is just part of the yearly cycle of prices that has been going on for years. I started recording the price of gas in 1990. As you scan through years of records you can see a conspicuous bimodal rise and fall. Almost without exception, the highest price of the year is around the end of May or beginning of June. Thereafter, it drops during the summer and reaches a bottum at the end of November or beginning of December. Come January, the prices will start to inch back up again.

Of course though, this years peak was higher than last years peak, and I can pretty much guarranty that this falls trough will be more than last. Back in 2005 I predicted that gas would be 3$/gallon in 2007, and last year I predicted 2008's gas would be 4$. Pychic, no, graphically predictable, yes! Next year; maybe 4.50 to 5.00$/gallon.

One thing though is for certain. When prices go down this November, every politician up for election will claim the decrease is the result of their policies! Count on it!
Michael

http://www.homesteadingtoday.com/showthread.php?t=263658&highlight=prices+every+year

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Aintlifegrand

· #19 · Dec 1, 2008

ladycat said:
I was reading that for months at the financial news sites, but I don't remember if I posted it here.

I can't possibly post everything I read.

Yes you did... you and I actually had a conversation about it in relationship to deflation and how devestating that would prove to be... even though gas would go down temporarily...as deflation is the hardest to manage in a financial crisis...Hoover tried it in very bad ways.. turning crops under and killing whole herds just to try and get the prices up...it is really a bad place to be for our nation..

stranger

· #20 · Dec 1, 2008

texican said:
When, not IF, Israel thumps Iran, the price of gas will go double digits in days....if it can be found at all.

If you can, stock up now.

right, if it can be found?

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