Weather question

Discussion in 'Homesteading Questions' started by Shygal, Feb 18, 2005.

  1. Shygal

    Shygal Unreality star Supporter

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    Do you ever wonder how weathermen pick their high and low temperature forecast numbers? I do. Why do they always say "The high will be 48 and the low 26" or something? Why not pick 50 and 25? Why do they pick these numbers?

    Today on my yahoo home page, they had our low tonight predicted to be 2.

    2 degrees. Why not just say 0? There isn't that much difference between 2 and 0 when you get down to it. Do they feel sorry for numbers that don't get used much so they use 2? Do they get paid for being creative? Does the number 2 have a lobbyist that goes to weathermen and convinces them to use the number 2? Did 0 do something wrong?

    Just now I noticed they updated the low. To 3.
     
  2. Beeman

    Beeman Well-Known Member

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    Did you ever go to the carnival and see the man that will guess your weight? They went to the same school as the weatherman. If they say 2 they're OK from 5 to -1, If they say 3 it just changes the acceptable spread.
     

  3. FrankTheTank

    FrankTheTank Well-Known Member

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    They just want to be a little different from the next forecaster and computer models come out at intervals during the day, so sometimes they'll tweak the numbers.

    I'll have to search, but a computer model (govt) can spit out temperatures at different heights (from ground level up)...i believe a lot of forecasters look at these numbers, look at the climatological norms, etc and pick a number that seems reasonable.

    Its also interesting to note that foreign computer models (the ECMWF, UKMET, GGEM) also spit out maps for North America (along with the rest of the world). These are can be very accurate models(my personal fave is the ECMWF--Euro model). SOme local forecasters look at these models for upcoming trends (the American model can be very inaccurate!--but it forecasts out further (days) then the other models).

    Looking @ the euro out to 168hrs...Vermont looks to stay damn cold!
     
  4. Canucklehead

    Canucklehead Active Member

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    Well, this is my first post so Hi!! to everyone. I've been around here for quite a long time and just decided to register today. Great site. :cool:

    I tried my best to find a good answer for you... and interesting topic which got me thinking a bit. You can google it all you want but the basic idea I got is simple. Meteorologists, use a combination of historical weather data (much dates back 100 years), and current (live) information. Live information can come from satellites, weather balloons, and land based stations. This is all fed into computer systems which are able to compute the best average weighting the current conditions against the past. This combination of data, manipulated the right way will be correct more or less most of the time. Even though we all hate the weatherman :haha:

    So.... these averages are what leads to the 4 versus 0 and -1 instead of 2. Just keep in mind... 2 or 3 degrees can make quite a difference in a garden. Best not to average down or worse up in this case.

    I have a good weatherman :D ... Most TV weathermen are not meteorologists. :eek:

    Talk to ya'll again!
     
  5. FrankTheTank

    FrankTheTank Well-Known Member

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    I see your in VT...so you could also read the Area Forecast Discussion(i think--AFD for short)

    for Burlington
    http://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.fxus61.KBTV.html

    A meterologist writes these AFDs...they are the ones who issue the warnings, watches, etc...a little indepth for some...

    heres the page that you enter in an airport code...Burlington's being KBTV ...and select the model you want...i usually looks at the sfc(surface)...

    http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm
     
  6. Windy in Kansas

    Windy in Kansas In Remembrance

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    Computer programs along with a GOOD meteorologist can provide some pretty accurate forecasts.

    Please, no number rounding, I want the closest possible forecast. As Canucklehead
    pointed out a degree or two can make a big difference when gardening.

    One local television station provides a three degree forecast guarantee. I'm happy to say that most of the television stations around here use certified meteorologists instead of just weather reporters. Most local newscasts have a loyal following simply because of their anchor weathermen.

    Wunderground.com uses the National Weather Service forecast. It changes several times throughout the day as factors such as fronts progress differently.

    I don't question how they arrive at the forecast highs and lows, but I do want them as accurate as possible. Nope, no rounding please.
     
  7. Big Sky Country

    Big Sky Country Well-Known Member

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    When I lived in West Glacier, I swore the weathermen were in their little "no window" office smoking a crack pipe.

    That area up there is surrounded by mountains and they couldn't forecast anything to save their butts.

    I don't watch the news anymore, so I figure since it's Montana, you can expect wind/cold/snow during the fall/winter and dry/wind/warm/hot in the spring/summer.
     
  8. Little Quacker in OR

    Little Quacker in OR Well-Known Member

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    :) Well, this is a fun thread. And you people have it right. All of the data is gathered and fed into computers.

    However, no meteorologist will tell you that a forcast is 100% accurate. They can't be. There are too many things like "micro climates(like West Glacier) that make it impossible. Large bodies of water, mountains etc all play a part in what happens in a particular area.

    And then weather fronts will slow down or speed up.

    We are all just spoiled and want everything done for us. Take the forcast from your closest meteorologist and then go outdoors, look around, check the wind, humidity and the barometer and do your own. It's fun and a kick.

    LQ