Peak oil is here

Discussion in 'Homesteading Questions' started by Swampthing, Mar 11, 2005.

  1. Swampthing

    Swampthing Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    101
    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2005
    Peak oil is here.

    This is a 91 page pdf released by the DOE this week detaing peak oil and possible outcomes.

    If you don't believe oil company executives, scientists, geologists, Matt Simmons, energy analysts, independents, etc. will you believe your govt?

    http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf
     
  2. oz in SC

    oz in SC Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,687
    Joined:
    May 13, 2002
    Location:
    SC and soon to be NC
    I believe peak oil has passed if by 'peak' it is meant the world is on the downside of production....

    But there is little to be done about it really,we cannot stop a billion Chinese from wanting to drive cars.

    As someone said on the news this morning,ten years ago China was EXPORTING oil,now it is the worlds second largest consumer of oil.

    So goes the world..
     

  3. Hermit

    Hermit Active Member

    Messages:
    44
    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2004
    Location:
    Eastern United States
    I'm working on a complicated design involving hollow wheels for a vehicle powered by trained ferrets. Once all the oil disappears, I figure I'll make a fortune. :)

    Seriously, I would be happy as a clam if someone would put together a workable electric car. With all the wind and solar power generation system designs getting cheaper and more efficient - it just seems like the way to go.

    It doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever to give money (for oil) to countries that consider themselves to be our economic or military competition (China, Saudi Arabia, etc).

    I've spent a lot of time in Alaska, and the fewer people up there messing up that beautiful wilderness (drilling for oil), the better (IMO). I'd be happier driving less or paying more if our competitors weren't getting our oil money or if it meant that the wilderness would be left as it is.
     
  4. electronrider

    electronrider Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    290
    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2004
    Location:
    West Central Indiana

    This is one of the best summaries I have read on the whole peak oil issue. A lot of information comes out of tinfoil hat type people, who are also worried about shadow governments and the like, so I just cant seem to take them seriously. There is a lot of good information out there, but this report summarizes most of what I've read, and tempers it with the simple truth: we have only a rough calculated guess on this.
     
  5. Swampthing

    Swampthing Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    101
    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2005
    and the +/- is about 10 years. so we're either in deep $**2 or we will be in 10 years...
     
  6. Siryet

    Siryet In Remembrance

    Messages:
    847
    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2002
    Location:
    River Valley, Arkansas
    OZ I normally agree with you but I just can't agree to blame the chinese when we have a high population burning oil at every chance. IE: large SUV's, large p/u trucks for status only, etc.
     
  7. oz in SC

    oz in SC Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,687
    Joined:
    May 13, 2002
    Location:
    SC and soon to be NC
    OR we MAKE those Chinese stop driving cars....

    Joke.

    Hermit instead of ferrets how about specially bred Giant Gerbils???

    Is REALLY worrying about something that CANNOT be controlled going to help?
    Being aware is good but to worry....

    Cheap gas is gone for good...okay we will have to adapt.
     
  8. oz in SC

    oz in SC Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,687
    Joined:
    May 13, 2002
    Location:
    SC and soon to be NC
    Darn it!!!
    I HATE when I post and someone replies at the same time... :haha:

    Anyway I am NOT blaming the Chinese(or the Indians) for wanting to drive cars or using more oil,I am simply stating that is one of the major reasons for the oil 'shortage'...

    China is the 2nd largest consumer of oil but Japan(used to be 2nd largest producer) didn't stop using the same amount of oil,it simply was overtaken by China.

    So now we have China needing XXX billion barrels,Japan STILL needing what it uses and of course the USA....

    This all equals higher prices.

    I cannot blame anyone,not even us greedy Americans.

    It is all about choice.
     
  9. oz in SC

    oz in SC Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    1,687
    Joined:
    May 13, 2002
    Location:
    SC and soon to be NC
    Here is an older article(from before 9/11) about the increased need for oil in Asia.

    www.forbes.com/global/2001/0723/026.html

    US oil consumption is not increasing at anywhere near the rate of Asia,not that it makes much difference to the worlds supply but it isn't ALL USA's 'fault'...

    ''By 2010, Fesharaki projects, Asia will be importing 20 million barrels of oil a day, twice as much as the U.S. does today, 80% of it from the Middle East. China, for instance, which was a net oil exporter as recently as 1993, is now importing 1.4 million barrels a day, a level which will more than double by 2010. ''
     
  10. frugalville

    frugalville Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    93
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2005
    -------------
    An electric car.... There was 2 very successful electric car projects back in the late 90s - early 2000's. Toyota and Honda both had researched, and test marketed completely electric automobiles. Search the net on the subject, you will find it. The owers loved them and although competively priced, had no fossil fuel requirements. They had a separate charging station that was hard wired to your home and would charge overnight. The only issue was limited miles per charge. Anyway, the cars were recalled or bought back and the whole project discontinued even though the oweners were quite happy. Then along comes the -'hybrid' - couldn't imagine the oil lobby had any influence on that one.
    --------------------
    I posted this earlier in another list here. Oil is not really the problem..

    There is oil, but in the future there will not be 'cheap' oil. Right now you can say on average we pay $2.20 a gallon for gasoline. Europe pays closer to $4.00 for the same gallon of gas. Whats the difference in cost ? Taxes. Something you will see getting larger and larger as time continues. The reason oil keeps climbing ( from $10 a barrel in 1999 to $55 a barrel today has to do with 1 thing. The US currency, or dollar as we call it. It is on 'fire' for lack of a better word. This is the same thing you have been taught as 'inflation' what you think of as rising prices. Inflation is not rising prices, inflation is the increase in the amount of dollars that are printed up and dillute their purchasing power.

    Here's a good example from Richard Russell
    beginning with 1945, which certainly wasn't the beginning of the dollar's slide, as it had already slid by 50% because of the then recently ended war. At any rate, they placed the dollar in 1945, at 100%. Russell points out that a subway ride was a nickel, and postage was 3 cents, plus a lot of other comparisons. 15 years later, the dollar was at 61.1% of its 1945 value. In 1970, it was at 45.7%, 1980 21.1%, 1990 13.6%, 2000, 10.5% and in 2003, the buck was worth 9.9% of its 1945 value-purchasing power. In reality though, it was half that, or 4.9% of its value-purchasing power of 1940…before the war.

    The Middle East has just spoken up over the last 5 years and said... Mr. US.. your dollar is becoming more worthless every day.. we have to have more of them to purchase the same amount of goods that we exhange for a barrel of oil.

    Not to mention all of those local jobs that have went overseas to India and China. You are having China, with 1.3 billion people (Us has 270 million) just coming online to their industrial revolution. All those people will be buying goods and cars that use oil. The US is 4% of the worlds population and consumes 25% of the oil... on the cheap because we have the worlds reserve currency. Our govt, when it needs something, just turns on the dollar printing presses, prints more money, and buys what it wants. Every war the US has fought has been paid for by printing up money out of nothing and paying for it. That is why we have 7 trillion of public debt.

    Every working US person has about $350,000 of debt run up by the govt. If we took every bit of wealth in the US.. housing, money, goods, savings..everything owned by everybody it is only about 47 trillion dollars. 90% of it would be sold to pay all outstanding US debts.

    Back to oil... believe what you want about oil but it is being pumped at maximum level and new exploration is practically non-existent. Popuation is swelling and 3rd world countries are all coming online to take a piece of the pie. The middle east 'conflict' is about 1 thing and 1 thing only, a US strategic position in the heart of the globes oil reserves. Helping the locals is a byproduct. Not only are we keeping an eye on our oil interests, but China's main shipping lines as well.

    Their is a slide towards global govt at hand. Why do we pay 50% taxes while companies like your favorite local Wal-Mart produce in China, ship here, pay 1/10 of the labor, have lax environmental regulations, no benefits, local govt tax breaks, and then the federal govt pases a 1 year tax loop that lets US companies that have made their money overseas 'repatriate' that money overseas back to the US, and they only have to pay 3% tax on it. 3friggin %% That's the govt we have.

    Property taxes are on the rise. Why do you think real estate has taken off in price? All these countries that have a trade defecit with the US are coming over and buying anything they can, like land and goods because they know the US dollar will continue to lose value. Even at a local farm auction, 2 suits were bidding up machinery to near retail prices. Guess where it was going... you guessed it.. on a boat to China.

    Of all the things you might want to stock for the future, US dollars are probably not your best option as they become more worthless every year. Search back in this thread for the guy on 'junk silver'... that is the right track..or the internet for 'real money' 'bartering' 'fiat money' and start reading. Knowledge is your best protection from the future.

    As far as oil goes, it will still keep flowing (pending any global conflicts) and we will still keep driving. Everyday will just cost a little more.

    Our govt has us in a catch 22. If oil consumption actually slows down then the TV box cries 'global recession' if consumption is up it's touted as a productive economy. This new speculation in oil by tons of dollars sloshing around our economy looking for a return to fight inflation will eventually help our economy, but hurt the consumer. Our economy is based on consumer consumption. What do you think a new wave of -efficient autos, alternate energy, fuel cells, blah, blah will do ? Make us throw out our current pile of stuff to buy a pile of energy efficient stuff. The bicycle of consumption must continued to be moving, if not it will simply fall over on its side.

    Consumption is so rampant now the govt just give us 'tax rebates' to keep buying. Products don't even see the end of their useful cycle. How many appliances were tossed cause they were not stainless, TV's cause they weren't flat, clothes cause they weren't cool, computers cause they are 'too slow'...

    Also read that over 95% of estimated oil reserves are 'computer simulated' vs actual test drilling.

    Interesting times indeed.
     
  11. Bret F

    Bret F Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    654
    Joined:
    May 4, 2004
    Location:
    Idaho
  12. caballoviejo

    caballoviejo Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    442
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2004
    I remember back in the 1970's when we first had "peak" oil. Then again later before oil went down to $10 per barrel.
     
  13. caberjim

    caberjim Stableboy III

    Messages:
    426
    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2004
    Location:
    Maryland
    The difference is that in the 70s, it was US production that peaked. The current peak that has everyone worried is a global peak. BIG difference. US peaked and other nations were able to take over bulk of the oil production. US lost the ability to fix prices because it had to import more. Problem with global peak is that there is no one to step in and provide more production. Thus the shortage. Demand had outstripped production. Suppy and demand economics. Prices go up and up and up.
     
  14. kabri

    kabri Almst livin the good life

    Messages:
    1,126
    Joined:
    May 14, 2002
    Location:
    W. Washington State
    Gotta say I LOVE my Prius Hybrid car, and at an average of 50MPG that I get, that's saving us a ton $ in gas since I drive 60 +/- miles a day. Hybrid is not the final answer, but I like supporting a company (Toyota) who is working on lowering our use of oil.
     
  15. caballoviejo

    caballoviejo Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    442
    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2004

    Not much difference. It was ASSUMED that global production was static. When prices went up new oil areas were found, new technologies produced more oil out of old fields. Reserves increased all over the globe. The north sea came in.Then oil plunged due to overproduction. In the US wells were capped and you heard the phrase "there's plenty of oil a $40 a barrell, none at $10 per barrel.

    At $50 a barrel all sorts of oil bearing stata will be developed, cheaper sulfur removeing technologies will be developed. People will shift gradually to more enegy efficient transportation, and the upward pressure on oil prices will be relieved.
     
  16. frugalville

    frugalville Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    93
    Joined:
    Mar 11, 2005
    Right on.. the other problem is how oil is priced. Right now oil is bought and sold in US Dollars. Great if your the country that prints the reserve currency. The problems occur this time if exporting countries like Russia, Brazil, Venesuala, & Middle East decide they no longer want US dollars for oil, but an alternative currency like Euros or gold, or a united asian currency. Then we are really in trouble. Our govt can print more dollars, but it can't print euros or gold or other currencies. I think that was the camel that broke the back on Iraq, they switched selling oil in dollars to euros. In turn, we sent the world a message "your either with us, or against us".

    I do not argue that big 'energy' business moves the prices. This is done to ease the consumers into acceptance. Flip on the news today..Cnbc will hit you with headlines like oil fell of a cliff today to$51.00 BBL from 55.00.. oh its cheaper, I must be getting a deal.

    Nobody in the US can fathom 1.3 billion people coming into technology. Here's what everyone seems to miss. They are building a city the size of Detroit every couple months.

    It is not the US right to have something for nothing. We have enjoyed that luxury too long. The punchbowl is empty.

    Here's the wakeup call for the US in case anyone missed it.

    > US twin deficits at all time highs (trade and current acct.)
    > Going on 8 trillion of public debt and climbing
    > Declining public education
    > Increasing population
    > Exodus of jobs to cheap overseas labor market
    > Consumers up to their eyeballs in debt
    > Adjustable mortgage rates rising
    > US companies not funding pension obligations
    > Non enforcement of regulations and accounting 'irregularities' in financial community
    > Derivatives and other exotic, untested financial instruments
    > 'service economy'
    > Social security liabilities
    > Peak energy and complete disregard for energy conservation
    > Continued pollution and loss of available fresh water in US
    > Increasing erosion of civil liberties due to 'terrorism'
    > Increased lending to sub-prime consumers
    > Idea of 'national healthcare'
    > Increasing complex US financial pyramid is becoming harder to control for Fed
    > Deteriorating roads and utility infrastructure
    > Increased violence exposure on tv and media has become acceptable to parents
    > Increased divorce rate and single parent homes. Both parents work and kids are raised by daycare industry (which has dirt low pay! so they get what they pay for)
    > Increasing state taxes and state tax debt
    > Rising property taxes
    > Healthcare, prescription drug, and medicare costs
    > stagnant / declining US wages
    > Baby boomer retirement and the stocks that will have to be sold to fund it
    > Limited natural resources are becoming increasingly costly to obtain
    > US Manufacturing base completely eroded
    > 40% of all americans are on prescription drugs
    > China is emerging with 1.2 billion who will become 1st rate consumers
    > Shift of SS burden to Privatization of SS
    > Overvalued Stock Market
    > Reluctance of US companies to provide 'benefits' for their workers.
    > Most US businesses underwater in debt/equity
    > Fed targeting 3% Yoy inflation
    > Greenspan will retire next year
    > 0% savings rate among US consumers, we have evolved into credit based society. 50% of US households have less than $50,000 in savings for retirement
    > Electronic technology based consumer consumption is peaking (buying of PC's, TV's, DVD, MP3...)
    > Continued subsidies to US business markets (agriculture, steel, airline, banks, military contractors)
    > Increased unregulated immigration
    > Larger % of employment is coming from the federal govt.
    > Loss of self-sufficiency and our reliance on foreign oil, food, natural gas, and cheap foreign labor
    > Increasing tensions between 2 groups of US population (2 presidential elections decided by less than 1%)
    > Increased world military buildup (China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Israel, US)
    > Foreign dollar holdings are coming home to buy US companies and US resources, not treasury debt.
    > US went from the biggest creditor to biggest debtor, and requires 1.8 billion a day from foreigners just to stay even, let alone reduce debt.
    > If goods don't change borders, then armies do.

    But the problem this time is there are more players in the wings ready with fists full of dollars from the trade defecit. The US doesn't make anything they want. The only thing that goes back in those overseas containers to China is scrap metal, paper, and any other recyclable resource they can get their hands on. A good deal of them go back empty.

    They will buy oil with both fists, and we will pay thru the nose.
     
  17. tooltime

    tooltime Border Ruffian

    Messages:
    444
    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2003
    Location:
    MN
    The trade deficit that gets reported on all the time is the difference between the dollar value of our exports and the dollar value of our imports (measured over a month, quarter or year.) The trade deficit is the current account deficit.

    The other component of the twin deficits is the federal government budget deficit.
     
  18. mightybooboo

    mightybooboo Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    11,301
    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2004
    Location:
    So Cal Mtns
    Absolutely Caballo.Still plenty of proven reserves.I read a thing about known middle east reseves,developed fields.Place is still floating in oil,and will be for a long long time to come.Not scared by propaganda from the gov sources.Not scared by experts who say the oil is gone.How do they know oil is gone,they have some magic radar that has explored the world,and can prove the oil no longer exists?Pucky!

    When the price reaches what they want,which will be when alternatives are priced the same and readily available,watch the oil spigot open up to undercut the competition.Has always been that way,and will always be that way.

    The sky isnt falling,but we will be raped for every penny they can possibly squeeze from us.

    IMHO

    BooBoo
     
  19. Swampthing

    Swampthing Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    101
    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2005
    Opec countries get to sell their oil based on reserves. They are continuously revising their reserves upward in an attempt to be able to sell more oil. This is without independent verification. Nomajor oil discoveries since 92? No new refineries since ?

    If we can't trust the Saudis to curtail radical Islam, control the mullahs who spew anti-american garbage, prevent 18 of the 9/11 hyjackers from Saudi Arabia from ever committing 9/11.

    If we can't trust them to do these things how can we trust them about their oil reserves?
     
  20. Alex

    Alex Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    833
    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2003
    Location:
    Vancouver, and Moberly Lake, BC, Canada
    Well, there we go, a couple of posters just told us all about it. I was wondering about all that geological data, facts and figures -- did seem like someone was cooking up a lot. And then there is the fact that so many of them are saying the same general thing -- it sure is good to know it's all made up and now we know the truth. Saying there is no problem is counterproductive, and not good for the world -- we need to figure this out -- even if there is some oil left.

    And, still do we know anything?

    Well, let's see what we do know: there are more people in the world every day, OK; there are a bunch of people who want what good old USA has, OK; now comes the tricky part . . . hmmm, are we running out of oil or not?

    Well, we can wait and see -- then we will know for sure -- since we can't believe the science. You know, if it's all a guess anyway, I'd rather go with the scientist than, the feeling-of-certainty-that-there-is-a-lot-of-oil-left-and-they-are-lying-to-us-or-don't-know-what-they-are-saying theory.

    The National Geographic had a story, a few months ago about oil-reserve predictions, that was easy to follow and seemed scientific. I think we better count on having higher oil prices for awhile – like the rest of our lives. You know, if we have enough money, then we will be able to buy all the oil we want. Just get a lot more money: then no worries.

    I don't think we should think the sky is falling. I think we should figure out how to ramp-up new technologies right away and not ingore the problem -- we CAN fix the problem -- ONLY once we STOP ignoring it.

    From antoher post of mine,
    All the best to us all,

    Alex