"Oil is far too cheap at the moment"

Discussion in 'Homesteading Questions' started by Bruce in NE, Jun 8, 2004.

  1. Bruce in NE

    Bruce in NE Well-Known Member

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    $182/barrel oil on the horizon?


    From BBC News . . .


    Is the world's oil running out fast?
    By Adam Porter
    at the Peak Oil conference in Berlin

    Oil installation
    How long will the oil keep flowing?

    If you think oil prices are high at $40 a barrel then wait till they are four times that much.

    How will you pay to run your car? How will you get the children to school? How will you heat your house? How much will transported food go up in price?

    How will we pay for plastics, metals, rubber, cheap flights, Simpson's DVDs, 3G phones and everlasting economic growth?

    The basic answer is, we won't.

    This is the message from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO).

    The group of oil executives, geologists, investment bankers, academics and others has been warning the world of high oil prices, and the ensuing fallout, for some years now.

    The end of cheap oil

    It includes a diverse range of oil industry insiders.

    People like Ali Bakhtiari, head of strategic planning at Iran's National Oil Company (NOIC), Dr Colin Campbell, a former executive vice president of Total-Fina, and Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker and adviser to the controversial Bush-Cheney energy plan.

    They are united by one idea, that global oil production is about to peak, which in turn will signal the permanent end of cheap oil.

    And they warn that this is the foundation of the current rise in oil prices.

    Who hurts when prices explode?

    "Oil is far too cheap at the moment," says Mr Simmons.

    "The figure I'd use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking."

    Oil pipeline and derrick
    Large new oil fields are ever more difficult to find
    "If we price oil correctly," Mr Simmons says, "it could give us time to find bridge fuels, fuels to fill the gap between an oil economy and a renewable economy. But I don't see that happening."

    The adherents of the peak oil theory warn the decline of world oil output will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock on effects could be catastrophic.

    "In my opinion, unfortunately, there will be no linear change," says Iran's Ali Bakhtiari. "There will only be sudden explosive change."

    "The people who will be least affected will be the super poor, who already have no access to energy, and the super rich who do not care if oil is $100 a barrel."

    "It is everyone who is in the middle who will be hurt the most," says Mr Bakhtiari. "When the crisis comes there will be enormous changes."

    Oil rationing?

    Dr Colin Campbell
    Dr Campbell says endless growth is not possible

    Much of ASPO's predictions stem from the calculations of Dr Campbell.

    His work on oil reserves has long suggested that many official oil data are either flawed estimates or at worst downright lies.

    Scandals like the 23% of 'lost' reserves at Royal Dutch Shell have helped to boost interest in his work.

    False reserves threaten the security of energy supply, just as do bombs under pipelines.

    Dr Campbell's conclusion: oil production and consumption should be regulated by governments.

    "Many reserve figures are highly questionable," says Dr Campbell.

    "Many great oil fields are increasingly old and inefficient. But I don't think oil is easy to produce with a sniper behind every palm tree."

    "The way to increase energy security is to reduce demand," he says.

    'Difficult times'

    At ASPO's recent conference in Berlin, companies such as BP and Exxon and men such as Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, began to talk to the proponents of the peak oil theory.

    Whilst they may not agree with Dr Campbell's theories, their attendance highlighted ASPO's emerging importance in the oil debate.

    In public, Mr Birol denied that supply would not be able to meet rising demand, especially from the buoyant economies in the USA, China and India.

    But after his speech he seemed to change his tune.

    "For the time being there is no spare capacity. But we expect demand to increase by the fourth quarter (of the year) by three million barrels a day."

    He pinned his hopes for an increase in production squarely on troubled Saudi Arabia.

    "If Saudi does not increase supply by 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year we will face, how can I say this, it will be very difficult. We will have difficult times. They must invest."

    Can Saudi deliver?

    But even Mr Birol admitted that Saudi production was "about flat".

    Three million extra barrels a day would mean a huge 30% leap in output in just a few months.

    North Sea oil rig
    North Sea oil production is in decline

    When BBC News Online followed up by asking if this giant increase in production was actually possible rather than simply a desire he refused to answer. "You are from the press? This is not for you. This is not for the press."

    Asking other delegates - admittedly supporters of the peak oil theory - whether such a steep increase was feasible, the answers were unambiguous: "absolutely out of the question," "completely impossible," and "3 million barrels - never, not even 300,000."

    One delegate laughed so hard he had to support himself on a table.

    Some recent figures tend to back up ASPO's outlook.

    North Sea production is declining at an increasing rate, having peaked in 1999.

    Not at the predicted flat rate of decline of 7%, but gradually accelerating from 7% to 8.5% to 11%.

    And the number of major new oil fields discovered around the world fell to zero for the first time in 2003, despite an obvious increase in technological expertise.

    "We need transparency with the figures," says Dr Campbell.

    "This avoids profiteering from shortages, the collapse of poor countries and it will stimulate alternatives."

    "Consumer countries need to be able to audit fields, but at the same time 'flat earth' economists who believe in endless growth need to change their ideas."

    And Dr Campbell has a dire warning: "If the real figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets, in the end that would suit no one."
     

  2. That story is just another "sky is falling" rant from enviromentalists and doomsdayers. There is more oil then all that has been pumped ( and left in the middle east) under the ocean floor. Not to mention that the former soviet east asian states and Russia itself possess massive untapped oil reserves. Oil in the amounts those Arabs can only dream of.
    That is science fact, the rest is science fiction. Doomsdayers are taking advantage of tough times with oil to spread their poison.
    More science fact, oil is cheaper today ADJUSTING for inflation then during the oil embargo. Also it is not OPEC's fault for rising prices, IT IS TAXES!! That and outrageous profits by American refiners/distributers.
    The Govt. raises taxes, companies raise prices and then just wave the anti-arab magic-wond, suddenly Americans blame OPEC and not the real culprit.
     
  3. fordy

    fordy Well-Known Member

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    ...................I appreciate your info Bruce but you've Been listening Too some Bible Thumper who thinks that if he Farts god is telling him NOT to eat Beans. We are going to eventually run out of Earl. The best outcome that WILL result from these current High oil prices is that Both government and the Auto makers are going to have to pursue the technology of Hydrogen fuel and other promising concepts to Improve the average fuel consumption for most vehicles. thanks for your effort........fordy... :eek: :)
     
  4. Iraq pays .05 cents a gallon.

    It's only expensive for those trying to liberate the towelheads.
     
  5. heelpin

    heelpin Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't take a genus to see that we are in trouble and the fallout is not far away. I live in an oil production area and I see the dwindling production and gearing down everyday. Are you paying more at the pump now than a few years ago? Do you think this is a short-term problem and will somehow disappear because the Planet is awash in oil? Lucky me, I own some production and I love the checks, they keep getting bigger and bigger but I know there is an end to it sooner than later. I remember reading in some of the tabloids back in the early 70's the prediction of 1.00 gasoline, I like to fell out of my chair laughing, what idiots, I was buying gas for .25 (cents) a gallon at the time. Have people forgotten the lines at the gas stations already and think it could never happen again? The "There is plenty of oil" theory sounds a lot like the 200 mpg carburetor stories.
    Here is some good info, these are not tree hugging flower children talking, these are respected people in the industry.
    http://www.eco-action.org/dt/oilfut.html
     
  6. boxwoods

    boxwoods Well-Known Member

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    I would guess we are in trouble: Chevy and ford are moving into China, and if they produce the same 13-17 mpg vehicles there as they do here. China is gonna need lots more oil. :haha:
     
  7. Bruce in NE

    Bruce in NE Well-Known Member

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    "great uplifting story. Get a life.
    Mike"

    Unregistered Mike,

    Sorry if caused you the least bit of discomfort with my post.

    In the future, I'll try to get a life by posting less trivial topics you might approve of, such as The Plight of Orphaned Bunnies or The High Cost of Kitty Litter.

    Or would those also be a bit too much for you?
     
  8. OUVickie

    OUVickie Well-Known Member Supporter

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    If this is a printed Media story and scientists are talking about it, then why are some of you attacking Bruce for posting it? :confused:

    It's not like he's making it up and he has the right to post like everyone else. And not everyone that is concerned about world problems is an extreme left-wing liberal either. :rolleyes:
     
  9. Jimmy Mack

    Jimmy Mack Well-Known Member

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    nothing personal Bruce, but the post is such CHICKEN LITTLE LIBERAL DRIVEL, IMO

    in fact, IMO, we can't run out of oil soon enough so we can move on to less polluting forms of energy

    good day to all! Jimmy
     
  10. kabri

    kabri Almst livin the good life

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    Ok, for a little balance to the "sky is falling" what about the perpetual oil theory? http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645

    Even if this has a scrap of truth, DH and I are still planning to build an energy efficient house and live off the grid, complete with root celler, 4 season garden and our livestock. Even if oil does not run out in our lifetime, we will still have to pay for it!
     
  11. OUVickie

    OUVickie Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I agree with you kabri. I don't care if there's enough to drown the world in the icky black stuff - I'd rather not hand my money over to the oil companies. We're working towards the same kind of goals - total self-reliance. It might be a pipe dream to some, but it's a wonderful dream to me! :p
     
  12. jacksun

    jacksun Active Member

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    bruce it depends on what type of crude oil you are talking about lite sweet crude or heavy crude or shale there is alot of oil here in the us but the oil companies can make more money from the oil in the middle east because its easier to refine the good quality oil is getting harder to find new deposits but there is plenty of oil out there.its just profit taking thats making it expensive.
    and as for hydrogen there is very little of that naturally stored in the earth its a gas, to make it we need electricity so it takes energy to make hydrogen you can think of it as a battery but hydrogen atoms are very small and will leak out of about any material except stainless steel so its very hard to store very much. and truthfully do you want to use the worlds fresh water sources for energy? i think not unless you want to pay $10 a gal for fresh water. the best way is to conserve what we got. p.s. i drive an 80,000 pound truck and get 6.5 mpg for you car that wieghs 4000 pounds you would have toget 130mpg so dont you think they have some room for new engines for cars the gas engine hasnt changed in close to 100years except for electronics.p.s. dont discount those 200mpg cars yet
     
  13. I see we have a lot of experts in the geologic survey of minerals on this board, who apparently know more than folks at the peak oil conference who have worked in the field their whole lives. And their arguments are so convincing, noteworthy, and well researched.
     
  14. RAC

    RAC Guest

    People would get better gas mileage if today's cars didn't have electric this and that, safety equipment other than seatbelts were optional, and if you wanted to you could drive without a windshield and roof and doors (maybe just a roll bar).

    Why can you drive a motorcycle and be exposed to the elements, but you can't do the same in a car?
     
  15. Murdock

    Murdock Member

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    Some of you should do yourselves a favor and actually read up on Peak Oil. It doesnt have so much to do with running out of oil, as it has to do with running out of cheap oil.

    There is a point at which oil becomes to expensive to drill, and refine, and this is what Peak Oil represents. Up until now, oil companies drill an area until it gets too expensive to do so, and then they move on to another site. What science is suggesting is that we have just about exhausted all of our cheap sources of oil, and that prices are going to continue to rise to the point that it will be too expensive to continue using oil as an energy source.
     
  16. OUVickie

    OUVickie Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I did read up on that and it was very interesting.
    Here in OK, oil has been a way of life for a long time, but then came the crash in the 80s. There were abandoned fields everywhere, and some places became Superfund sites - pretty sad. OERB has sponsored cleanup, but I think that comes from federal money and probably has to do with lawsuits being filed. I understand that we can't redo our entire structure overnite, but like others, I feel that we could make progress in other areas of alternative fuel - it just takes the want to. Why be dependent solely on oil and especially on OPEC, if we don't have to?
    We didn't always use oil base products, at one time Black Gold was unheard of. It's the profit that drives the machine, not just the need. My hope is that lawmakers will keep an open mind and realize we CAN make money on other energy sources and you CAN stimulate the economy, if you inspire people to try something new.
    During WWII there was a demand for rubber, plane building, etc. and what happened? People pulled together and met the need - they SACRIFICED - maybe that's the problem now, no one is willing to sacrifice their own personal gratification for the better idea that would serve us all. :confused:
     
  17. Amy Jo

    Amy Jo Well-Known Member

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    Because "they" WANT the motorcyclist to die. See he/she pays less for insurance, spends less on gas per mile, spends less on tires per year, less for state inspections, less for vehicle registration, less taxes upon purchase, less for repairs, only 2 spark plugs (in our case), etc. Not a very good spender, huh?

    Yes, sounds outrageous... but think about it. In the same exact week in Pennsylvania, they made STRICTER laws about wearing your seatbelt in an automobile... a vehicle with doors, a roof, steel framework, and airbags to protect the occupants, and they made it legal to ride a motorcycle with no helmet, where your brain is only protected from other vehicles and the road by the thin protection of your skull. So, while they said, "Hey, go ahead and kill yourself" to the motorcyclists, they said, "Hey, if you hit a motorcyclist with your car, you're gonna need that seatbelt! Be careful, buddy." :haha:

    It's all a big conspiracy brought to you by relatives of the people who did in Peter Fonda in Easy Rider! ;) We need a "tongue in cheek" smiley...

    If oil goes to $182 a barrel, some stupid people may still buy it. I'll build a fire to keep warm by and cook over, grow a garden, raise some chickens, and ride a horse to the store. Gee, I'll probably be doing most of that by next year anyways...

    Amy

    "Do not meddle in the affairs of cats. For, they are subtle and will mess with your computer."
    -- Bruce Graham
     
  18. heelpin

    heelpin Well-Known Member

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    This was the first car to drive cross-country, story at www.pbs.org




    The following is an excerpt from "Suggestions for the Care and Operation of the Winton Two-Cylinder Cars," published in 1903 by the Winton Motor Carriage Company.


    After mastering the details of starting motor, the operation of sparking device, carburetor admission valves, etc., it is next in order to learn the operation of the transmission gear and the driving of Car.

    When motor has been started, occupy seat behind steering wheel. The right foot is then convenient to the foot or "governor," button, and the left foot is free to operate the brake. Put an easy pressure upon the governor-button and the motor speed will increase. Take hold of the short inside lever and draw it gradually into place until it notches. This engages the low speed gear, and the effect is to propel the Car forward. To stop Car, first remove foot from button and then release the short lever to its CENTRAL position and apply the brake. To stop motor, turn electric switch button to register "OFF."

    This same short lever, when shoved forward from its CENTRAL position, engages the reverse gear. To run Car backward, engage this reverse gear.

    After having become thoroughly familiar with the short lever -- forward and backward control -- learn the manipulation of the long outside lever. Start Car ahead by using the short lever, then, after releasing the short lever to its CENTRAL position, gradually draw in the long lever, which will engage the high-speed gear clutches. When high-speed gear is engaged it is possible to obtain any variation of the Car speed, from maximum to minimum, by the manipulation of the governor-button.

    By the intelligent operation of this governor-button it will quickly be observed the the Car can be made to spurt ahead or slow down, as the will of the operator may elect. Consequently there is no necessity for juggling the levers in controlling the speed of Car. In taking corners, for instance, do not diminish Car speed by throwing out the clutches, but do it all with the governor-button control.

    To regulate Car speed by governor-button, rather than by clutch operation, insures economy of fuel and power, and does not permit motor to race.

    To stop Car, disengage the high-speed gear clutch by shoving long lever forward and apply brake, as hereinbefore explained.

    When hill climbing with the high-speed gear in clutch and the grade is so stiff that it becomes necessary to engage the hill-climbing gear, first release the high-speed gear and, after applying sufficient pressure upon the governor-button to speed motor, draw in the short lever.

    Never attempt to engage to clutches at the same time. Be careful always to release one before another is applied. Maintain a cool head at all times, and master the interesting details of operation before venturing near brick walls and telegraph poles.

    Upon stopping motor do not neglect to immediately turn off the gasoline and lubricating oil at the main admission valves over supply tanks. It will then be necessary to touch the gasoline valves at carburetors.
     
  19. horselogger

    horselogger Well-Known Member

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    get a horse!!!!!Just helped as neighbor,in his late seventies move. did everything by horse until a couple of years ago.....funny how a hundred years ago everything was done by horse,everyone ate better...Ive lived most of my adult lfe ,35 miles from town,without a vehicle....it can be done without a great deal of deprevation. The problem is that as Americans we seem to think that it is a god given right to have a car and cheap gas...maybe its time to pay the piper his due.....