No oil by 2050?

Discussion in 'Homesteading Questions' started by Ravenlost, Apr 8, 2005.

  1. Ravenlost

    Ravenlost Well-Known Member Supporter

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  2. Jan Doling

    Jan Doling Well-Known Member

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    There'll be no me by that year either!
     

  3. Ravenlost

    Ravenlost Well-Known Member Supporter

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    If there's still a me, it'll be a 91-year-old me! LOL...
     
  4. Hip_Shot_Hanna

    Hip_Shot_Hanna Well-Known Member

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    While there may be no me, I reckon that there will be my grandkids. And their kids. I'd like to think that we could solve the difficulties well enough that their future wouldn't be impoverished.
     
  5. posifour11

    posifour11 Well-Known Member

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    the market will make its own solution. until then, people can't be force to buy something they don't want.

    for instance, i am very interested in the hybrid technology, but i'm going to wait until these cars show some reliability before i go that direction.
     
  6. Beststash

    Beststash Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully sooner than that....I hope I live to see an alternate energy source other than oil. Nasty stuff that has caused a lot of bad things in the last 30 years.
     
  7. Freeholder

    Freeholder Well-Known Member

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    I don't know if the market will be *able* to make it's own solution. The thing is, we aren't going to run out of oil for a long time. However, as the price continues to go up (and yes, I know it's been going down the last few days, but the long-term trend is UP), the cost of doing everything else is also going to go up. This will not only make it more and more expensive to develop alternatives to cheap oil for energy, it is also going to make the economy suffer. As the economy gets worse, people will lose their jobs, and their homes, if they have mortgages, and then how are they going to afford the energy alternatives even if they *do* get invented??

    Kathleen
     
  8. Bruce in NE

    Bruce in NE Well-Known Member

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    Kathleen,

    You hit it right. It's the end of cheap oil that will do us in, we'll never run completely out of oil. I believe the author was referring to the US USING no oil by 2050 because of other energy sources that supposedly will be developed, but I haven't read his book. I think long before 2050 we'lll be in terrible shape anyway.

    It's funny how some people react by saying; oh well, I'll be dead then anyway so who cares. We've squandered the oil, the hell with future generations.
     
  9. randomguy

    randomguy Member

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    A viable energy alternative already exists! While Ethanol is being use as a blend with gasoline to make gasohol (10% Ethanol to 90% gasoline) and hybrid cars are entering the market they are only being used to water down the oil; stretch it out a little longer. If we were joking we could call it a conservation effort. China will cause a rude awakening for us. Their economy is growing over 30% a year and they will demand oil on a level that we do within a decade or so. 2050? Are you joking, oil will run out or be to costly to use for motor vehicles long before then. I give it 10 more year max, then people will have to have done something. The real solution is biodiesel. It works in all diesel vehicles that currently run #2 diesel with no conversion. It splash blends with regular diesel in any proportion. It’s a hell of a lot better for the air. Most importantly it is made from farm products and Americans are the best farmers in the world. We are the breadbasket of the world and we can easily grow our own energy supply. Now the only problem is enough of you citizens to demand it in your local neighborhood so producers can turn a profit by supplying you. Biodiesel is now! It already works in the engines Rudolf Diesel designed for the average farmer over 100 years ago. We have the technology, we are producing and using the stuff in small quantities now. Now all we need is a consumer demand from you people in this very forum and those that you know. Demand Biodiesel, it is America’s mobile energy future.
     
  10. Freeholder

    Freeholder Well-Known Member

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    How much biodiesel does it take to grow the crops to make biodiesel? How much biodiesel does it take to manufacture the heavy equipment large farms use to grow the crops to make biodiesel? How much biodiesel does it take to transport the crops (all crops, food and biodiesel) to processing plants, warehouses, and stores? And so on. I think you can see where I'm going with this. I suspect biodiesel will help, a little bit, but I doubt very much that it is going to completely replace cheap fossil fuels.

    Kathleen
     
  11. randomguy

    randomguy Member

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    You forget fossil fuels are no longer as cheap as they once were, and each day it seems to get worse. Where I live #2 diesel is up to $2.61 a gallon today. By this summer it will most likely break $3.00. It has been mentioned that oil may see a supper spike up to $108 a barrel, which will bring Gasoline up to roughly $5.00 a gallon. I would not be surprised to see this happen. I don’t know about you but I can’t afford that. After $3.00 a gallon I will seriously be considering making my own biodiesel. I know how to and have done it before, and with the trend of oil price it looks like I will have to do it again (this time on a more permanent basis).
     
  12. boxwoods

    boxwoods Well-Known Member

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    Well, we could all move down south where it stays warm most of the year. :) and stop driving and just farm. ahhhhhhhhh. Do it by hand like the old days.
     
  13. Freeholder

    Freeholder Well-Known Member

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    Give it a few more years, and we'll be looking back on current prices as 'the good old days' of cheap oil! As far as affording $3.00 a gallon, no, I can't. We are already cutting way back on our driving, and will have to cut back even more as prices go up (I only work one day a week away from home, so that helps). I'll shortly have to go off the internet -- am trying to accumulate as much information as possible while I still have it. And when gas becomes not only expensive, but unavailable to us ordinary mortals, I will have to ride my bike. It's twelve miles to town, so I'm not looking forward to that (I'm pushing fifty, and not in as good shape as I was thirty years ago), but if that's what has to be, then it has to be.

    The future is going to be a hard place to live, no matter how prepared we think we are, and it looks very much like the future is a lot closer than any of us really expected.

    Kathleen
     
  14. Cindy in PA

    Cindy in PA Well-Known Member

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    Biodiesel around here is made from waste cooking oil and other wastes, so growing new things is not the way to look at it, you use waste. Same with the new look at ethanol, they are using cellulose from the actual plant matter that is not used as opposed to corn itself etc., so it is not as costly as growing the whole crop just for the ethanol. What we pay for gas and oil is not the "cost" just what we pay. If you price the actual cost to the environment, the cost to produce and the fact that we have used an enormous amount over the last 100+ years, it would be too costly to waste as we do. As for using your own biodiesel for free, around here you can use it for tractors, but put it in your vehicle and you will pay taxes to the government. Maybe one of these days we will look beyond our lifetime and realize we are squandering future shares of our resources in our own greediness.
     
  15. Darren

    Darren Still an :censored:

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    The sky is falling! The sky is falling :waa:

    A few facts to stave off panic:

    The Saudis recently announced they have almost double the amount of their previous reserves.

    An already proven process that currently converts waste from processing turkys into oil is being scaled up.

    A new process has been tested and proven to convert oil shale into oil at relatively low cost.

    We have more oil locked up in oil shales in the West than the Saudis have, or maybe did given their recent announcement, in reserves.

    Large farms are using a technology that is scaled up from the 1930's. Other farms have proven you can farm without huge fertilizer inputs and with much less use of fuel using the same crop rotation for decades. Unfortunately that requires more knowledge and management skills than most farmers have.

    Canadian exploitation of oil shales is booming.

    If you go back in history we've always had predictions of catastrophy caused by high oil prices. Even in the early days of the automobile before gasoline was selected as the standard fuel, there was a raging controversy on the availability of oil.

    For those of you still convinced the sky is falling, :haha: go back and read the Club of Rome's prediction of population growth and inability to grow enough food causing a worldwide disaster. Worldwide many countries are facing drops in population because the birthrate has fallen below the replacement rate. That means a drop in demand for a bunch of things including .... oil.
     
  16. FrankTheTank

    FrankTheTank Well-Known Member

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    "the market will make its own solution"... This may be so, but the alternatives right now do not look good.

    Darren~you must keep in mind...the problem isn't lack of oil, the problem is lack of CHEAP oil (which is what we've been awash in for a long time). What is the EROEI on those oil shales out west? In Canada there using large amount of natural gas (the stuff most of us up here use to HEAT our homes and cook are food) for producing oil from oilsands(YOu have to heat that sand up to get the oil out, i'm sure its a similiar process with oil shale).

    I wouldn't believe anything a Saudi oil minister says. Haven't they been coming out about every other day saying there going to boost output by about 500K barrels? The numbers don't jive.

    I think the point should be made that oil probably won't run out for a long long time, and the reason being? It'll become too expensive! You think its pricey now (54/barrel), just think about what'll happen in the next few years when Ghawar in SA starts pumping less (it might be already--its the largest oil field on earth). The world is using over 80million barrels a day and is expected to increase even more now that China/India are coming into the consumption game. US alone uses over 20mil a day.

    I think slowly but surely oil will continue to rise, pricing many people out of the market, causing a slow reduction in use (i doubt the world can produce more than 80ish million barrels a day for that long of a time). More working out of homes, less traveling, more walking, less eating, more biking, etc etc.

    Rollingstone magazine had a good article (i'm a little more positive on our outlook!)
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/_/id/7203633?pageid=rs.Politics&pageregion=single1


    I actually worry more about the debt of this country. Totals standing at around 40 Trillion.
    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/hodges/2005/0313.html
     
  17. ipaint

    ipaint Member

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    "An already proven process that currently converts waste from processing turkys into oil is being scaled up."

    This process not only converts turkey waste but any material that is not radioactive.
    Here's their website:

    http://www.changingworldtech.com./index.asp

    and an article from Discover magazine:

    http://forums.biodieselnow.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=829

    They built a small test plant which tested all materials with success. The first commercial plant is operational now in Carthage, MO. The product is being long term tested in engines to see if there are any adverse effects. A larger plant is in pre-engineering stage for somewhere in Colorado.

    ConAgra is spending a lot of money to develop this.


    Unfortunately they have recently been cut out of the tax breaks given to companies developing alternative fuels even though their process meets the criteria for biodeisel. This has slowed their plans for additional plants in the US and they are now also turning to europe and are going to be building one for waste processing in Italy.

    Hopefully as the price of oil rises ( I agree with the premise of peak oil) the american consumers will start putting pressure on the government to develop these new technologies even if they will cut into the oil profits of those running the government.


    "A new process has been tested and proven to convert oil shale into oil at relatively low cost."

    Do you have any links or info this?
     
  18. Mastiff

    Mastiff Well-Known Member

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    The reality is that burning fossil fuels is both expensive and bad for the environment.
    If we had to pay the real cost of keeping the oil flowing from the Middle East at the pump the cost would be staggering. These would include military aid, military actions, health problems, pollution, etc... that we now pay in taxes to help subsidize the oil companies. These are the same folks who are making record profits while the gouge consumers.
    We can grow our own clean burning fuels at a cheaper all around price and put American farmers to work at the same time.
    The real problem is we have the foxes guarding the hen house. The oil folks are deeply embedded in Washington and they are not going to let go until they have milked every drop of possible profit out of the American consumers.
     
  19. ipaint

    ipaint Member

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    which is why, even though the innovation and technology is there to switch from fossil fuel to clean energy, I believe we are in for a very rough ride for the next 10 to 20 years whether you choose to believe the oil is half gone or not. For me the last nail in the coffin was the bankruptcy bill. Once the in debt but relatively comfortable middle class start feeling the pain of losing their ability to consume not to mention their homes and "stock portfolios" then maybe we will see the pressure needed to do something about our government and our dependency on oil.
     
  20. Darren

    Darren Still an :censored:

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    Frank oil is cheap. The current price of gasoline has not kept up with inflation. If you want expensive, convert the price of a container of water, Dasani, sold by Coca Cola to a price per gal. People still buy water at convenience stores at exorbitant prices in spite of the fact the water also contains potential carcinogens in the water. The plastic taste in any beverage is the plasticizer that leached out of the plastic.

    In the early seventies when OPEC squeezed the oil supply we had the same predictions of doom. The recent super spike scenario was published by an investment company. That alone should make you suspicious. Everyone points to demand as being responsible for the current price of oil but that is bogus. Oil pricing is in the hands of the oil traders. Anything that drives the price up benefits the traders. During the hubub over Iraq, despite the Saudis ability to quickly pump more oil than demand required, prices still went up. OPEC lost control of the pricing. :eek:

    Immediately after the 70's crunch enough people bought mileage efficient compact automobiles that the demand for gasoline dropped for two consecutive years. Oil prices crashed shortly afterwards. :waa:

    Hybrids have the same potential. Some folks have already modified hybrids to allow them to be recharged at home. In other countries the cars come with that capability straight from the factory. One of the modified cars gets in excess of 100mpg because the owner has the option of using it as more of an electric car. In other words if gasoline prices go up enough owners of enough hybrids could elect to charge the cars at home and minimize their gasoline consumption. :D

    Currently a lot of the demand for gasoline is fixed or inelastic as economists would say. With enough hybrids on the road we could see a scenario in which a spike in gasoline prices would see an immediate drop in gasoline demand because people wouldn't buy as much. Since gasoline can't be stored for a long period of time, (the supply chain requires a constant supply of fresh gasoline) prices would have to drop to move the product. Inventories would build at refineries also driving prices down. Essentailly a hybrid owner would have the ability to deferr or time displace gasoline demand such that oil companies could no longer predict demand as in the past. :confused:

    Hybrids have the capability of destroying some of the traditional reasons for price increases. While you make think that's impossible, that's what happened in the years immediately after the early 70's crunch until demand recovered and exceeded precrunch levels.