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New car algorithm

3.1K views 36 replies 24 participants last post by  Home Harvest  
#1 ·
Is there a formula for figuring out at what point it is better to keep a car you bought new and when it is good to trade it in? I have a friend who has a 2 year old VW Jetta (TDI). He's talking about trading it in for a newer model. Says the warranty is done. I've always thought that if you were foolish/oblivious/rich/profligate enough to buy a new car off the lot, that the only way to make it pay is to keep it a LONG time. But then there are factors such as resale value and warranty and stuff like that. All very much beyond me and my 89 toyota van and 83 isuzu p'up.

Is there some algorithm which mathematically kicks out the most advantageous time to sell/trade in or keep a vehicle bought new?
 
#2 ·
you keep them for a long time, just make sure you take good care of it over the years. Cars do nothing but go down in value so when they about 10 years old the value holds the same for years. I never buy new I buy cars from someone like this guy getting rid a nice car that has taken the hardest hit in price.
 
#3 ·
If you only wanted to "wear the new off", I'd think leasing car would be way to go. Unfortunately cars are getting more and more high tech and thus unaffordable to repair once out of warranty. Its getting to point where unless its a maintenance item like tires/brakes/battery/plugs, then you junk the car when it needs anything beyond that. Price to rebuild a modern engine or transmission is just incredible.

The old joke about the millionaire that trades in car when ashtray is full has filtered down to working class and isnt that funny anymore.
 
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#4 ·
My opinion and mine only. I buy new, pay it off and run it till the tires fall off. That way I know I dont' get another persons problems. Most of the obvious bugs get worked out under warranty. Then after that what formula to do you need?

My wife wanted to trade our van in, cause we have problems with it from time to time (bought it used). I tell her I'd rather spend 1-2 grand a year in repairs then $500 a month for a payment. She's finally getting the picture.

We are fortunate, I have a 97 grand am that book value is about $10. We have kept that as a spare car, I use it for work alot as the milage is better than the truck, we always have our own loaner when work needs to be done. I put about 1000 in repairs on the grand am too but it still pays for itself.

I think the other thing people dont realize is that even with all the doohickeys you can get on a vehicle, they last a lot longer than before too. Used to be the engine fell out at 100,000 miles. Now you dont even change the coolant until then.

There is too much garbage installed in cars today too.
 
#5 ·
Is there some algorithm which mathematically kicks out the most advantageous time to sell/trade in or keep a vehicle bought new?
No. Because it varies with the person.

One person I know has absolutely no mechanical repair abilities, or interest. All she wants is the car to work when she turns the key. She very much counts on her car for her job. No car, no income. For her, a new car every few years makes sense.

Another person I know is a car guy, very mechanical, and quite old. He can't do big jobs any longer. And he's just not that interested in it anymore either. He gets newish cars, and can put up with a lot of the foibles as they age. He can and does keep up on the oil, etc.

Yet another fella is a die hard car nut, and delights in playing with his tools. Quirky is wonderful. None of his cars ever run quite right, they all leak, and he has AAA so he can be towed home, which happens fairly regularly.

All three are completely different, and all three are quite right, for the individuals.
 
#6 ·
Is there some algorithm which mathematically kicks out the most advantageous time to sell/trade in or keep a vehicle bought new?

Snoozy, if the vehicle is used in a business, an accountant can look at your situation taking depreciation and other factors into the mix, then suggest a point at which it will be less painful to transition to a new vehicle.
 
#7 ·
We have always bought new for our main vehicle and run them 10-12 years. I have found that to work well for us in the past. Sweetie usually drove it and I didn't have to worry about her. Only bought 2 used vehicles, first one, a '52 Chevy pickup, still have that one. And a '66 GTO, kept it 4 years. My present vehicle is a 2006, 30,000 miles. Don't know what will happen here with it. Will it last the rest of my life? Doubt it but I don't want to buy another new one either but....at my age and health I think it might be best, or a good low milage newer trade in? Don't know, will depend on my age, problems with this one, etc....James
 
#8 ·
I doubt we will ever buy new again unless there is some screaming zero percent interest deal on a small gas mizer and the payment would be about $150 (not likely eh?). Modern vehicles are more complex but they are vastly more reliable than their ancestors and I dont find working on them any more difficult (and in some cases its easier) than cars that had carbeurators and points. We generally buy used vehicles in good mechanical condition and we maintain them..and keep them for a decade or more; its really just that simple. Most warranties cover things that wont wear out during the period of the warranty anyway and as MDSteader said, 100,000 miles is not the end of a cars life anymore.

We have a 2000, a 2003 and a 2005 and they all run fine and are capable of cross country travel and all have 100K or over. If you want to save money, learn how to work on your own vehicle.
 
#10 ·
OUR algorithm is this: if x=burning oil or frame failure, time to trade in. If x is less than that, keep driving. ;)

We don't buy new cars in our house, though. Someone else can eat the depreciation for those first couple of years. Even if we could afford it, we wouldn't. There are few investments that are lousier than buying brand new vehicles... a few years old and it'll still be just as reliable. Shoot, even a decade old and you'll still just put routine maintenance into it, for the most part. And that's why independant mechanics exist! :)
 
#11 ·
hum I have a 1953 truck, a 1952 truck, used for projects, there over one ton,
a one ton 1978 truck (used daily) the 1978 van is runnable just do not have a use for it now besides back up, a 1991 pickup, and the car is 1991,
I resurrected 1980 one ton pickup a friend gave me, he thought was shot, (really have done very little on it, fuel pump, and starter),

I as talking to a person who said when he was in the air force (60's and 70's), they said they would replace when the cost of repairs equaled the purchase price of the unit,

but in my experience one can do a lot of repairs for the purchase price of the unit,

most ever thing on the farm has had either the engine (and if automatic) transmission rebuilt,

on most if the repairs on the unit will cost more than the value of the unit I will junk it, unless the value of the car or truck to me is worth more than the repair,

at times you need to figure in the replacement cost of the unit as well for the job it is used for,

for example (do I repair the 40 year old tractor or truck, for what may be more than it value, knowing the condition of the rest of it, or junk or trade it for a unknown unit that may end up costing me more than the repairs for the know unit,

If taken care of, my experience most cars or trucks one can get 300,000 miles out of most, tractors over 10,000 hours,

(on my last car I broke the rule on the buying price of the unit, as I bought from the junk yard for $125, and have only put 110,000 miles on it so far, we put about $600 in it when we bought it, (tires, alternator, exhaust system) and the bigest expense on it since has been the tires,
 
#13 · (Edited)
I know people who buy new vehicles just before the warranty runs out. They don't do their own mechanical work so they figure the cost of repairs as a huge liability.
Obviously people who don't understand math...

Clearly, savings would be more impressive if you can do some of your own work, but even hiring EVERYTHING done on a used car still results in a very significant savings over new...
 
#14 ·
I've had a couple repairs where the cost of the repair (hired out) would have been more than the car was worth. The plastic intake on the Crown Vic cost over $1,000 for the parts alone. Coolant and brake lines on the van would have been several thou. Sometimes I would like to be able to take the vehicle somewhere and drop it off and tell them "just fix it" and drive a loaner vehicle until mine is done. To some people that is worth the extra $$$. It's all about priorities and if somebody wants to spend their money on a new vehicle every few years that's their choice.
 
#15 ·
I've had a couple repairs where the cost of the repair (hired out) would have been more than the car was worth. The plastic intake on the Crown Vic cost over $1,000 for the parts alone. Coolant and brake lines on the van would have been several thou. Sometimes I would like to be able to take the vehicle somewhere and drop it off and tell them "just fix it" and drive a loaner vehicle until mine is done. To some people that is worth the extra $$$. It's all about priorities and if somebody wants to spend their money on a new vehicle every few years that's their choice.
Well of course it is. They can spend their money on Jimmy Choos, too, but that doesn't mean its a wise investment...
 
#16 ·
We have always bought good quality vehicles -either new or nearly new. We have paid them off as fast as possible and then maintained them. Each of our vehicles has run for 12 to 15years after they were paid off with minimal repairs necessary. Once we have paid the vehicle off we take that payment amount and divide it into two. One part for repair and maintenance on the vehicle and the other part as savings for the next new vehicle. When we go to get rid of our vehicle we generally just give it to a friend who wants a beater for their kids or a vehicle for around their farm. Our last van is now 20 years old and still on the road and in great condition. It went to Mexico and back to Alaska last winter which is more than I did!
 
#18 ·
Well to voice the other side of the equation consider the work vehicle I use. I drive between 40 and 50K miles a year and 95% of those miles are for paid mileage. I use 20 cents a mile is set aside for gas, tires, and oil changes and the balance I use as payment. I do not use the income from mileage to live on it pays for the vehicle. A certain times of the year I may be working 60-70 hours a week and be 500 miles from home so the value of hav\ng a new reliable vehicle is very important to me. If I ever change jobs I am sure I will change back to driving the vehicle into the ground but for now this works for me. My wife is retired and has a vehicle that she doesn't have to drive everyday so we keep it in good repair and will keep it for a while longer, it is 6 years old and has 60K miles on it. Just a different philosophy for us I guess.
 
#19 ·
The thing is if you shop around and do not get in a hurry and buy cars that are 2-3 years old with low mileage they will save you thousands of dollars. Ask millionaires if they buy new and most of the time they say no. Mulitmillionaires say yes for their personal vehicles. My truck is a 1999 and when purchased in 2007 it had 78k. I use my poor little half ton dodge to pull very large loads. I have now got 240k and the repairs(things I know will not last much longer) are going to be close to buying another good used one. With the Use/abuse(over worked) of this truck I hope retire it to the farm later this year. I will not sell it just make it my spare truck. 1 of 12 cars I have owned was sold as a used car. The rest were sold as parts and scrap iron. You get the most use for your money in the last few years of a car. I purchased a wrecked in rear car for $280 drove it 2 years and put tires on it. drove it another year and rebuild the clutch. I had under $700 in this car and drove it 6 years. The last year I used it on the farm more as a ATV than car even rolled it over once in the mountains. I just tend to buy nearly new cars for the family and take care of them and they last years. The car/truck just keeps getting demoted from dirve to church/trips to everyday for the family to the spare as it ages. Anyone ever use a hatch back car to haul goats to the auction every weeks, I DID. It was the little $280 car mentioned above. I put a piece of cattle pannel behind the front seats. Why make a pen to take in and out of the truck bed when I had a car that was not used for much of anything.
 
#20 ·
this is the only equation I have ever followed and ever will. If you buy a new car it will depreciate close to a third of what you paid for it the moment you drive it off the lot. He would be better off getting a third party warranty for it. Or even better, learn how to use a wrench.
 
#21 ·
The way I look at it, no matter what a vehicle is going to need attention. You can either put the money aside to take care of repairs or you can use the money to make payments. Cars are just money suckers that we need in order to go out and make more money. If you buy a used car you get a double whammie of payments and repairs. Buy an older higher mileage car for cash and you'll still have repairs and maintenance. I've never owned a vehicle that didn't need repairs for wear and tear or simple age issues. You may go 6 months without a repair then end up spending a few hundred on a simple radiator hose leak because the hoses are sold only as part of a fluid circulation unit with 5 hoses and the central connector.

The newer engineering on a lot of the new cars is expensive. Used to be you could rebuild a carb for less than $50. Now a single fuel injector can cost a couple hundred. Spark plugs are now platinum tipped and a single one costs more than a set for a car a few years older. On older cars you'll run into a lot of problems with emission systems. A part that would cost less than $20 which your can can't run without is now unavailable.
 
#22 ·
He does use it for his work, and drives A LOT OF MILES. So there is that added factor of depreciation (yet another thing I don't get:huh:). He is handy with tools, being an electrician, but he is not one to do his own auto repairs.
 
#23 ·
When is it time to get a new car? I don' know if it ever is. Our 'newest' car is an 1995 Honda Accord with 375,000+ on it and has been through three of our family.

Repairs, if you can do them yourself, will make the cost of a good running old car better than a newer one by far. Even if you have to hire out, might still be better.

I would, in my case, get rid of a car when the repairs would be more than the car is worth "to me". Just got done replacing the water pump and timing belt on the Accord, less than 200 in parts, did the labor myself and was back running before the weekend was up. Wouldn't want to price that out at a shop.

Learn to turn a wrench and read a manual, money will be saved, and a good peace of mind acquired knowing that you can do it yourself.

As for the older cars and emissions, sure if you have to pass the emission test, otherwise, you could remove the smog pumps and either take off or bypass the EGR, effectively limiting the emissions on it. Also, junk yard/pick and pay places are good, if you know what you are doing and have some time.
 
#24 ·
You can either put the money aside to take care of repairs or you can use the money to make payments.
This is almost never true.
A new vehicle is going to cost you a couple to a few hundred dollars every single month for a minimum of four years. Very few used cars are going to do that. In an expensive year, you might have a few months worth of payments. But it'll still balance out to be a LOT cheaper.
 
#25 ·
Replacement cost for my main rig would be over 1k/month, for 5 years.... on my 15 year old truck, I average one 'breakdown' a year, for less than what one monthly payment would be... for me, it's a no brainer... bonus, in a large parking lot, I imagine my rig would be one of the last ones a thief would want to hotwire...;)
 
#26 ·
I have a 1991 Chevy pickup that I bought new and am about to restore it back to it's showroom condition. The odometer stopped working many years ago at over 200,000km so I"m estimating it's over 300,000 easily. I put an engine in it at 100,000km and had the transmission rebuilt shortly after that. Not much else other than the usual, a rad and a couple of alternators, couple of starters, etc., but we did all this ourselves. My brothers are GM mechanics and most of the rest of our family is very mechanically minded so repairs are easy for us. We have found that if you can find a higher mileage older vehicle in decent shape (I had a 1991 Cutlass and now have a 1996 Grand Prix), any major component that would be prone to failure would have failed by this time and it's now good to go until it rusts out.

On the other hand, I know many people who work very demanding jobs, high tech or upper management jobs, work long hours and for whatever other reason, have no time or inclination to work on their vehicles. It makes sense for these people to buy or lease a new car with warranty and sell or trade it in when the warranty expires. A vehicle is turn-key transportation for them, nothing more.

I think there is more than just financial considerations here. What works for one person doesn't work for another.