Logic Amidst The Bird Flu Hysteria

Discussion in 'Homesteading Questions' started by KindredSpirit, May 4, 2006.

  1. KindredSpirit

    KindredSpirit Well-Known Member

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    Instead of listening to the radio/tv/government on the bird flu that will soon ravage our country leaving all of us dead, let's have a healthy debate why that scenario may NOT kill us all. IMHO I feel this particular strain of bird flu has been around since 1997. As all viruses mutate, this one in that amount of time has not mutated from human to human contact. Why, after all of these years, do I think it will now? Granted, I think the bird flu will arrive in this country and affect our flocks. I don't think it is likely that it will be human to human contact. If it were, I think the virus may have the opportunity to weaken and not be such a virulent strain. I know the movie is supposed to air on TV May 9, to further the mass hysteria. Anyone out there with some logic to spread on this thing? Where are you BobK? You seem to have a scientific background, please enlighten us!
     
  2. jnap31

    jnap31 garden guy

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    Someone in the where's Gothic thread on the countyside forum says he is gone now maybe us tin hatters ran him off?
     

  3. Firethorn

    Firethorn Well-Known Member

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    Well, if it did ravage the country, there will of course be those that survive. I guess it could be a better country after that. The economy would be better. There would be a lot left to those that did survive. :shrug: Could be a real good thing.
     
  4. Jim-mi

    Jim-mi Well-Known Member

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    ....virulent viruses vibrating and mutating......

    WOW

    How many of us can intellegintly (sp chuckle) carry on any conversation on this subject ... ?

    heresay is rampant. Untruth's abound.

    Where to get good answers ... ?
    don't know.
     
  5. KindredSpirit

    KindredSpirit Well-Known Member

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    LOL :D Try repeating those words five times in a row!
     
  6. roughingit

    roughingit knitwit

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    Meh, every couple years they trot out a new virus to scare us...SARS equine encephalitus, hanta virus. Same-old, same-old, some things never change. I wouldn't be surprised with the way things are running that they use this as an excuse to run yet more small farmers out of business, but I really don't see it as an epidemic. There is a overlay for GoogleEarth showing all the known cases and suspuected cases (in different colours), and gee whiz, if that is an epidemic it's the slowest moving one I've ever heard of.

    Can't say I don't still have a bug-out bag and a well stocked pantry though since it never hurts to be prepared!
     
  7. BobK

    BobK Well-Known Member

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    Since first discovered in 1959 the H5N1 virus has grown in its pathogenic potential, i.e., its alot more lethal now then it was when first discovered. There are several mutations which have occurred in the virus genome which make it more likely to make the jump...or at least make it easier to make the jump to different species...and this has already been observed but has not reached a point where it can jump from human to human.

    The mortality rate will likely only be on the order of 2-3% but that is still alot of people....in a population of 300 million a 3% mortality rate will be 9 million people dead....estimates for the USA are 2 million dead.....and then there are all those who will be very sick but will recover...they will still need major medical support and I doubt the system can handle these large numbers. No one has ever claimed it will wipe everyone out....just that it will kill alot more than other flu seasons with its 2-3% versus 0.1% mortality rate with 'normal' flu strains.
     
  8. jnap31

    jnap31 garden guy

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    Praise God he is alive and still with us guess they were mistaken, My prayers were not in Vain.
     
  9. jnap31

    jnap31 garden guy

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    double post.
     
  10. jnap31

    jnap31 garden guy

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    Thanks Bobk that was very well done I guess that would explain why cats are being infected. I suppose I will wait till it breaks out human to human before i tell my wife to buy a years worth of food, and then stay home. since I am not there now it is more difficult she probably has enough to get by 3 months tops as is.
     
  11. susieM

    susieM Well-Known Member

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    It's slow, for now, because it's still (mostly) only in birds.
     
  12. KindredSpirit

    KindredSpirit Well-Known Member

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    I think BobK is saying it IS a potential threat. My understanding is that he is saying is has become more pathogenic than it was when first discovered and that it has the potential to cause a lot of problems. Is this correct BobK?
     
  13. KindredSpirit

    KindredSpirit Well-Known Member

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  14. Argent Farms

    Argent Farms Pig farmer

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    While I have my doubts that this particular strain of flu is going to be "the one", there is no doubt that there will be a global flu pandemic at some point, and most likely it will come from Asia, due to farming practices there that place pigs, ducks, chickens and humans in very close proximity.

    Flu viruses are very good at sharing DNA with each other and when you get a good stew of them from various critters you can get some devastating diseases.

    My understanding is that when the influenza viruses are mutating they will trade virulence for transmissibility, and so the mutation of H5N1 that does make the jump to human to human transmissibility may be less lethal than we think.

    But I may be wrong, and that's the scary part. But I refuse to panic, even with ABC trying it's best to cause me to.
     
  15. BobK

    BobK Well-Known Member

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    Correct! The mutations that have been observed in the 'Z' strain are very close to what is needed to make the species jump..and human to human transfer possible.....it hasn't happened yet...it may not...but given the law of large numbers and virus acumulation of mutations it is likely that it will happen...not a for sure thing but closer than we have been in years to a flu strain that is this nasty.
     
  16. KindredSpirit

    KindredSpirit Well-Known Member

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    BobK, Any likelihood the virus will weaken when it mutates into the human to human transmissible state? In other words, less likely to have that death toll? If you don't mind me asking, what has your family personally done to prepare for this? Thanks.
     
  17. FUNKY PIONEER

    FUNKY PIONEER No I don't smell Funky

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    Now hanta virus is reall dangerous if you live in a the four corners area and are in the habit of playing with mice and their feces.

    Yeah its just another hyped up thing trying to panic people, but I'm with you I have prepared just like the government told me to o. I have tons of powdered milk and tuna! :cool:
     
  18. roughingit

    roughingit knitwit

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    Hehe, try doing training on any military installations in ID... Boy howdy did they read us the riot act on hanta virus! Only they neglected to mention how few cases there were and that most of them involved cabins that had been undisturbed, ect...plus they spray everything thoroughly with bleach water before we come in... Then couldn't understand why all the guys were freaking out over the cwute lil deer mice lol

    I do understand that hanta is verrrry nasty, but really, the odds are probably pretty similar to getting that one flesh-eating bacteria that was the scare before then. I'm pretty sure if you think back, you can remember *lots* of things we were "supposed" to be scared of that no one even thinks about now. I do believe preparedness is indeed an excellent thing, but I have much better things to worry about than the gov't's latest "designer" virus. Let's see floods, blizzards, ice storms, far-fetched peak oil scenarios, yep lots more to be prepared for!
     
  19. country_wife

    country_wife Evil Poptart

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    I got this article in my email today...
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12358223/wid/11915773/

    And then DH and I were discussing this whole panic that it seems the gov't is trying to create..DH's theory makes perfect sense...it's meant to stimulate the economy. I had never even thought of that, and oddly enough, I heard on the radio today that April was a great month for the retail industry..better than the past two years or something along those lines. I wonder how much of the sales were tuna and powdered milk?
     
  20. blufford

    blufford Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Madam, Let me assure you that the loss of family and friends could never be a "real good thing." :nono: