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I was wondering if this upcoming hard times we are facing the SHTF scenario many have been expecting and planning for, or is that something much, much worse?
 

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I'm not sure anyone can predict with any certainty, but IMHO the gradual decline will continue for a while before business and industry recover. Unfortunately we didn't arrive here quickly and no magic pill will cure it. I would be more confident if the fiscal irresponsibility we have seen for years (more than 8) at all levels, private and public, was being addressed. For all the talk about the worst economy in a century, its not. It was worse at the end of the Carter Administration 30 years ago, not to mention the Great Depression and 30% unemployment. Unemployment as a whole is 6.5%, so while it is hurting a lot of poeple now, it can get a lot worse for everyone. The big question for us is how will people react to it and how do we prepare in case it does get a lot worse.
 

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everyone's defn of SHTF is different, and what people prep for is different. (there's a whole subforum, "survival and emergency preparation" that discusses these topics, if you're interested.)

for me, the impending financial crisis, which i've been expecting for several years, is why i started prepping. we have a long way to go from here I think. i think the gov't response is the hardest to predict and plan for. I think the crime rate will increase, but I don't expect a "mad max" scenario, altho some others do.

i also think there's a pretty good chance there will be a major war, (ie, much bigger than the current wars, closer to WWI or WWII) sometime in the next 10-15 years. That will be the real hardship time, with real scarcity of goods. Hopefully that's still a few years away, as I'm not ready for that yet. (Or even more hopefully, maybe I'm wrong and the economic turbulence won't lead to war.)

--sgl
 

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Missin Sweet Home Alabama
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OH, I think we are in for a long one. With the outcome of the election I can only see it getting worse from here, not only with the economy, but our freedom and way of life is at risk as well,gonna be a long 4 years.
 

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I think T.S Eliot may have said it best in the final lines of his poem Hollow Men:

This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.
 

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I think this is far from over. All the billion dollar bailouts are putting a severe strain on the U.S. Treasury. It is getting to the point where the treasury notes may be in default in the next 3-6 months. If that happens, the value of our currency could drop to pennies on the dollar. That will be the SHTF time.
 

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Does anyone see what's happened so far as being bad or really effecting them beyond possibly their job loss? So far it's been nothing but headlines to most.
 

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A lot of it is media hype, but to those who have lost their jobs, it *is* SHTF.

To those of us who don't have debt and still have jobs, it's just a normal market fluctuation.
 

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I lost my job when American Axel went out on strike (was a quality manager for a supplier to the automotive companies). Didn't get called back when gas prices spiked and the automotive companies started tanking. Looks like I MIGHT have found another job after more than six months. The job pays 1/3 less than the last one but I'll be thrilled to have it if things work out (it's for a nonprofit and I'll be part of something that helps disabled adults).

If you want an explination about the current financial crisis go to www.fedupusa.org
The guy that runs it is a Jerk (capitol J) but very intellegent. Also, a really good congressional speach that explains the basics: [ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-PxA5nUjkg[/ame]

As far as the SHTF - don't know if this is it. Will depend on what the folks in Washington do. Obama is inexperienced but if he gets the right people around him he might be able to salvage things. However, it's a long shot. If they don't handle it right this very well could be the TEOTWAWKI. We have a motto at our house - Expect the best but prepare for the worst.
 

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Does anyone see what's happened so far as being bad or really effecting them beyond possibly their job loss? So far it's been nothing but headlines to most.
It's not headlines to us and others on this board. DH's plant is closing. We are being moved to Michigan - one of about 20 out of over 600 people that will still have a job from this closing. I don't know what could be much worse in this economy than losing your job. Not a whole lot of companies hiring right now in our area. And if you are hired on and the new company starts to feel the crunch - who will be the first to be let go?

To the OP - we have been planning for times like this for 30 yrs. It isn't the only thing we plan for, since invaribly planning for one emergency often covers a host of others at the same time. I think this is just the beginning of troubles.
 

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It's not headlines to us and others on this board. DH's plant is closing. We are being moved to Michigan - one of about 20 out of over 600 people that will still have a job from this closing. I don't know what could be much worse in this economy than losing your job. Not a whole lot of companies hiring right now in our area. And if you are hired on and the new company starts to feel the crunch - who will be the first to be let go?

To the OP - we have been planning for times like this for 30 yrs. It isn't the only thing we plan for, since invaribly planning for one emergency often covers a host of others at the same time. I think this is just the beginning of troubles.
I mentioned job loss. Job loss is bad, for Americans it's a crisis because money and material items are God. You're being moved to Michigan, that's still a free state. You're not being forced to Michigan or told you're not allowed to leave where you are now.
 

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In my opinion, this is just a bump in the road. Come January, we'll have a better picture (after the holidays, reports on inventory and manufacturing and job loss) of what's really happening.
 

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Yes, this *IS* what I have been planning for.

Now that the FEDS also see the problem, changes will be made. In 6 months time, I predict these changes will either make things better or much worse.

In 8 months time, the place where DH works MIGHT have to trim their staff. They should be good until then, but, if people don't have money coming in then neither will where DH works.

There is still currently more than he can do, but, he is starting to catch up and that worries him.
 

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Grid electric's still up. Internet up. TV stations up. No Zombies. No gunfire in the distance (well, 'some', it IS hunting season)...

so no, this isn't even a baby poo hit the fan...

Scroll down to the SEP subforum. That's where the really deep shtf, and TEOTWAWKI discussions are located.
 

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My defination of SHTF is another major attack on our soil, taking out power plants, water supplies and physical interstructure. I have a different perspective.... our family is all grown and we raise all our meat and a good % of other food (seeds saved too). We heat with wood, have a wood lot right behind our house and hand tools to harvest wood if no gas. A spring, along with the house well, is along side the driveway.
The economic situation is really bad, but everyone is effected. An attact on our soil would be restricted to sections of the country, we are 167 miles from NYC...Joan
 

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I think this is it. I think the universe has changed forever from the combination of:

>Peak oil and the failure to adjust manufacturing to that new reality and develop alternative energy sources
>The rise of China as both the biggest manufacturer and the fastest growing consumer of resources
>The phenomenal drain of unnecessary war expenditure to the detriment of domestic infrastructure and education
>The unregulated and unmitigated greed of Wall Street and the multilevel shell game of essentially bogus, invented financial instruments
>The growth of the idea that unearned income is the only way to create savings/personal wealth & security
>The excessive concentration of wealth into the top 2 or 5% and the reduction of real wages for both the working poor and the middle class
>The absurd housing bubble
>The disconnection between lenders and the risk of the loans they make (from selling them off instead of holding them)
>The complete acceptance of credit cards as a way of life combined with planned obsolescence of pretty much all goods sold
>The acceptance of corporate pre-eminence over independent small business

The unemployment statistics are very skewed -- they do not count the people who have given up looking, they do not show people working at a job that does not pay the bills, they do not show people having to work 2 and 3 jobs to make ends meet, and they probably do not show the unemployed self-employed who are not eligible to collect unemployment.

I think that it could get as bad as the 1930's, and I think that most people do not have the skills it takes to live poor. We live in a society which has fewer farmers than prisoners, and where a huge number of people don't even know how to cook.

I don't mean to be pessimistic, but if you're not already in a chickenwire canoe, you're in the handbasket floating along behind, and we're all going down the drain to the same place.

But perhaps that is just my perspective, because my business failed, and I had to get foodstamps, and the intake clerk said, "Wow. You're the second businessperson I've had apply today."
 

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I agree with Snoozy too. I think the current financial situation is unprecedented. We know what caused the Great Depression. To that extent the government is smarter. Unfortunately we have a global situation that's worsening by the day. We're living in or around a house of cards that's started to fall. There's no up until we hit bottom. When that will occur is anyone's guess. My guess is we're looking at a multi-year slump. The upcoming holidays are going to be miserable for retailers. That will be another card to fall. Watch the consumer confidence index. We may see a bump after the election. It won't take long before folks realize that a new administration can't stop the cards from falling. Then confidence will really fall. For most people the best thing is to be as debt free as possible.
 
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