I'm no expert, by any means, but it may depend on the dog. By four months, my BC/lab X was definitely leaning towards the water dog half. She loved to fetch, would almost point at birds and such, and you couldn't keep her out of the water, swam like a fish. Now, she's 8 and the herding half is coming out. She's taken to herding the cats (they're thrilled) and when I use her to chase off the neighbors cows, she's definitely showing some herding characteristics. She used to just run thru the middle of them and chase blindly. I suspect some dogs of the same breeding may also just be dogs. I also have golden retriever/aussie X and he's just a dog. No retrieving characteristics in the least but no herding characteristics either. He's just a great family/kid dog who loves to go out and play with his people in any fashion they want. He does love to run, tho. So I'd just try playing with the pup in different ways and see what the dog likes.