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SM Entrepreneuraholic
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"Experts should level with the public about the good news..." exclaims Makary (who is likely on the verge of getting canceled), as he cites the "miracle" 77% drop in cases over the past 6 weeks and that testing likely only captured about 10% - 25% of infections; he extrapolates that to saying 55% of Americans have natural immunity (and add to that the 15% of Americans that have been vaccinated). Additionally, he cites Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, who believes that 250mm doses of the vaccine will have be delivered to 150mm people by the end of March.​
"There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected.
At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life." zerohedge "​
 

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SM Entrepreneuraholic
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Discussion Starter #5
The WHO changed the sensitivity rate for detection...that's why the numbers have drastically dropped. Amazing how that works once the election is over.
While that's true, that doesn't explain the decline in deaths or the steep decline in hospitalizations.
 

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The WHO changed the sensitivity rate for detection...that's why the numbers have drastically dropped. Amazing how that works once the election is over.
I was thinking that exact same thing. I don’t believe in coincidences.
 
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While that's true, that doesn't explain the decline in deaths or the steep decline in hospitalizations.
Don't you think the death of the most vulnerable has run its course?
 

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While that's true, that doesn't explain the decline in deaths or the steep decline in hospitalizations.
If the revised testing does not show the patient to have covid then they patient is hospitalized for something other than covid. Or they have died from something other than covid. Thus the decline your talking about. Also by now, those most of those likely to be seriously affected by covid have been exposed and dealt with. So naturally a decline. Most likely the incentive for high numbers of positive cases has gone away and new incentives for less cases and deaths is now in process.
 

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Any talk of herd immunity is a joke because they alternate news stories about it with stories of how we WON'T have herd immunity due to the virus mutations.

Geez.
 

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SM Entrepreneuraholic
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Discussion Starter #11
If the revised testing does not show the patient to have covid then they patient is hospitalized for something other than covid. Or they have died from something other than covid. Thus the decline your talking about. Also by now, those most of those likely to be seriously affected by covid have been exposed and dealt with. So naturally a decline. Most likely the incentive for high numbers of positive cases has gone away and new incentives for less cases and deaths is now in process.
The change in testing should eliminate false positives, so it should have little to do with hospitalizations.
 

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Likely a lot of reasons. Lower level testing and fewer tests being done and I think a lot of areas near herd immunity. Our county statistics show 14% of the population has been infected but the 'experts' say actual infections are between 4 and 8 times that due to asymptomatic cases and people who never got sick enough to seek medical care. Even at 4 times, our infection number would be 56% and we have vaccinated 14%. That's getting to about 70% but some of those vaccinated may have been infected too, but we are still getting into herd immunity territory. Probably why our county new cases are now near zero. Same with the county across the river in Indiana. Over 30,000 people and cases there have dropped from 15 or 20 per day to zero to 3.
 

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As soon as antibody tests were available, they should have done some sample grabs, and they could have come up with a baseline that determined where we were at in the pandemic. Everywhere that was done the results were buried pretty quick. It was never about science. It was about politics the whole time.
 

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In reality we probably could have seen herd immunity last April, but we probably had some bumps on the graph from the ridiculous lockdown measures drawing out the curve. There probably some bumps on the graph from new strains, we probably haven't identified a tenth of the variants, and won't. There will be bumps on the graph next fall, and every fall thereafter, until the end of time. Everybody is going to die, but that's good news because it means nothing has changed.
 

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I always get a kick out of the news guys who says everyday "Stock prices were down today on news of a thunder storm in Lower Slobovia," as if all the little old ladies who own most of the stocks sit around all day listening to their short wave radios for weather reports from around the world, then quickly phone their brokers to make trades....Nonesense. The news guy is trying to find some coincidental explanation for the stock prices after the prices change on their own.

So it is for all the "explanations" they're coming up with on how & why CoViD numbers are changing. The truth is, it's all in the numbers- the "built in" characteristics of the CoV & Human biology.

Leopards have spots. Tigers have stripes. Epidemics exhibit waves & hot spots in time & space. It's all the same math (Laplacian Diffusion Equation) and nothing we do will change it. (Cf- similar numbers for CA & FL or Sweden vs GB, despite markedly different regs)

BTW- it looks like new positives are occurring at a rate of about 10% per week, so. If that rate found on all those presenting for tests can be extrapolated to the general population ,ie- including those not getting tested, then after 10 weeks, everyone should have been exposed . We may well be at the point of herd immunity now and the new cases just represent the endemic rate of infection (like, say, TB- there's always some new cases. It can't go away completely.)...Had we never "closed down": this all would be ancient history by now.
 
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