Cattle Prices

Discussion in 'Cattle' started by angus_guy, Dec 31, 2004.

  1. angus_guy

    angus_guy Well-Known Member

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    What do we prognosticators think the price of cattle will do now that our borders are opened up to our neighbors in the north?
     
  2. dcs13

    dcs13 Member

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    well, reading the Drudge report this AM, that may be on hold again...They have POSSIBLY found another case of MC in Canada. So I would guess the prices here in the lower 48 will stay up. We've been getting near a dollar a pound (sometimes a little more)at sale since this all started.
     

  3. Wanda

    Wanda Well-Known Member

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    The way our trade system is set up a bse pos. cow will not change the opening. Both countries can have i confirmed bse case per million head of cattle. Canada could have 14 cases per 12 months and not effect the agrement. They think this is the amount of natural ocurance in the cattle population. The opening is only to cattle 30 months and younger, must move in sealed trucks may not be resold before slaughter also must be perm. marked. Rumors will drive short term mkts as always. As far as volume of beef goes it shouldn't change since the meat from these cattle are coming in now as boxed beef.
    Mr Wanda
    Mike
     
  4. MRSSTEAK

    MRSSTEAK Well-Known Member

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    How do you find out the price of beef in your area? Hanging or on the hoof? The only thing I go off of is reading the local ads and I see what other farmers are charging. Then I base my prices somewhere in between. We grow our own hay, so we have very little cost out of pocket to raise them. It's mostly labor. But is there an agency you can call or a website you can go to, to see what the going rate is? I've asked a couple local mobile butchers and they were no help.
     
  5. cloverfarm

    cloverfarm Well-Known Member

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    DH likes this site ...

    http://www.agriamerica.com/

    It has an audio feed that he listens to. (He's more of an audio/oral learner than I am I guess :confused: )

    he also checks the auction prices in the local farm paper

    Hope taht helps ...
    Ann
     
  6. JeffNY

    JeffNY Seeking Type

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    I like the idea that our borders are closed. The fact the beef prices went up with the border closed helped with cattle prices. I remember when beef was .33 a lb here in NY. Now it is .70c to 1.00+ a lb. That is awesome. Maybe with the scare, the auction barns will be less inclined to get canadian based cattle, but I doubt that.


    Jeff
     
  7. tinknal

    tinknal Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Beef is on a 10 year cycle, always has been. Prices will tank within 18 months, bottom out in 5 years, and peak again 10 years from now. Take my advice. If you are in beef cattle for a profit, and can make money by selling in the next year, SELL! I expect to see plenty of whining in a year or so about buying high and selling low. I want a few head, but I'll wait til they tank and get 3 for the price of one today.
     
  8. JeffNY

    JeffNY Seeking Type

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    Funny part about the cycle, here, it never has been this high. I think the average before the border was shut here, was .33.



    Jeff
     
  9. Timber

    Timber Well-Known Member

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    If Canadians were smart they would rally for to sell beef as frozen process beef, instead of shipping on hoof. Point being meat is stored in lots, hold in locker until passes all testing by both governments. Shipped frozen to across border to distribution centers.

    MRSSTEAK check around your area for auction houses some for some of them them have a weekly flyer of their auctions. Here in OH we have a weekly farming paper called Farm & Dairy which carries the selling prices of the big houses.

    We took the last of the Herefords late spring calves to a local auction two weeks ago. They went as feeders weights were 500 to 550 at price .63 lb. We were quite pleased, just for not having to truck to the larger auction houses.
    Maybe with people's fear and Bush's steadfast we will finally have a break in the market.

    Timber
     
  10. Wanda

    Wanda Well-Known Member

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    Jeff I think you should go back and check cattle prices before and after the border closing. You should read what is going on! Canadian cattle less than 30 months can come in for slaughter or feeding. They can not be resold at your salebarn :no: The meat from canadian cattle has been coming into this country as box beef already so there will not be much change in the meat supply. The high prices are from demand not a shortage of beef , think adkins diets!!!!!!!!! Tinknal if it was as simple as a five year cycle all of us would be rich. There are more consumers of beef in the world every day and the producers are there to supply them but the logistics and production are advancing at a rapid rate. Jump on and hang on or set back and watch your cycle ,your choice :D Remember history proves history but does not predict the future.
    Mr Wanda
    Mike
     
  11. wr

    wr Moderator Staff Member Supporter

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    I don't think the restrictive opening is going to have much effect on your cattle prices, prior to the closure, cattle prices were quite high anyhow. The reopening the border with us considered to be a low risk BSE country, as is the US. That means it's expected that BOTH our countries have a certain number of affected animals that predate that feed regulations. That is part of an agreement that Canada and the US signed with EU and other trade partners when BSE hit in EU. They broke no part of that agreement and neither did we, the pact requires a certain percentage of animals to be tested and no more than a certain amount of animals found posative. I would also suggest that with any economy, trade involves more than one specific item and the US has a huge desire to utilize all Canada's surplus oil and gas and they'd probably rather accept the agreement on cattle as it were written and agreed upon than loose any part of an economical and fairly abundant supply. Another thing to consider is the fact that some areas in the US are strugging to meet their own demand (on average you're barely holding your own) and producers are struggling to keep back replacement heifers and actually aren't able to. None of the animals brought in with be in a situation where they can be used as breeders. I noticed that the US must feel they have some amount of BSE or aren't too concerned about the issue. When they did find the single cow in Washington, we didn't see the incredibly high numbers of other cattle killed and tested that you normally see associated with a posative test. When we did our testing after the cow was located up here, US vets played a strong role in the investigation so the US would have great insight into the whole thing.
     
  12. cloverfarm

    cloverfarm Well-Known Member

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    Glad to see input from both sides of the border. Interesting.

    ann
     
  13. JeffNY

    JeffNY Seeking Type

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    Yes now im aware of boxed beef, found out about that 2 weeks before Christmas. The one place that did sell that, we were thinking of buying a big roast. We decided not to, and bought from another butcher house that buys beef that originates from the US. As far as demand? Actually some places that used to buy from canada (a whole animal) have to buy domestic. Afterall these are slaughter houses, not shopping stores. There for the price rose, and it rose shortly after that border closed here. It didn't start prior, it started after.. Before it was 35 cents or so, after it went to 70 cents. But keep in mind, some regions are different.




    Jeff
     
  14. wr

    wr Moderator Staff Member Supporter

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    Jeff, you make it sound like it's a one way street. I'm not sure if you are aware or not but a lot of US cattle is sold to Canada as well as Canadian cattle sold into the US. Is it just as unpalatable for you to see US cattle sold to Canada or only Canadian cattle sold into the US? Before this matter arose, ranchers on both sides of the border were very unified. We have personally bought some excellent breeding stock from Colorado and we've sold some great breeding stock back into the US. I know of a very reputable Hereford breeder that was selling genetics that are tough to get into the US and he made a good living but he was also buying at least $100,000 of US genetics. We have genetics you need and you have genetics we need. Your thinking is short sighted, it's not just about meat, it's also about breed enhancement and a kinship among ranchers. Both our countries have lost access to some wonderful foundation genetics when we shut out Europe and again, we are losing. The whole issue of BSE has done nothing but cause a dirty rift when more emphasis should be placed on learning about the disease, what causes it and how to handle it than snubbing other countries. The cattle issue is much greater than just beef.
     
  15. Wanda

    Wanda Well-Known Member

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    Jeff please explain about this 35cent you keep talking about. I have raised cattle for 40 years and I would like to get in on that. If cattle in your area are that cheap I could stand to buy a few pot'' loads and make some money. Do you have a true grasp of what I am talking about when I say ''boxed beef''. I know there are a lot of people that think the border opening is bad and tell a lot of things that are not true but please do yourself a favor and check things out before you pass them along.
    Mr Wanda
    Mike
     
  16. JeffNY

    JeffNY Seeking Type

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    Well by experience and living here all my life, and talking with people I know whats up. Here in Eastern NY, things are different than other areas. Before the border closed, we sent a bull to the market, it went for 33 cents or so a lb. After the border closed, the price per lb went from that to .70 cents here. Now out west, perhaps even western NY, or other areas might be different. A lot of things are different in certain areas of the US. For example (yes its a different subject but regions are different) milk prices are higher here, than California due to the amount of cows in California. I saw these prices in hoards dairyman. Here it was 15.00, while in Florida it was 18.00 or so, then a little to their north it was 16 or so. So different areas have different prices. Ever since that border closed, the prices did go up, and it was not a coincidence. This one trucker that goes to the auction anytime they have one, has been trucking for many many years. He is in his 60's, and they never saw prices this high ever.


    Jeff
     
  17. tinknal

    tinknal Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Jeff, bulls always go low. You cannot compare the bull price to fats or feeders.
     
  18. tinknal

    tinknal Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Wanda, check out beef peaks going back to 1975. I got 50 bucks that says beef will begin a downward trend around the end of the year.
     
  19. JeffNY

    JeffNY Seeking Type

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    Once again, untill you have lived here, its an asumption on peoples part. The .70 cents a lb was for both steers AND bulls.



    Jeff
     
  20. wr

    wr Moderator Staff Member Supporter

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    Jeff, I'm assuming that that price is for dairy steers, not feeder steers. Unless things are very different there than anyplace else, that is about the only time that fats and canners run the same price. If that is the case, the reason the steers run through so cheap is because of the long finish time the feedlots don't want them and will only take them if they are unable to get an adequate supply of beef breeds. I don't feel you can use dairy cattle as a reasonable marker for cattle prices. The cattle they sell are not their primary source of income, it's a lot like the PMU farms complaining cause they only get $50 for a weanling foal.