Stock market day trading thread

willow_girl · #**141** 03/04/11, 10:09 PM

You HAD to make me look, Clove!

I am NOT going to calculate how much money I would have made if I'd held on to it, though ...

I noticed yesterday that they have started offering a dividend. I imagine that gave a nice boost to the price ...

I don't have any dogs in the fight at the moment; have been waiting for my funds to settle. I'll be back in the game Monday, though!

mrpink · #**142** 03/05/11, 09:10 PM

any one care to give there opinion on these two.
AFCE will be reporting on wed march the 9th. do you think this would be a good short term buy to flip?
MXC maybe a good candidate to by and hold for a little bit?

willow_girl · #**143** 03/06/11, 08:43 AM

IMO:

AFCE is down almost $2 a share from its 52-week high in January. Ordinarily that would make it a good candidate for play according to my formula. The thing I don't like is that analysts are not big on this stock. Smartconsensus downgraded it to hold from buy on 1/23 and its stock price has went down 6.1% since. According to Reuters, "For the fourty (sp.) weeks ended 3 October 2010, AFC Enterprises, Inc.'s revenues decreased 3% to $112.2M."

I generally look for things that are trending up. I would probably pass on this one unless it starts to take off on Monday. (It doesn't seem to be getting much pre-report play so far.)

OK, let's look at MXC. At first glance, I really liked the looks of this one! Again, down a bit from its 52-week high, but up on Friday (IIRC, the market was down overall) and up again in after-hours. But scratch a little deeper, and you find (according to PR Newswire):

Quote:

Mexco Energy Corporation (AMEX: MXC) today reported net income of $26,898 for the quarter ending December 31, 2010, the Company's third quarter of fiscal 2011, compared to net income of $167,145 for the same quarter of fiscal 2010.

Operating revenues in the third quarter of fiscal 2011 were $756,576, a decrease of 13% from $865,169 for the third quarter of fiscal 2010.

The average sales price for the quarter ending December 31, 2010 was $5.34 per Mcfe compared to $5.25 per Mcfe for the quarter ending December 31, 2009, an increase of 2%. Oil production decreased 8% and gas production decreased 15% during the third quarter of fiscal 2011 as compared to the third quarter of fiscal 2010. This decrease in oil and gas production is attributable to natural decline.

For the nine months ended December 31, 2010, the Company reported net income of $102,714, compared to $257,492 for the same period of fiscal 2010. Operating revenues increased 5% to $2,381,608 for the nine months ended December 31, 2010 from $2,269,640 for the same period of fiscal 2010.

I don't think I'd buy this stock to hold. I did put it on my list to watch ... if it sustains it current stock price, it might be a good candidate to play around the time of its next earnings report (May).

Again, just my opinion!

I started looking at the calendar last night, but didn't find anything I want. Will give it another go today!

Here is one I missed! HOGS, a $19 stock up .22 cents on Friday and .75 in after hours trading. It reported over the weekend and beat analyst estimates. Might still get some play on Monday, but the time to buy it was last Wed. or Thurs. Darn it!!!

#**144** 03/06/11, 09:06 AM

MXC is an extremely low float, easily manipulated stock that trades in exaggerated response to the oil market. Thus the move from $8 to $18 in 3 days as volume went from 2300 to 665,800. During the oil spike in 2008 it went from $5 to $55.

Halfway · #**145** 03/06/11, 10:20 AM

stockfetcher.com is invaluable for screening and backtesting. I'll give them a plug because it is THE standard in screeners.

This market is running on QE2 and NOT fundamentals.....TA is tricky and fundamental analysis is almost harder.

Trading is not investing, handle it differently.

Cut losses quickly.....do not hold junk that has / is causing you pain...let it go.

willow_girl · #**146** 03/06/11, 10:22 AM

Ahh, but will it do it again?!

mrpink · #**147** 03/06/11, 03:03 PM

willow girl thanks for your opinions that is what I was wanting. looking at the chart it ran up in jan before earnings were released then has trended back down. I wondered if it would do it again this time. I'll watch it and see what happens. I'm not actually buying yet just paper trading trying to learn.

mxc being a low float would seem like a positive for trading in the short term. it would give you the movement in price needed to make a few bucks(or lose a few depending on how the stock moves). being that oil has been on the rise and looks to go further maybe it will be manipulated upward. again just trying to learn and understand a few things.
would mxc be a good candidate to both buy a position in and short at the same time?

#**148** 03/06/11, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrpink

would mxc be a good candidate to both buy a position in and short at the same time?

If you were to go long and short at the same time, there is absolutely no profit involved. for instance, if you were to go long and short at $10, and the stock went to $11, your long position would be up a dollar, but your short position would be down a dollar. Yet you would lose money because you would have to pay commissions on both trades.

willow_girl · #**149** 03/06/11, 05:03 PM

Quote:

looking at the chart it ran up in jan before earnings were released then has trended back down. I wondered if it would do it again this time.

It might!

I always try to hedge my bets, though, by picking a company that looks like it's growing or increasing in profitability.

Check out CRZO. Here's what one analyst had to say about it:

Quote:

S&P Financial Writer Frank Barone
Operational Review March 02, 2011
Income Statement Analysis & Financial Review
Total revenues for the nine months ended September 30, 2010 were $102.4 million vs. $83.8 million in the prior year, advancing 22% year over year. Total costs and expenses fell 73%, and operating income was $20.9 million, vs. an operating loss of $221.3 million for last year. For the first three quarters of the fiscal year, net income was $45.9 million ($1.36 a share), vs. a loss of $136.4 million ($4.40 a share) in 2009.
In the third quarter, total revenues were $30.5 million vs. $27.3 million in the prior year, growing by 12% year to year. Total costs and expenses fell 2%, and operating income for the quarter was $1.9 million, vs. an operating loss of $1.9 million in the prior-year period. The net income was $24.4 million ($0.69 a share), vs. a loss of $4.8 million ($0.15 a share) in the third quarter of 2009.

It reports Thursday. Was up on Friday. It's on my short list.

mrpink · #**150** 03/06/11, 07:17 PM

I saw crzo yesterday when I was looking at the earning calender for the upcoming week. My issue is that I'm only going to start with $1000 which means I could only buy 27 shares. would I be better off the buy a lower priced stock with more volatility? thats one issue I've been wrestling with

**clovis** · #**151** 03/06/11, 10:11 PM

mrpink-

I think you are better off with lower priced stock if you only have $1000 to gamble.

Just do the math. If your 27 shares went up $1 each, that leaves you with $27 gross profit. After you deduct your trading fees, with Scottrade they are going to be $7 for the buy, and $7 for the sell, you are going to have a whopping $13 profit.

I used to watch Alcoa every day, and it had lots of ups and downs. At $16.50 a share, you'll get more bang for your buck....about 60 shares. Still not great, but better than 27 shares.

IMO, it is going to be harder to catch a $1 ride on the lower priced stocks. It happens every day, but not as much as the $30 and up shares.

If you can build up your account, even if it is just by $200 or $300, it really starts to change the math.

On the other hand, every trade in the positive helps your situation. If you can pull off a $13 profit 10 times a month, in just a few short months, your account will grow, allowing you to by even more shares.

HTH.

**clovis** · #**152** 03/06/11, 10:17 PM

Willow-

I still think that SLW has legs if you are still watching it.

mrpink · #**153** 03/06/11, 11:02 PM

I have done the math over and over. been struggling with this very issue for years. a $35 stock would need to increase about 2.8% to equal a $1 increase. a $17 stock would have to increase about 5.8% to equal a $1 increase. either way you look at it I really need about a 5% increase from any stock regardless of price. is a higher priced stock more likely to increase 5% then a lower priced one? I think for me I need to find stocks that have more volatility which of course increases my chances to lose money as well. or either pick a stock that has a good chance to increase over several days and hold it longer. I will just have to find my comfort level I know, but I do like to get other peoples opinions

**clovis** · #**154** 03/06/11, 11:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrpink

I have done the math over and over. been struggling with this very issue for years. a $35 stock would need to increase about 2.8% to equal a $1 increase. a $17 stock would have to increase about 5.8% to equal a $1 increase. either way you look at it I really need about a 5% increase from any stock regardless of price. is a higher priced stock more likely to increase 5% then a lower priced one? I think for me I need to find stocks that have more volatility which of course increases my chances to lose money as well. or either pick a stock that has a good chance to increase over several days and hold it longer. I will just have to find my comfort level I know, but I do like to get other peoples opinions

I think you are on the right path.

I'm sure you've considered working longer trades where you hold a stock for several weeks and wait for the gain in that time frame. Can you just work the safer bets until you get your account built up?

FWIW, I understand where you are coming from. I am in the same boat. I don't have the money right now to be sinking into the market, even though I see plenty of bargains. Take SLW for example. I've been watching that stock for several years, and it had a hard pullback recently to $28. I only had $400 in my account so about 14 shares was going to be the best that I could do. It is at 44.96 right now. At the time, I wrestled with whether it would be worth jacking with 14 shares...and now I know that it would have been an awesome play with a $220 profit.

The bigger issue is that you are in the market and trying, which beats 90% of most people's investing. I meet people all the time that say stupid things like "You need $10,000 at bare minimum to get in the stock market", which is pure rubbish IMO. Those are the folks that are just waiting for their big day to come, as if they are going to hit it rich with an inheritance or the lottery. They've missed years and years and years of investing and making money, while folks like us are slowly growing month by month.

The most important point that I would like to share is this:

If you are small time like me, and have to make every trade count, you'll be a wiser and better investor who is more aware of the stock, market, conditions, etc. I am a super conservative investor, yet I think I am a better trader because of it.

willow_girl · #**155** 03/07/11, 07:36 AM

Great post Clovis!

I picked up 200 shares each of CRZO and AEO this morning. Right now I'm down $90 bucks, ouch! Well, we'll see how it plays out, I guess.

Luckily I have to go to work now, so I can't sit here staring at the streaming quotes and panicking.

willow_girl · #**156** 03/07/11, 11:09 PM

Well I guess I'm batting .500 for the day. CRZO paid out like a slot machine! Although (as usual) I muffed it up. Since the market was down on Friday, I didn't want to expect too much, so I bought 200 shares and set my sell at +.50, which was exactly the wrong decision as the stock shot up over $1! Oy. I was at work and couldn't keep an eye on things so it sold for a net $80.

AEO bounced around a bit and ended the day $32 in the hole. I think I'll see how it does in the morning before I make any decisions. Normally I don't invest in retail, F&B, or a couple other sectors, but I liked this company because it's local and I actually know a couple people who work at its HQ downtown. (No, they didn't give me any insider trading tips!) But I did read online that it's been the subject of a lot of insider buys recently, which seems like a good sign. I may hang on to it until the end of the month; the dividend will pay my trading fees.

Mr. Pink, I was giving some thought to your situation today. It seems in day trading, the transaction fees would eat you alive. What about investing in a nice fund? I have a few shares of an index fund called PRF in my IRA ... think I've held it for about a year. It's up 16% since I bought it. (Can't take credit for this one; it was DH's pick.) It pays a dividend, too, which is another way to maximize your gain. Just a thought!

mrpink · #**157** 03/07/11, 11:54 PM

willow I guess you didn't catch that spike in aeo at 3:48 it jumped up to $15.85. it only lasted a few minutes though. as to my situation I'm pretty set on doing some trading might have to hold a little longer and\or take a little higher risk but I feel comfortable about it. I took some time last night a made me a spread sheet to run some numbers in. the fee does make a big difference though. I stumbled on sogotrade this morning there fee is only $3 per trade so I modified my spread sheet to compare scottrades $14 round trip to sogotrades $6 round trip and found out that $8 difference adds up. I do believe it is doable though. besides before I decided to do this then I made sure I was ok with myself if I lost it all. I'm going to paper trade on my spread sheet for a bit and work out my plan of attack the best I can. so expect to be bugged some more by me :-)

willow_girl · #**158** 03/08/11, 07:29 AM

That's an excellent idea, to shop around and keep your trading fees as low as possible, especially as there is so much data and analysis out there that can be had for free!

So AEO went up to $15.85? I had my sell set at $15.87!

Oh well, can't win 'em all!

**clovis** · #**159** 03/08/11, 08:59 PM

Does anyone on this thread short stocks?

I understand the premise, but have never done it. If I could have been in the market today, one of the stocks I saw was a ready candidate for shorting...I would have easily made $1 a share.

Bret · #**160** 03/09/11, 11:51 AM

It might be OK if you also owned the underlying stock. It is a way to get hurt really bad if you do not own the stock, and the price goes against you. The losses can be infinate.

As people move to cover their shorts, it can keep driving the price up, if there are no shares to be had.

editing now--I am sorry, I did not answer your question. I have not shorted stocks.