Agricultural Carrying Capacity as Provided by Petroleum

Forerunner · #21 03/25/10, 07:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ernie

Well, I tend to try to give the "best case" scenario. Any number of things could cause the situation to detoriate very rapidly and compress the schedule.

Say for instance that the price of gasoline goes up, starting riots across the United States. Law enforcement and military will then need to be moving about a lot more, burning yet MORE gasoline and depleting our overall supply that much faster.

That's what I see happening, generally.
An event will trigger a bigger event and the whole house of cards will crash quick. Throw a bunch of foreign troops in there when enough US military and police figure out that they are firing on their cousins and uncles, and you have a real maelstrom.

The irony is, Americans have thought it cute to have our swaggering military intimidating the citizenry of other nations for decades.
We'll see how much fun it is when the Chinese come in by the hundreds of thousands.
What goes around comes around.

GoldenCityMuse · #22 03/25/10, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mnn2501

I'd sure like to know where this cheap natural gas is cause its expensive as H#ll here. My gas bill this year was 3x what it was last year and last year it was double what it was the year before.

I'll be chopping as much wood as I can this year

Well, it's cheap at the wellhead, which does not necessarily translate to low prices to you.

Here is one article I have seen..

Natural Gas Falls to Nearly Six-Month Low

timfromohio · #23 03/25/10, 07:38 PM

"We have several hundred years supply of coal still in the ground too.

Add in some minor <10% solar & wind power, & we'll be good to go. Along with nuke of course. "

Respectfully, GSM - this statement was my humor for the evening. Don't get me wrong, I really don't want things to fall apart. However, the entire modern world exists now in its current form b/c of cheap oil. There is no viable substitute for this. Coal is nice, but a tremendous amount of oil is used to make use of the coal - extracting it, transporting it, etc. Really, it's the same with all of the other energy sources you mentioned - not a one of them can stand without cheap oil - there is an interdependence. You've got to have the benefits of cheap oil to run any of the above. There is neither a single alternative energy technology, nor a host of them that could, when put together, replace life as it exists now should cheap oil disappear.

The best I think we can hope for is a long, gradual slide (OK Ernie - trying to think of the "best case" scenerio here) that allows for the least convulsive adjustments possible.

timfromohio · #24 03/25/10, 07:39 PM

PS - meant "GCM", not "GSM" - apoloiges.

GoldenCityMuse · #25 03/25/10, 08:06 PM

Well, what I meant from my statement that it was not all going to end in 2, 3 or even 5 years.

I absolutely agree that we are entering a long slow slide, I don't agree that it will collapse from lack of oil. [It might from something else, but that is a matter for other topics]

Sure coal is not nearly as convenient as oil, but it can be converted to 'coal oil' kerosene, which is portable, but of course not as energy dense as diesel.

Anyway, I have said else where that superinsulating your house and conserving energy as much as you can now will better prepare you.

Ernie · #26 03/25/10, 08:26 PM

Think of it like dehydration, GCM.

Does the human body actually need to be completely out of water before problems start? No. Once you reach a certain level of dehydration then minor issues start cropping up, which escalate into larger and larger ones.

GoldenCityMuse · #27 03/25/10, 09:15 PM

Like I said Ernie, it IS going to have an effect, which is what I meant by a long, slow slide, or even a long medium fast slide. By medium fast I think 15-25 years, or possibly 10-30 years.

We will adapt, and that will drag it on out.

Now if you want to talk about quick collapse, I think that an economic collapse is HIGHLY probable in 2-5 years. That is my biggest concern.

Reverting to horse drawn plows, pretty doubtful. If it does happen, I'll be sure to acknowledge my incorrect thinking. If that does come to pass, odds are I won't be around to care. [And ya'll might not either - aackk]

Yes, prices are going to go up, I'm trying to prepare, but I am still a long way from where i wnat to be.
Superinsulated house, solar panels, wood stove, fuel efficient cars, propane fueled vehicle.

Am debt free though, so it is a start.

texican · #28 03/25/10, 09:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenCityMuse

Oil may be rising in price and dropping in availability, but we still have lots of other fossil fuels to substitute with. And hey, Nat Gas is cheap right now, right Texican. Might not be a bad idea to find a CNG vehicle to buy.

Actually, what I'd like is a tri-fuel auto. LPG/NG/gas.

We have several hundred years supply of coal still in the ground too.

Add in some minor <10% solar & wind power, & we'll be good to go. Along with nuke of course.

I'd kill to get a natural gas car (or preferably a truck)... especially if the technology existed (for a home user) to compress the natural gas and top off your tanks at home. I have free gas, and would use even more than I do now, if I could get a vehicle to run off it.

Mnn2501... spot gas is $4.02, which is insufferably low. Hopefully, all public land drilling will soon cease. If ng was pegged to oil, it'd be around $8.

We keep finding new deposits of oil... however, they'll only be produced with higher prices. At some point, new discoveries will cease. I don't think we're going to run out of oil soon, and it certainly won't be overnight. When the big crunchy time arrives, the US won't be facing the demon alone... every industrialized country will be in the same boat.

We're only three days away from anarchy. Relatively prosperous Chile realized it wasn't immune from this rule. The world could be awash in oil, but if supply lines are disrupted, or a handful (and all we have are a handful in the US) of refineries go down, for whatever reason (explosion, destruction, etc...) they won't come back for years. And without fuel for trains and trucks, food deliveries cease, people riot, cities burn.

I've driven 18 hour days for a week, in my truck. I've driven 26 hours in a lump. Afterwards, I was tired. I've ridden horses and pulled pack mules for a week, in western wilderness areas... after a day of simply riding (and occasionally getting off to crosscut saw a log in two), I was exhausted... bone weary exhaustion.

What I'm trying to get around to saying is that manual labor without a tractor to do the 'heavy lifting' isn't going to get much grain grown. There are some hardy souls that grow all their own food, with nothing but human labor... but, they're not producing enough for dozens of others.

The 90% population drop I initially mentioned could happen with plenty of oil around.... if it doesn't get to who needs it, it's game over... unless you have a steady secure source of grub, stored and reproducing on the 'hoof'.

**Ross** · #29 03/25/10, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Sure coil is not nearly as convenient as oil, but it can be converted to 'coal oil' kerosene, which is portable, but of course not as energy dense as diesel.

I'm pretty sure kerosene has slightly more btu's per gallon than diesel. Been a looooong day here and I might be wrong. Wiki has an interesting write up for coal.

Main article: Coal liquefaction
Coal can also be converted into liquid fuels such as gasoline or diesel by several different processes. In the direct liquefaction processes, the coal is either hydrogenated or carbonized. Hydrogenation processes are the Bergius process,[25] the SRC-I and SRC-II (Solvent Refined Coal) processes and the NUS Corporation hydrogenation process.[26][27] In the process of low-temperature carbonization, coal is coked at temperatures between 680 °F (360 °C) and 1,380 °F (750 °C). These temperatures optimize the production of coal tars richer in lighter hydrocarbons than normal coal tar. The coal tar is then further processed into fuels. Alternatively, coal can be converted into a gas first, and then into a liquid, by using the Fischer-Tropsch process. An overview of coal liquefaction and its future potential is available.[28]

Check out the entire entry here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal#ci...e-handbook2-25

springvalley · #30 03/25/10, 10:23 PM

Hey MNN2501, I do not have my head buried in the sand, I do know what will happen if tshtf. Do you know there are companies that are making (New) plows for horses and oxen. It won`t take long at all to train horses or oxen to work the fields. Agriculture will be more regional than it is now. Trains will be used more for trasportation. Horse and buggy short distance, it can be done. I will survive, I have the knowledge to adapt, Maybe people will have to go back to work for a change, and really work for their food. If my tractors stopped working next week I have eveything I need to farm like they use to. Horses, machinery, feed, harness,seed,(KNOWLEDGE) and the will to do it, and share my knowledge. So I sure hope this does not happen as the younger generation has no clue how to put in a days work like they use to, and they may starve, but then again they would probably just take it. Thanks Marc

Allen W · #31 03/26/10, 08:51 AM

In 1860 agriculture was considerably more local then it is today. You ate was produced locally, a lot of times it was what YOU produced. A lot of people today would starve to death with a bushel of wheat or corn at hand, let alone meat on the hoof.

The way things are going it may not matter about running out of oil, we will be returning to a sustenance living just to get buy. Our service industry economy can't survive if there aren't real jobs and industry to support it.

beaglady · #32 03/26/10, 11:12 AM

There's an up side to this potential loss of fossil fuels. If there is less corn grown, less HFCS in foods that don't need it. Probably less processed foods in general.

GoldenCityMuse · #33 03/26/10, 04:59 PM

Nice info Ross. You may be right about kerosene vs diesel. I may have had gasoline on my mind & mixed the 2 up.

The coal could be used to power the liquification plant, so no need for oil to generate power. Did not realize coal could be converted into gasoline, bet it is expensive process to do.

PhilJohnson · #34 03/27/10, 12:33 PM

I've ran my truck on kerosene, little less power and the stuff is a lot more expensive than diesel. Ran it on drain oil too, little less power too. On the subject of animal power, I've been around a lot of it since I live in Amish country. If there is anything have learned about animal power is that it would be the same amount of work growing food for animals or fuel for machinery. In northern climates especially there is a lot of work involved in having them. Places like Cuba have an advantage when it comes to animal power since the growing season is pretty much all year around. If it comes to the point for me that fuel becomes too expensive I'll be converting to wood gas before I'd get a draft animal. Horse and buggy would definitely not be at the top of my list for transportation. Being around buggies and riding in one I would say a bike would be a much faster and easier. I don't have to waste time putting up hay for a bike. The only draft animal I would consider would be a dual purpose one, ie an ox.

Ernie · #35 03/27/10, 12:44 PM

I like the bicycle idea as well, and you can even get small carts to pull behind them.

AngieM2 · #36 03/27/10, 01:18 PM

I'm thinking bike or an adult trike with a possible pull behind cart available, there are more possibilities than I use to know of.

Stephen in SOKY · #37 03/27/10, 01:28 PM

It's a fairly common occurence around here, it happened to me again yesterday, to see a whole flock of Mennonite boys on bicycles with poultry and rabbit cages 3 and 4 deep tied to every surface/bar on their bikes going down the road to a trade day. Some are even using the recumbent bikes these days. When approaching from the rear all you can see are feathers!

mnn2501 · #38 04/01/10, 08:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by springvalley

Hey MNN2501, I do not have my head buried in the sand, I do know what will happen if tshtf. Do you know there are companies that are making (New) plows for horses and oxen.

And where are all the horses and oxen going to come from? do you think enough horses and oxen exist today to pull all these plows you think ar going to magically appear? (Iron has to be mined, shipped to foundries, steel made and shaped into plows, plows have to be shipped all over the country - all taking energy to do so)
Just how many generations of horses and oxen will it take to get enough to work all the fields? and how long will that take? and how will people eat in the meantime? Do you thinks its going to be as efficent as tractors? will you get the same number of bushels per acre?
where will all the petrolium based fertilizers come from? or what will substitute for them and how long will it take to ramp up that production?
How fertile do you think those fields are right now after decades of farming them using chemical fertilizers and pesticides? Do you know there is not a major crop that is not harvested by machine these days? How is losing that going to affect the harvest?
You may be able to grow enough to feed yourself (though I doubt many can) but what about the billions of city dwellers on the planet, what will happen to them while you are raising enough horses and oxen to pull those plows?

Forerunner · #39 04/01/10, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mnn2501

And where are all the horses and oxen going to come from? do you think enough horses and oxen exist today to pull all these plows you think ar going to magically appear? (Iron has to be mined, shipped to foundries, steel made and shaped into plows, plows have to be shipped all over the country - all taking energy to do so)
Just how many generations of horses and oxen will it take to get enough to work all the fields? and how long will that take? and how will people eat in the meantime? Do you thinks its going to be as efficent as tractors? will you get the same number of bushels per acre?
where will all the petrolium based fertilizers come from? or what will substitute for them and how long will it take to ramp up that production?
How fertile do you think those fields are right now after decades of farming them using chemical fertilizers and pesticides? Do you know there is not a major crop that is not harvested by machine these days? How is losing that going to affect the harvest?
You may be able to grow enough to feed yourself (though I doubt many can) but what about the billions of city dwellers on the planet, what will happen to them while you are raising enough horses and oxen to pull those plows?

Ouch.

Good points, all.

bee · #40 04/01/10, 10:28 AM

As for raising enough horses and oxen to pull plows; first you have to protect them from all those starving billions long enough to reproduce! Feed lots are full of steers that allowed to mature and trained(hmm shortage of oxen trainers out there too) would become oxen. I understand traditional oxen were dairy breeds. I have a picture in my mind of the "20 mule teams" but instead they are people all pulling together to till a field. Things get bad enough, we could see it. World over lots of food gets planted and harvested by "people power", just not huge fields like American ag grows things.