"Wheat in short supply/Wheat is plentiful--who do you trust?
 

The two most recent threads that show on my computer are contradictory. One says wheat is plentiful and the other says wheat is scarce. I am sure both posters are passing on the information in good faith from other sources (one possibly tongue in cheek). So how do you decide which reports to believe? I don't want to be a knee-jerk kind of person who always goes with the doom and gloom reports, nor do I want to be a Pollyanna who is always looking on the sunny side. I'm just trying to find the truthful side.

It is not just the wheat issue. I find the same thing all over. T-bonds will do this. T-bonds will do that. The best hedge is gold and silver. You can't eat gold and silver. It may hit the fan in the distant future but this is a blip. It has already hit the fan and splattered-we are on the way down. I have seen what appear to be reliable reports that propose all of these ideas in recent days, all from what appear to be reliable sources. I can't sort them all out without taking time to educate myself to be an economist, a political scientist, or an epidemiologist. In order to really be able to evaluate any one report, I would have to become an expert in that field to be able to ferret out faulty reasoning. I don't have time, interest, or probably the aptitude to do that in most cases.

So what guidelines do you use to determine who you will trust for information?

On Monday after a report came out wheat was plentiful in U.S. Then you see articles saying wheat price skyrocketed this week. (Well, after Monday, I guess). Now yesterday article comes out reporting wheat rust fungus. Wheat skyrockets.

So maybe Monday was a good day to buy wheat shares?

Here's an article on price manipulation, at the expense of the poor and hungry:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3533252.ece

Guess that is what happens when people make bets on food supplies.

I am one of the few and fortunate.

I can look down my dirt road and see wheat a plenty coming in very lush.

Can that change, sure, I can also slip and fall to my death on a wet floor at Aldi.

On most years, regardless of economic confusion I can rest very comfortable knowing my food comes before our wagons ever hit the grain elevators scale.

If I were an apartment dweller or lacked sufficient resources to plant even a basic garden in desperate times I would be somewhat worried. Of course I could still go get a 99 cent burger too.

As it is I am a bit concerned but life goes on as usual. I am planting a garden, mostly for fun.....however concern doesn't leave my mind for long. I have been watching trends for years and see events unfold in negative ways.

Has it always been so, perhaps.

You can call me paranoid but you will never call me hungry! : )

That's exactly why I posted my topic.....because it makes absolutely no sense anymore. We were watching BBC news on our PBS channel this evening when this subject came across the ticker....and I nearly fell off the couch!

It makes me believe a whole lot of what we read/see/hear is a bunch of hooey and we're being played for chumps. Either that or we're at the mercy of a bunch of lunatics that are playing games.

I think it's lunatics playing games, so I'm trying my best to need as little mercy as possible.

hintonlady~ I'm envious. I would love to grow my own wheat. Someday I might but for right now I can't. I know I don't need wheat, or rice for that matter, to survive. At this point it is looking like wheat might be placed on the luxury list. I suppose it all works out, I have a serious bread addiction that is starting to affect the rest of my life, like my thighs and butt :eek:

I just got lucky and married me a corn fed farm boy. Otherwise I would be grunting it out on a small spread like most. I count my blessings everyday.

It doesn't hurt that he can fix or build anything.........

I wasn't even a prepper when I met him but I gotta say I snagged up a keeper.

The rural mid west is full of fine catches. Had I know it when I was young I may have escaped the city much sooner. :)

Consider the press is poorly informed, or maybe even stupid.

If you want to buy a million bushels - no problem. Buy it in 50 lb sacks - sorry out of stock. It all depends upon asking the right question, which most of the press is absolutely incapable of doing.

I guess the real answer determines which side of the globe you are living on .... If you are in Africa or one of the other third world over-populated, under-fed countries with a corrupt gov't (more corrupt than ours), then your shortages of wheat, rice, good paying jobs are real.
Over here in North America ... we seem to have excesses and we keep the supply and demand food chain well oiled. Not only can you go to any store 24 hours a day and buy virtually anything you want, you can go to any fast food place or resturant and instantly acquire a fully cooked meal, as many times a day as you want. We don't feel the pain and suffering on the other side ... what we do get to see, feel and hear is the problems that are occuring, and the people that are saying that it will spill over onto us ..... the shortages of food stuffs. We also have to pay thru the nose for gas and other commodities because of the greed of speculation and future prices rising. Consequently, the media has done a fine job of telling us the panic and problems over there are coming here (ripple effect). In turn, we prep to stave off the long testing hard times we think are coming ...or so we are led to believe.

Is it all true ??? If I were to base it on the price of oil and gas, I would say yes. If I were to base it on the price of food stuffs, I would say ... maybe.
Again .... take into account where you are living. I seriously doubt that this country is going to starve like the hundreds of millions on the other side of the pond. We will see higher prices for everything, as their ripple effect will definitely affect our way of life.
We all live in a global economy, whether you live in Podunkville, USA or Chicago, Columbus or L.A. We'll all feel the global effect of anything that happens here or around the world. I don't think the sky will fall on us though.

There have been no food riots here yet, and they won't come. Are you gonna starve .... No ...are you gonna pay more for everything for a long time to come ...Yes. The best strategy in this economy is balance ... to have all that you need (not want) with extra money put away as a hedge against rising prices of day to day essentials. You know they are coming just by seeing all the price increases everywhere.
Balance is getting the best bang for your buck, spending wisely for both the short term and long term, and saving at the same time. (Balance is also knowledge) This balance is what helps to get rid of fear and panic of the unseen future. Balance is your crystal ball. Think thru where your money is going everyday and how you can cut and save to benefit you and your family.
Those that didn't or couldn't balance fell off the high wire .....
Ohio Rusty ><>

The following is from an email newsletter I just got:

WHEAT CROP FAILURES COULD BE TOTAL
April 24
On top of record-breaking rice prices and corn through
the roof on ethanol demand, wheat is now rusting in
the fields across Africa.
http://moneynews.com/money/archives/...00454.cfm?s=st

The alarming thing about this is that many years ago one of the
leading remote viewers saw this coming and said it would devastate
the wheat globally causing mass starvation. Here is a link to a clip
from the Art Bell show clip acknowledging the prediction.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...04882977854253

The high food prices are causing a shortage in them selves. I don't care how many bags of rice are on the shelf if you cann't pay the price the store frowns on you trying to leave with them. ( I do hear there are record drive aways at the local gas stations though)
Already there are groups having food and clothes give aways in our town to help those who are in need. This is besides regular food banks.
When you get down to it it no longer matters why the shortages are happening or whose causing them. Or if they are real or not.

Reply
 

Someone on another board with a lot more experience watching commodity markets than me says that the media always has the most to say about shortages immediately before they correct themselves. With about 6 weeks to go before the North American wheat harvest starts I'd say he's likely to be right about this one too.

Many of the "shortages" appearing in the last week have been a direct result of the big upswing in media chatter about food shortages.

This one says bumper wheat harvest:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7484920

So who DO you believe? :stars:

Ug99, unlike other Wheat Rust, wipes out whole crops, not just patches.



Ug99 has spread from Africa to Egypt to China, with some help from last year's hurricane in Saudi Arabia.

First time ever, in recorded history, that there was a hurricane of it's size over the Arabian peninsula. Practically engulfed the whole country.


Now, dust has migrated from China to California - according to scientists.



There are herbicides that fend off Ug99, but apparently is rather costly.


Now I'm wondering how much time this country has concerning a huge impact of Ug99. Possibly 3 years.

Does anyone ever stop to think that before Rhodesia became Zimbawa it was an exporter of food from Africa. That it could have nearly supported the whole continent on its food production.
As far as now I think you have a bunch of speculators running around trying every trick of the trade to make up for their cash losses in derivatives and a bunch of that other phony money schemes. They know people will keep shelling out for food. And most people aren't bright enough to not to go along with the panic.

Reply
 

Generally you're best to believe the people on the ground and ignore the media. Most media people wouldn't know wheat from potatoes in the field. Many government types don't either.

I'm in contact with farmers across Canada and the US, in Australia, UK, a few other places. With very few exceptions (parts of Oklahoma, for one), everybody's very happy with the state of their wheat crop. Looking at ours today and it looks great for this time of year. Plus wheat futures are down again this week, telling us the buyers aren't really looking for more wheat because they think there's going to be lots.

Things could change but that's the way it looks to me right now. We sold the majority of our 2008, 2009 and 2010 wheat crops in late January, about 4 days before the peak of wheat prices hit here. I'm VERY comfortable with that decision.

The wheat around here is just beautiful...I'm guessing unless we have a hailstorm or some other weather problem, it will be a bumper crop. But that still doesn't tell me how much wheat is in storage or available from previous crops.

I listen with attention to all the fuss going on, but I trust what is on my shelves.

I have not studied the subject in depth, but it is my impression that the world-wide demand is up, while the USA harvest last year was only so-so.

Increased price without increased supply will make the prices go up, of course, and those who have wheat will be angling for the best price. If you are not willing to pay the prices, you have no wheat.

As for THIS years harvest, isn't it about time for the harvest to begin in the pacific northwest? And, so far, the Kansas wheat is promising!

If the harvest is good across the nation it will, of course, fill all of the storage space we have. People who speak of having plenty of wheat might be looking at the wheat in the field as well as the wheat being harvested.

OP, your question about what sources to trust is a *great* one. I've struggled with that for years. My solution has been to read all the news sources and read websites like this to stay ahead of the worst. But I also keep in mind that folks on emergency prep sites are much more tuned into the worst, and it helps to try to keep my ears and mind open to evaluate other (sometimes more optimistic) voices.

The mass media are not particularly educated, and spokesmen for the economic establishment (the Fed etc) have a vested interest in making folks believe their line, not necessarily the truth. But there are smart, informed folks on either side of any issue and you'll come to recognize when someone isn't grinding their own personal axe. Find those voices and then you can make up your own mind.

Bottom line, you still have to choose for yourself.

I know when the wheat harvest comes in I'm going to put aside three or four hundred pounds of wheat, sealed for long term storage. Because no matter what, I don't see signs that food will be getting much plentiful and cheaper in the future. I bake bread, and it won't go to waste. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal recently said putting away home storage food was a good hedge against price inflation.

I'd say when the Wall Street Journal agrees with my favorite tin-foil-hattish online pals, there's an underlying fact there I should take to heart.

It isn't so much a question of the yields here in this country, as it is of world-wide supply and demand. Demand is up (higher population, reduced crops of some other foods such as rice -- those people have to eat something), prices are up (mostly due to the higher price of oil and nat. gas which is what most fertilizer is made from), and there are some crop problems (rust in Africa and the Middle East; drought in Australia). The combination of factors means that prices are going to continue to go up, and we need to continue to at least try to grow some of our own food! If food supplies increase and prices decrease, our vegetable gardens won't have cost us much more than a little time and effort, but if the opposite happens, then we may need the food from those gardens in order to free up some of our income to pay for gas for our cars, if nothing else.

In this case, being prepared for the worst isn't going to hurt anything if you are wrong; NOT being prepared could hurt badly if you are wrong.

Kathleen

Not even close! I think it's in July/August. I am seeing lots of fields coming up nicely though. The one's that were planted in corn last year in this area are now in wheat (or a wheat like grass - I can't tell exactly what yet).

Besides, it's still winter here. Mother Nature hasn't figured out that it's almost May and she's stuck in February mode. :shrug:

Supposed to be tons of snow up noth tomorrow night, from what I have heard.

I know lots of stuff should be in the ground there, a frost is a disaster.

You can't bet on anything when it comes to agriculture. It's a gambling game.

Right now we have a huge population surviving on something we have absolutely NO control over, that is a risky gamble.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose...............simple as that.

Considering that I've long heard the markets are manipulated by those with great wealth and connections(by others with connections and great wealth), and considering that all signs were pointing to an enormous run up in inflation and demand long before the media and government started admitting to it in small bits over the last year, it doesn't hurt to be prepared.

Whether or not things turn out for better or for worse, it still doesn't hurt to be prepared.

If you are, you need not worry about who is in the know or telling the truth, or not for their own gains.

I trust my gut much more than any media outlet, left, right, or indy. Following that gut instinct is another subject.

I had to laugh at the poster who mentioned many folks wouldn't know what wheat was.

True story. A couple of weeks ago I had ground some wheat and made crackers and graham crackers as an experiment. A city friend of mine came over for a visit and was asking about them on the table in their vaccuum canisters. So I filled her in. She looked confused and obviously had no idea what I was talking about, so I opened the bag of grain, pulled out a handful and put it on the table in front of her.

She looked like a chicken when you put your finger down in the ground in front of it's beak.

:rotfl:

She looked even more confused. At that point, after explaining the process of grinding wheat to turn it into flour to use in baking to make the cookies, crackers, bread, etc., I felt like it was hopeless and gave up.

She loved the graham crackers though.

:)

So it kinda comes full circle..... Plan ahead so you and yours don't do without. So does it really matter if their is a shortage or not?



OPPS, This is me not she......Stanb999

I'm going to keep living my life, "irregardless" of whether the world's supply of grain goes up or down.

If there is a shortage, and then none, I'll have enough grain stored to get us through to the next harvest (whether it be a grain harvest, or a nut/acorn harvest)... I'll be fat sassy and happy.

If there is no shortage, I'll keep buying grains, and rotating the stocks, and be none the worse for wear.

To a prepared person, it doesn't matter.

To an unprepared person, the shortage hurts, the non shortage doesn't... So, the worries over shortages take more interest from me.

When a major wheat producing nation fails (Australia) there has to be a shortage...

One more thought.... Even if there is a shortage, the one's with money will always have food. The food riots around the world aren't because theres no food... but that it's too expensive to afford.

Not really. The shortage only matters if it happens on YOUR property, or as Texican pointed out, if you have no money.

I'm just one of those that like to be prepared for anything no matter who says what. If i need anything it's here, if i don't need it, it's here any way.

If i was going to cross a desert and someone told me there was a gas station 50 miles out so there was no reason for filling up before i left, and someone else said there was no station out there, i'd gas up anyway, it couldn't hurt anything.

I believe you have the correct answer. I figure me and the Mrs. are the best judges of what we need and what we are willing to pay for it. I prefer not to live my life being blown about by every wind that passes. We've made our plans, set our timetables, now it's up to us to achive them.