Obama’s October Surprise: Bombing Iran

TNHermit · #1 10/09/12, 02:23 PM

This is political but you can see it could rile things up. This comes from a source that concentrates on the middle east.

There are several articles kinda spun together so look around if you go there.

Quote:

By Ted Belman

In Aug of 2012, The National Interest reported:

President Obama could bomb Iran in late October to try and ensure that it does not develop nuclear weapons. A devastating strike would create an upsurge of patriotism in America and fully neutralize Mitt Romney’s contention that Obama is a foreign-policy wimp. It could allow Obama to sweep to victory in November.

Today Debka Reported:
US sources: US, Israel plan October Surprise. Others: Israel can do it alone

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 9, 2012, 1:53 PM

Four facts deserve attention with regard to a potential attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The first is that the Iranian-Israeli war is already at hand. Iran launched it by sending an unmanned drone into Israeli air space Saturday, Oct. 6, breaking new ground in belligerence with a cyber attack.

Israel countered by stationing Patriot missile interceptor batteries in Haifa and other parts of its northern region.

That Tehran initiated hostilities with a cyber attack on Israel cannot be wiped from the record any more than its score: two points, Iran; zero, Israel, whose air defenses proved no match against a large, slow-moving and cumbersome aerial vehicle loaded with electronic equipment.

As many experts have pointed out, Patriots are not designed for intercepting aircraft, only missiles. Their deployment therefore aims at defending the country from potential Iranian or Hizballah missile strikes from Lebanon or Syria – depending partly on the state of the Syrian war.

And indeed, Hamas and Jihad Islami spokesmen, when they assumed shared responsibility for the 55 Palestinian missiles and mortars fired against Israel Monday morning, Oct. 8, said quite openly that the rules of Gaza warfare had changed: IDF attacks on terrorist targets in the Gaza Strip, however limited in scope, would draw forth reprisals not only from that Palestinian-ruled territory but from Lebanon, they said.

DEBKAfile: As of mid-September, under newly-signed military pacts, the strings of the two leading Palestinian terrorist militias in the Gaza Strip are being manipulated from Beirut by Iran and Hizballah. It is they who now set the rules and dictate the scope of Palestinian anti-Israel operations from Gaza.

The drone’s incursion was a separate Iranian initiative.

The other three points pertinent to the Iranian-Israel confrontation are:-

1. US intelligence recently warned President Barack Obama that Iran’s nuclear breakthrough point is much closer than formerly estimated, i.e. approximately 7 weeks off. In late November, therefore, Iran will enough 20 percent plus enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. American and Israeli intelligence see eye to eye on this estimate.

It flies, however, in the face of the assessments circulated in Israel by anti-attack factions who are now claiming that Iran has slowed the progress of its military nuclear program in order to divert much of its enriched uranium to civilian projects.
This claim is not only incorrect, but it is a valuable contribution to Tehran’s propaganda effort to prove that its program is entirely innocent and peaceful.

2. A US Congressional Research paper published internally on Sept. 28 asserts that Israel is capable of going it alone without the United States against Iran’s nuclear sites, including the Fordo underground enrichment facility.

This fact has been suppressed by the anti-attack camp, whose spokesmen have insisted that Israel lacks this capacity.

The experts commissioned by congress to determine the truth of the matter concluded: “… an attack on Esfahan, Natanz, and Arak might require deploying only 20% of Israel’s top-line fighters purchased from the United States. “…this yields an Israeli strike involving at least 100 aircraft. Most sources indicate that Israel has a total of “around 350 fighter jets.”

The US congressional research team adds that, although Israel received enough 7 KC-130 refueling planes from the US to cover the round trip to Iran and back, the Israeli Air Force has also secretly developed two more refueling options about which the US knows very little.

“Over the past two years, Israel Aerospace Industries-IAI bought up all the Boeing 707s coming on the international market and had them converted in IAI factories into KC-135 refueling planes,” says the report.

After the Congressional Research Center published these findings, David Rothkopf, who is close to US Democratic Party leaders, tested the ground with a report Monday, Oct. 8, in Foreign Policy, which said that the United States and Israel are considering the possibility of a joint “surgical strike” against Iran’s nuclear facilities as an “October surprise.”

He quoted a source said to be close to the discussions, which claimed that “a small-scale attack is currently viewed as the most likely military option by air, using bombers and supported by drones,” which Israel would not be able to carry out on its own.

What Rothkopf was saying is that President Obama has no more than 20 days to decide if and when to conduct this US-Israel attack on Iran.
His clock, say our sources, is ticking at the same speed as that of former Mossad chief Efraim Halevi who on August 1 predicted an attack on Iran within twelve weeks; and Tzahi Hanegbi, the former Knesset defense and foreign affairs committee chair and close confidant of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who said in mid-September that the next 50 days would be critical for Israel’s destiny.

Sept 19/12 The Israel Defense Forces on Wednesday morning launched a large-scale surprise exercise in the north of country,

Israpundit » Blog Archive » Obama’s October Surprise: Bombing Iran

TNHermit · #2 10/09/12, 02:24 PM

Indeed, according to a source close to the discussions, the action that participants currently see as most likely is a joint U.S.-Israeli surgical strike targeting Iranian enrichment facilities. The strike might take only “a couple of hours” in the best case and only would involve a “day or two” overall, the source said, and would be conducted by air, using primarily bombers and drone support.

Advocates for this approach argue that not only is it likely to be more politically palatable in the United States but, were it to be successful — meaning knocking out enrichment facilities, setting the Iranian nuclear program back many years, and doing so without civilian casualties — it would have regionwide benefits. One advocate asserts it would have a “transformative outcome: saving Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, reanimating the peace process, securing the Gulf, sending an unequivocal message to Russia and China, and assuring American ascendancy in the region for a decade to come.”

Israpundit

Lilbitof4 · #3 10/09/12, 05:06 PM

I keep thinking that we are going to start another war fairly soon. I saw that Isreal's prime minister (yes, I am avoiding spelling that name LOL) wants to move the elections in his country forward. That also makes me think we might be looking at some kind of US/Isreal collaborative strike.

I started thinking it when so many auxilliary govt. offices started buying ammo. Seems like you could draw the conclusion that the govt. might be expecting some civil unrest here in the states while even more of our military forces are tied up oversees.

That's tin foil hat though.

TNHermit · #4 10/09/12, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lilbitof4

I keep thinking that we are going to start another war fairly soon. I saw that Isreal's prime minister (yes, I am avoiding spelling that name LOL) wants to move the elections in his country forward. That also makes me think we might be looking at some kind of US/Isreal collaborative strike.

I started thinking it when so many auxilliary govt. offices started buying ammo. Seems like you could draw the conclusion that the govt. might be expecting some civil unrest here in the states while even more of our military forces are tied up oversees.

That's tin foil hat though.

I use to hate Tin. Not so much anymore watching what is going on.

mrsjez · #5 10/09/12, 05:49 PM

I think this is perfectly plausible and I would feel safe placing a hefty bet that this indeed does happen.

Wanderer0101 · #6 10/09/12, 05:59 PM

Debka always has interesting things to say but sometimes are not too reliable in their predictions. While I think bombing Iran runs counter to everything Obama believe I also believe there is nothing he won't do to get reelected.

TNHermit · #7 10/09/12, 06:01 PM

Donald Trump is putting the same thing out there

fishinshawn · #8 10/09/12, 06:08 PM

At first I was a bit leary of your source because of the spelling and grammar errors. Then I read something from a trusted source, that could be somewhat related to your article. I will copy and paste my intell report below:

According to a worldwide network of aircraft spotters and trackers, at least a dozen MC-130H, HC-130N, HC-130P and AC-130U military transport planes and gunships crossed the Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 13 heading eastbound. These aircraft are typically used for a variety of special tasks, including in close cooperation with special operations forces. The last reported stop for the aircraft was Souda Bay, Crete. It is unclear whether the aircraft have left Crete, but we are working on tracking them down.

A week and a half later, on Sept. 24, the same network of aircraft spotters noted 12 U.S. Marine Corps F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets arriving in two waves at Moron air base in Spain. It is not known where the squadron is heading, though it could be en route to Afghanistan to reinforce elements there. The Harrier squadron that suffered heavy losses in the Sept. 14 attack on Camp Bastion has already been replaced by another Harrier unit, so it is unlikely that the squadron's deployment is directly linked to that event. It is also possible that the F/A-18s are heading to the Gulf Cooperation Council region. A number of air superiority squadrons, including an F-22 Raptor squadron, have already deployed to the region. If that is the case, the squadron is intended simply as reinforcements or replacements for assets currently deployed there.

Also on Sept. 24, The New York Times published an article stating that Iraq and the United States were negotiating an agreement that could result in the return of small units of U.S. soldiers to Iraq on training missions. At the request of the Iraqi government, according to U.S. Gen. Robert Caslen, a unit of Army special operations soldiers was recently deployed to Iraq to advise on counterterrorism and to help with intelligence. It is possible that at least some of the MC-130 aircraft previously mentioned were delivering these special operations troops to Iraq.

Another report on Sept. 24, this one by the Le Figaro French-language newspaper, said some 100 French special operations troops had been deployed in the sub-Saharan region to counteract militants in northern Mali. Le Figaro also reported that maritime patrol aircraft that can be used to collect intelligence will be deployed to the region and that commandos of the French navy will reinforce the French special operations troops.

TNHermit · #9 10/09/12, 06:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fishinshawn

At first I was a bit leary of your source because of the spelling and grammar errors. Then I read something from a trusted source, that could be somewhat related to your article. I will copy and paste my intell report below:

According to a worldwide network of aircraft spotters and trackers, at least a dozen MC-130H, HC-130N, HC-130P and AC-130U military transport planes and gunships crossed the Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 13 heading eastbound. These aircraft are typically used for a variety of special tasks, including in close cooperation with special operations forces. The last reported stop for the aircraft was Souda Bay, Crete. It is unclear whether the aircraft have left Crete, but we are working on tracking them down.

A week and a half later, on Sept. 24, the same network of aircraft spotters noted 12 U.S. Marine Corps F/A-18 Hornet fighter jets arriving in two waves at Moron air base in Spain. It is not known where the squadron is heading, though it could be en route to Afghanistan to reinforce elements there. The Harrier squadron that suffered heavy losses in the Sept. 14 attack on Camp Bastion has already been replaced by another Harrier unit, so it is unlikely that the squadron's deployment is directly linked to that event. It is also possible that the F/A-18s are heading to the Gulf Cooperation Council region. A number of air superiority squadrons, including an F-22 Raptor squadron, have already deployed to the region. If that is the case, the squadron is intended simply as reinforcements or replacements for assets currently deployed there.

Also on Sept. 24, The New York Times published an article stating that Iraq and the United States were negotiating an agreement that could result in the return of small units of U.S. soldiers to Iraq on training missions. At the request of the Iraqi government, according to U.S. Gen. Robert Caslen, a unit of Army special operations soldiers was recently deployed to Iraq to advise on counterterrorism and to help with intelligence. It is possible that at least some of the MC-130 aircraft previously mentioned were delivering these special operations troops to Iraq.

Another report on Sept. 24, this one by the Le Figaro French-language newspaper, said some 100 French special operations troops had been deployed in the sub-Saharan region to counteract militants in northern Mali. Le Figaro also reported that maritime patrol aircraft that can be used to collect intelligence will be deployed to the region and that commandos of the French navy will reinforce the French special operations troops.

One thing I will add /clarify. We are still in Iraq. There are still troops mostly forgotten that are there. SO there is a lot of show to some of this. the reason I know is one of the TN ladies there called into a local show this weekend and talked about it. She didn't give numbers but its more than a half dozen

Also I usually have several sources. I usually use the one that is most easily understood.

Old Vet · #10 10/09/12, 08:18 PM

There is one problem with that. The Prime Minister of Israel had stated that it should be next spring before you bomb them.

TNHermit · #11 10/09/12, 09:48 PM

From Twitter

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump

Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.

Bearfootfarm · #12 10/09/12, 10:41 PM

Quote:

when so many auxilliary govt. offices started buying ammo

They have been buying it for years.
It just made headlines this time because it was mostly done on one large order iinstead of many small ones

defenestrate · #13 10/09/12, 11:21 PM

I wouldn't be shocked about the timeframe but I have figured on a number of October surprises, and this is but one. DEBKA is good on finding intelligence but their predictions are made by people, and are just as flawed.

Bearfootfarm · #14 10/10/12, 01:53 AM

Quote:

I will copy and paste my intell report below

It's even nicer when you post the link too

Stratfor

NickyBlade · #15 10/10/12, 07:44 AM

There are military units not slated to deploy that are still being sent to deployment training. If you'd have asked me a couple weeks ago, I would have said "Stupid waste of tax payer dollars." But, more likely there are plans in place that we're simply not aware of.

EasyDay · #16 10/10/12, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lilbitof4

I started thinking it when so many auxilliary govt. offices started buying ammo. Seems like you could draw the conclusion that the govt. might be expecting some civil unrest here in the states while even more of our military forces are tied up oversees.

The expectations of civil unrest could be gleaned from the number of Obozo supporters who say they will riot if he doesn't get re-elected. *shrug*
The "tolerant" crowd has become uncomfortably INtolerant of anything anti-Obama.

7thswan · #17 10/10/12, 08:33 AM

I have been reading the same as far as Iran.

TNHermit · #18 10/10/12, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EasyDay

The expectations of civil unrest could be gleaned from the number of Obozo supporters who say they will riot if he doesn't get re-elected. *shrug*
The "tolerant" crowd has become uncomfortably INtolerant of anything anti-Obama.

Where you been Girl????

Your gonna stick around and post right!!??

EasyDay · #19 10/10/12, 09:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNHermit

Where you been Girl????

Your gonna stick around and post right!!??

I took a hiatus from technology for awhile! UGH!
I'll try to stick around a little better, but the cool weather hit FAST, so it's time to start winterizing the farm.

Thanks for missing me!

stanb999 · #20 10/10/12, 05:58 PM

Iraq has decided we aren't a worth while friend.. They have new ones.

Iran
Iran, Iraq sign defense cooperation deal - Tehran Times

Russia
Iraq buys $4.2 billion in weapons from Russia | GlobalPost

So we won't be attacking from there.