Shrinking U.S. cattle herd smallest in 60 years

haypoint · #1 01/26/12, 10:11 PM

Shrinking U.S. cattle herd smallest in 60 years

K.T. Arasu and Meredith Davis, Reuters

Drovers/CattleNetwork.com

January 25, 2012

Chicago - A devastating drought, record feed costs and intensifying competition with cash crops for land are accelerating a five-year decline in the U.S. cattle herd, which is forecast to be the smallest in six decades as of Jan. 1.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's bi-annual cattle inventory report on Friday, expected to show a 1.4 percent drop in cattle numbers from a year ago, may give cattle futures, already record high, another boost; drive meat prices to new highs and roil packers like Tyson Foods Inc.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the data to show the U.S. cattle herd at 91.26 million head, the smallest since 1952 and down from 92.58 million a year earlier.

sammyd · #2 01/27/12, 09:32 AM

cattle prices are making it easy to sell em too....

janij · #3 01/27/12, 09:56 AM

What I find so interesting about this problem is that most American's have no idea and don't seem to care.

Patrick · #4 01/27/12, 10:06 AM

Janij, that's exactly why we have things like NAIS, and why people like Joel Salatin are now considered outlaws by our twisted government. It's why people can't even keep three hens, a goat or a pig on a suburban lot to supply their family.

haypoint · #5 01/27/12, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Patrick

Janij, that's exactly why we have things like NAIS, and why people like Joel Salatin are now considered outlaws by our twisted government. It's why people can't even keep three hens, a goat or a pig on a suburban lot to supply their family.

Be careful, Patrick, that's an awful big jump you are taking.

unregistered168043 · #6 01/27/12, 11:31 AM

How do they know? Nobody knows how many cattle I have, or how many my neighbors have. It's all speculation.

RedDirt Cowgirl · #7 01/27/12, 11:46 AM

Here's a link to a local news piece about trying to break through regulations to market beef locally - just about impossible, and frankly, I still don't see how this program is going to do the trick for ranchers: http://www.calaverasenterprise.com/n...9bb2963f4.html

Gone are the days when one could take a few head to market (in a small truck) and get a reasonable price, now it's delivery by the trailer load of a block of same-everything to feed the industrial maw that spews back mad cow mania & that soylent green they call hamburger. The $8 a pound grass-fed hamburger in my supermarket comes from Argentina.

haypoint · #8 01/27/12, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darntootin

How do they know? Nobody knows how many cattle I have, or how many my neighbors have. It's all speculation.

I think the government flies over, counts the ears and divides by two.

myersfarm · #9 01/27/12, 12:08 PM

GOOGLE EARTH lets you get close to counting them but the GOV. can zoom in closer so I bet they can count the flies on there BACKS

Allen W · #10 01/27/12, 01:00 PM

We have been headed down this road for the last ten years or so.

haypoint · #11 01/27/12, 01:01 PM

The opening post was about how the population of cattle in this country is going down. The reasons are clear, more money raising crops. Then someone made the comment about how most folks are unaware of this change. But to take the general public’s disinterest in cattle numbers and jump over to NAIS (like that hasn’t been hashed enough) and some fringe book-writing kook is a long ways off topic. Then to extend the tirade to include Suburban Zoning issues drags us further away from the topic and perhaps reality.
I read the link you posted and got a completely different take on it. The rules and regulations have been the same for many years. The article details how people process their own beef, a guy comes to the farm and then the actual cutting and wrapping is done at a butcher shop. That meat has had a “not for resale” stamp on it for decades, perhaps longer. These folks want to market meat retail and seem to understand that to create a facility that has stainless steel tables, proper sanitary processing methods takes $3 million. Should the government give them a pass to process meat, sell it on the open market, without insuring that they follow the same standards as everyone else?
If you want to sell meat, it has to be processed at a higher standard. That costs a lot to build.
Gone are the days when you could buy penny candy at the grocery store down the block. The world has changed.
We live in a country that promotes the free market. It isn’t government regulation that puts grass fed Argentina on your Supermarket’s meat display. Quite the opposite.
I don’t know the beef marketing methods in your area (I might wonder if you do either), but most of the beef sold in Michigan is either through a contract or they are loaded into a trailer and taken to one of the many Livestock Auctions. A few come in a semi-trailer, but most arrive in a trailer pulled by a pickup truck.
In a free market, people can take their old worn out Holstein cows to an auction n and those cows often go to a slaughterhouse that processes much of it into hamburger. That meat is then used in processed foods like the Spaghetti sauce with meat, canned stews and chili and Frozen meals like Lean Cuisine. As an earlier post stated, most folks do not care. Actually it is beyond indifference they do not want to know and do not want to be told.
Maybe that county is having trouble because they have 50,000 people and 5,000 farms. When you look at the average value of a house in Calaveras it over a quarter million, a $3 million investment on an inspected compliant beef processing plant doesn’t seem too costly.
Soilent Green, har har.

haypoint · #12 01/27/12, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by myersfarm

GOOGLE EARTH lets you get close to counting them but the GOV. can zoom in closer so I bet they can count the flies on there BACKS

Maybe they count the flies and divide by 12?

MO_cows · #13 01/27/12, 05:37 PM

Yep, there is a lot of side issues getting drug into this thread. This short supply isn't going away any time soon. Even if every farmer/rancher in America decided to keep all their heifers and expand their operation to try and capitalize on these good prices for calves, that would actually take meat out of the supply chain because the lesser quality heifers are staying in the herd instead of going to the feedlot. And it's at least a 3-year cycle from keeping a heifer to eating her first calf, so the level of production can't ramp up nearly as fast as pork and chicken. High cattle prices plus high corn prices, retail prices could really take a jump! I'm very glad we have a steer of our own coming along to harvest soon, and I sure wish I had excess steers to take to market!

piglady · #14 01/27/12, 08:11 PM

Prices took a dive here due to the drought. No one can afford to feed them until the rains come, if the rains come before it is too late. If you have the land and grass, now would be a good time to get a calf to raise for the freezer. Prices have to go up due to supply and demand unless imports make up the difference.

janij · #15 01/27/12, 08:21 PM

I watched so many farmers around here sell EVERY COW they had. The man with all the land around me totally sold out because of the drought. The way the system works, well everyone has a complaint and I have quiet a few. I just fear that if the masses keep their heads in the sand things could get interesting to say the least. And this year all I am hoping for is bull calves.

CCCC · #16 01/28/12, 09:29 AM

Attended the Range Cow Beef Symposium in Gering, NE a few months back and one of the analyst said that it would take around 6 years before we see an increase in numbers. He also stated that he believed Beef would become the caviar of meats, and eventually all cattle would be sold on the grid to ensure quality of product. In looking at his charts chicken and pork consumption is on the rise and will continue to grow, mostly due to price.

The packers have been screaming and whining here lately too that they are not making any profit on the beef they are selling so something is going to have to give. There has even been talk that one of the major packers could shut their doors.