What is driving beef prices

[sugarbush]

I have been watching the auctions for about a year now and they are holding steady at 1.15-1.25 per lb on the hoof for everything going through. I would like to know where we are exporting them to, because I don't think we are paying for it in the stores and I am sure that domestic demand is not that high.

[agmantoo]

I sell feeder calves therefore I remain interested in the price projections. Last years drought in the central part of the US and the drought this year in the southeast caused a lot of producers to not hold back heifers and/or to sell older brood stock and the inventory of breeding stock has not increased and the demand for beef has been constant. This is creating a demand for feed lot calves and that keeps the prices up.

[Ken Scharabok]

If you are watching the cattle auction on RFD TV I have no idea who is paying those prices. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY high for this area. Took in six calves to Dickson, TN. One B&W bull went for $.98 lb. Other solid black five went for $1.05 - $1.07.

[sugarbush]

No.... I am watching the real stock sales http://www.dvauction.com/
they internet broadcast from all of the major stock yards in the country.

[tinknal]

At some point or another the popularity of grass fed beef may affect the market. For every grass fed critter to hit the market you lose 300 to 400 lbs per head.

[Sprout]

Price of grain, if the input is more expensive the end product will be. Prices for dairy cattle out here are at record highs so we're having alot of dairies selling thier entire stock and goint out of the buisness because of the increasing cost of feed.

[sugarbush]

Grain is pretty cheap around here. I was hauling corn last winter to beef farms in the area at 2.00 per bushel........thats about 70 lbs of corn. most of what comes out of this area is started calves..... I guess they may have a grain bill over the winter, but these calves are grass fed most of the year until they are sold. Maybe regonal prices are passing across the board..... if so local farmers are making out well in this area.

[Stephen in SOKY]

Yes, but right now that same 56 lb bushel of shelled corn is $3.80. Better than it was in May, but still quite high.

[sugarbush]

If they are buying them at 1.15 lb and selling at 1.15 lb they are not making anything off of them except the weight gained...... If they buy 1 heifer at 400 lbs at 1.15 lb.
- 460.00
first year they feed her, breed her and make nothing off her.
second year she calves, breed her back, make nothing off her.
third year she calves again, first calf is sold as a feeder and they break even on the price of the cow less trucking, feed and vet bills.
forth year she calves again, second calf is sold as feeder and they are finally up 460.00 less any feed and vet bills.
fifth year same deal, up 920.00 less feed and vet bills.
sixth year same deal, up 1380.00 less feed and vet bills.
seventh year she fails to breed back, fails to breed back again. sold as slaughter cow .30 lb x 1000lb = 300.00 last years calf retained as replacement.
total profit over 7 years =
1680.00
conservitively speaking we can say 50.00 per year to feed her. including diesel and wear and tear on farm equipment.
vet 50.00 per year.
trucking to and from stockyards 50.00
1680-750= 930.00 / 7 years
= 132.00 per year /12 months
= 11.00 per month


x 200 cows= 2200 per month
less 1500 morgage on farm
less 500 lease on crop land and extra grazing land.
less what ever loan payments on farm equipment, fencing etc.

[JulieLou42]

Here's ours from 2 weeks ago:

http://cottonwoodlivestock.com/

[bumpus]

I read not to many year back in Progressive Farmer that the profit on a calf after all expenses was about 50-60 dollars a head sold.

Buy 10 heifers and bread them all, and they all have calves, but one dies after 4 months.
You went in the hole that year.

If they all have calves the next year and they all sell you might break even.

Keep feeding those cows and hope the bottom does not fall out of the market.

People do not know what it cost for all around care.


I have read where rancher raise them put them in fee lots to try to make more money and then sell them to the meat packers and if the grade choice the com out with 3 to 10 dollars profit if all goes well after expenses.

The make big money and pay out big money and when they are done they have sad looking pocket change.


bumpus
.

[sammyd]

I haven't seen dairy farmers getting out. Milk is close to record highs.
Dairy cattle are worth big money.
Feeder calves have dropped around here you can pick em up 50-150 bucks.
I don't think there are as many fat cattle being sold due to the corn prices...could be wrong on that but I know folks who aren't fattening like they used to when you could get a ton for 100 bucks. Cheapest I've found lately is 140/ton for whole shell corn.

[tinknal]

Originally Posted by sammyd

I haven't seen dairy farmers getting out. Milk is close to record highs.
Dairy cattle are worth big money.
Feeder calves have dropped around here you can pick em up 50-150 bucks.
I don't think there are as many fat cattle being sold due to the corn prices...could be wrong on that but I know folks who aren't fattening like they used to when you could get a ton for 100 bucks. Cheapest I've found lately is 140/ton for whole shell corn.

Go to Kansas, you will see millions of cattle being fattened for market. Most fat cattle only get a heavy grain diet for 60-90 days.

[Jim S.]

Originally Posted by Ken Scharabok

If you are watching the cattle auction on RFD TV I have no idea who is paying those prices. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY high for this area. Took in six calves to Dickson, TN. One B&W bull went for $.98 lb. Other solid black five went for $1.05 - $1.07.

Ken, when I had cattle, Southeastern cattle were always discounted. Too much ear, and back then there was too much brown hair. (To which we always said, "You don't eat the hair!") We've done a lot about the brown hair since I quit, but the ear still gives us trouble. Brahman influence does make for more sun-hardy cows, but Western feedlots are against them. The last knock I always heard against SE cattle was that they were not preconditioned. Well, last I checked it still doesn't pay to precondition, unless you run them through a special sale.

I got out of my cow-calf operation as part of an extreme life change, but I wish I had cattle now. I know there are lots of experts out there saying this cycle has no forseeable end...but then, at the bottom of the last cycle I've gotten 33 cents a pound for a crop of steers. For every high, there must follow a low. The only question is when.