Forecasting Winter
 

I didn't want to hijack the thick apple peel thread but was wondering who uses natural signs to forecast weather... particularly winter.

Everything I've seen says it's going to be a cold one... thick peels on apples, onions and potatoes... squirrels working overtime to gather acorns and nuts... wooly worms have very narrow stripe or are all black and my horses are already getting an extra thick winter coat.

There were also a lot of foggy mornings in August... the number of these equals the number of snowstorms for the winter.

I don't know what y'all believe but I've kept a weather diary for years and found that these methods are as or more accurate than the "professional" meteorologists.

I live in Minnesota and it is currently snowing.
:facepalm:

So very sorry. It just seems too soon.

It is early. We just finished putting up hay and have been working on putting up more wood for the winter. Plus some needed repairs. Summer was short and went too fast this year for farmers.

I use an outdoor thermometer, a calendar , and Intellicast.

geo

Last year i had heard about ant hills. If they are "tall" then that means a lot of snow had about 20 inches this yr. Seemed tall to me from the ones i saw around the building. They seem tall again this year.

I need to go see what the beavers say. last year they were dead on. We're about to be nailed with snow tonight. This is the 3 rd earliest we have ever had.

I love winter- I know I am in the minority- but I can't wait to be snowed in

I forecast that we'll have a winter again this year. Some forecasters will get it right, some wrong, but none will be fired either way

I love hearing about the ways to predict winter weather. please post more info yall! :)

btw, I don't mind the cold, although I function better in the heat if I have to pick one of the two. what drives me bonkers about the winter is when the wind and freezing rain, etc are just terrible, but they say it's not bad enough to cancel school. if school doesn't cancel NOTHING around here gets cancelled, and it's so frustrating to drive my kids around late in the dark after a school day in terrible weather conditions just to they don't miss something. sometimes we just don't go cause it's not worth it, but I hate the example it sets for good judgement. just because it's not horrible enough to cancel school during daylight hours, doesn't mean it is safe to go out to their afterschool/evening activities in the dark. but, by golly, no one seems to use their brains on this. it's flat out -- "we only cancel if school cancels for the day"...so frustrating.

I've got a big pumpkin sitting on the back patio. If it's wet it's rain, icy it's frost, white it's snow, yellow it's the neighbor's dog again. He's one of them little yapping mop heads that stands on his front feet and whizzes up in the air. Just so cute. :facepalm:

What will a beaver do?

Early on I was seeing a few wooley bears with broad brown bands now we are seeing mainly black ones in large numbers. DH has seen a few blond ones he says but I have no idea what that signifies as far as weather omens mean.

With last winter in mind, we are laying in wood and stocking the pantry in case we get snowed in which is a given where we live in the winter. I found that there are two things we can depend on where we live. To get mired in in the summer after a heavy rain and snowed/iced in in the winter.

Yuppers - black wooly bears here this year, too. Never seen that before. Had a cool, short summer also.

Doomsday friend says we're in the beginnings of a small ice age. :D

There was another thread a few weeks ago. Someone posted a link that said the blonde or white wooly bears mean a blizzard. :eek:

It got down to 40 here last night, after being in the 90s all this past week. They were predicting the upper 50s, they missed that by quite a bit, lol.

I split six persimmon seeds today, although it's still a little early. I got four knives and two spoons, no forks. In case anyone doesn't know, forks mean a mild winter, spoons mean a lot of snow, and knives mean a lot of ice. We always get ice, I sure hope we don't get more than usual!

I don't worry about upcoming winters. I just try to prepare for the worst and if it doesn't happen, ok, it if is bad, then it is.

I find the endless chitter/chatter about weather senseless, I mean, what good does it do?

We can't change it, so prepare for the worst cold, snowy, windy weather. Prepare for your electricity to be off for an extended period of time.

If you think the weather is too bad to drive in, then don't. I made my children stay home from activities because the driving was hazardous. It didn't scar them for life.

I live in NY, zone 5.

1- horse has not started her winter coat
2- no geese flying south yet
3- hummers still here
4- goats just coming in heat, a month later than usual
5- having warm nights in 50's
6- no frost yet
7- tomatoes still in the garden
8- trees still hanging on their leaves

.....................................is mother nature speaking?

What good does it do??? For starters, it's a universal social ice breaker between friends and strangers and enemies alike. It's common ground, something shared, something that everyone can relate to. It brings people together in compassion, understanding and sympathy. It's something that people can compare notes on and give good advice about to other people who may be unprepared and unaware of what is the best way to prepare for the worst.

Chitter chatter about the weather is the very oldest, longest on-going conversation between all people in the world and it will never get too old and out of style. If you don't like it you don't have to join in on the chatter but don't knock other people for talking about the weather or get sarcastic about the weather not scarring people for life. Some people have lost everything and been scarred for life for not having been informed and prepared for the worst.

We live in NW Georgia and about a week ago I found a white wooley. I have never heard of them until about two weeks prior.
I enjoy wondering what the winter will do. I love being home when it snows, hate to be on the roads as we are not prepared in this area for it.

There is plenty of folklore about weather and natural signs. Beavers will build thicker houses before hard winters and here in the PNW the Salmon and Steelhead will grow larger more robust eggs when it is going to be a wet winter and smaller more plentiful ones when there is going to be a dry winter. The geese still haven't shown up here yet and it is only two weeks until the season starts. I am predicting a nice long Indian summer then a devastatingly sever and wet winter here.

I find it senseless that some people have the apparently irresistible need to post on a subject just to complain or disagree or put other people down instead of just closing the thread and moving on to something they do like or agree with.

Wouldn't this world be a sad, boring place if everyone thought, felt and acted exactly alike? We'd never have a reason to discuss anything because we'd all already be thinking it. We could just all be little automatons going about doing our work and never having any thoughts or emotions at all.

Not for me, thanks! I'll continue to discuss "senseless" things as long as it brings me joy or forms a connection to other people. I will also continue to allow others the freedom to discuss anything they feel like without my criticism, whether I agree with it or not. That's what makes us human and individuals. :)

:thumb::thumb::buds:

Agreed! I LOVE LOVE LOVE talking about upcoming seasons and hearing predictions and peoples ways of 'knowing' what kind of season it will be!

It is good light hearted talking chit chatting- I ammm so glad I am NOT the person who thinks that I am far too important to deal with folklore or what someone's grandparents taught them is useless to listen to....

Geese left here a couple weeks ago. Left early in the morning yesterday to go shopping. It was hard to see the road with all the snow coming down. It didn't stick and it didn't kill the tomato plants. Just weird.

I already know this winter is going to be mild. How?

I've had my backhoe loader, for 3 winters now, the first two, barely needing snow moving at all. Year two was one of the mildest winters in decades.

Last winter (anyone remember it? :rolleyes:) it had sprung a Hydraulic leak I could not even get to the barn, through the 3 month old snowdrift, to repair, let alone work in freezing conditions on something I knew little about.

Well, the leak is fixed, it's serviced, gassed up, ready to go.

I therefore, will not be needing it. :)

Isn't that the truth plow!!!
With the beavers if each little family has their own den and its not too far out of the water it will be a mild winter. If for instance last year, they all come together and build an enormous house an it's many fee out of the water it will be a hard cold winter.

I read about fog in august. and, we definitely had several mornings of it here in august and September. I wish I'd kept a tally of it now to compare to how many snowfalls we get :)

I don't think people put as much stock into predicting weather and seasons as they once did because there's a big expectation to just keep on keeping on 12 months a year.

I guess that's what gets me frustrated sometimes about toting my kids around when the weather/roads seem less than ideal. I really try and plan ahead to get certain things done at certain times of the year. work chores, and fun stuff, just cause they seem to fit nicely into considering the seasons. even simple stuff like, "no kids, save those puzzles for winter when it's dark early and too cold, get out and climb the trees now while you can" type of thing.

my husband has to get to work 365. I get more flexibility cause I homeschool the kids.

we just got our new (to us) barn rehabbed quite a bit. even got kidding/sick animal stalls and electrical run out there. of course, we're not actually expecting any kids this winter. best set up we've ever had, but funny how we probably won't need it this year :) did not get my new laundry line done yet. so I figure if that doesn't get done, clearly our dryer will break this winter. :happy2:

anybody know any old ways to figure out exactly when a storm is coming or how big/type it will be? I know sometimes I can feel the rainstorms here the day they're coming. we'll feel the heat/humidity just build all day like a wave, then it passes and the rain comes. we also watch for the leaves to turn over on the trees. that does seem to correlate with the rain coming many times.

There's something about the patterns of the clouds, types of clouds, etc. There's definitely an art to it, and it's one of those things I've got on my list to learn.

If you're "lucky" and have arthritis? That's a great way to know when fronts are coming in. From October through March, I'm a great weather predictor. ;)

My trees still haven't turned. I keep telling the stupid things that they'd best know what they're doing because if they don't do it and die I'm going to be might mad at them.

I have been prepping more than ever. I never want to deal with the birds like I did last year. The water carrying, the snow filled barn, the frost bite. I'm prepping this year!

This is really interesting because I am in the middle of the country, zone 7b and I am the opposite from you on a lot of these. My animals have started their winter coats, I have seen geese migrating through in the last week, goats came into heat a whole month early, we had our first 40 degree night already, the trees are turning early. I have read in the Almanac that the center of the country and the south are supposed to have another bad winter.

I have a very strong felling it is going to be cold! VERY COLD!.... and I live in Texas :)

I actually think this year might actually be a mild one compared to last year. A lot of meteorologist are saying this year is likely to be an el nino and so far a lot of the weather in the US has followed along with a typical el nino year particularly lack of hurricanes on the atlantic coast and wetter than usual weather in the western US.

I know Cali is still hurting for rain but seems like Wa, Or, and Az are on the national news daily for one part or another flooding recently.

Bring on the mild weather. Don't get me wrong I still like snow and colder temps but when the weather gets down in the single digits everything is always harder to start and things start breaking. Plain and simple machinery doesn't like that cold of weather.

I live in NY zone 5 also, we are very similar.
Differences,
1 No horse
2 Very few geese flying south
3 hummers left very late this year for my area.
5 a few cooler nights, but also no frost yet, and we still have a ton of leaves, the men are not going to like that for hunting season if they are still on the trees.
I have also seen a few wooly caterpillars, not all black. But both ends are black but much more brown in the middle.
Like everyone else, we will see!

Used to live in S FL. Old timers would see a flock of "Curlews" flying by and one would say, "bad weather coming, the curlews are flying". Then at some different time and place, another old timer would say, "good weather coming, the curlews are flying".

ETA.....I should say that I do think animals are indicators of weather. I just have not figured out to interpret them.

The EU weather maps seem to be (more) right

Geese flew by aweek ago. Lots and lots. They usually stay a few day at a very large pond down the road but not this year so far.

I have seen 2 white/cream woolie bear caterpillars. lots of acorns. Cats all want in. 4 wheel drive died. thats a sure sign! And cant find any of the window plastic that I stored last year and cant find it in the stores.

Hawgsquatch I was in love with you until you let your deviation skills out!

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JUST how many foggy morning was that?
I watch the color of the deer, the lighter the color of fur the more snow we have. I really need to write a study up and submit it to our government maybe I could get like 10 or 12 million dollars in grants to sit on my porch and note color.