Propane

TRAILRIDER · #**161** 02/04/14, 04:32 PM

My propane company won't sell to people using it for back up heat, or to people who don't rent tanks from them. They only have enough for the regular customers. And they are limiting that to 1/2 capacity of the tank you have. I do not want to be in this predicament next year.

VERN in IL · #**162** 02/04/14, 05:10 PM

Quote:

“ebb and flow of weather outlooks” prompting natural gas to charge back above $5 “as below-normal conditions blanket key regions such as the Midwest and Northeast through mid-Feb.”
“Add to this the prospect of a(nother) near-record withdrawal from storage on Thursday, and we are seeing the darker side of natural gas once more,” he said in a daily email.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its supply data, covering the week ended Jan. 31, on the heating fuel Thursday. Citi Futures forecasts a decline of 258 billion cubic feet.
The market last saw a record weekly supply decline of 287 billion cubic feet for the week ended Jan. 10, which included the week of the Polar Vortex.
A major winter storm with heavy snow, ice and a wintry mix was set to hit the U.S. from the southern and central Plains to the Midwest and Northeast this week, impacting more than two dozen states, according to AccuWeather.com . The severely cold weather in January has already resulted in record demand for natural gas, according to Bentek Energy, a unit of Platts.
The March natural-gas contract is “signaling very low storage expectations at the end of the season, and it’s starting to pull up the April contract which would reflect a tighter-than-expected market in April and May,”

Propane pinch prompts Missouri, Kansas, other state investigations ...
The rise in propane/natural gas prices is due to demand running consistently FAR above normal, thus pulling inventory down to HALF of normal. Since the prices pretty much doubled, I doubt these politicians that are crying "price fixing" are going to get anywhere. Propane is priced right, supply/demand economics.

light rain · #**163** 02/04/14, 05:16 PM

I'm calling companies to see what their lp prices are, once a week. A company that is not our own will sell at $3.999 gal. Our own company that we have used over 5 years is $4.209 gal. I have only a little while longer to make a decision on where will purchase propane. I don't want to run out because of the discomfort factor and the extra charges a company will charge for a safety check and re-light. But if prices are going to drop in a week I don't want to be too hasty. It really is like playing poker...
And a lot of the posters are correct in saying unless you are a regular customer some suppliers say "no deal". Well this winter will certainly be one I won't forget... And maybe that is a GOOD thing. So. WI -7 last night

VERN in IL · #**164** 02/05/14, 05:33 PM

Quote:

The Farmers’ Almanac is using words like “piercing cold,” “bitterly cold” and “biting cold” to describe the upcoming winter.
The 197-year-old publication predicts a winter storm will hit the Northeast around the time the Super Bowl is played at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands in New Jersey. It also predicts a colder-than-normal winter for two-thirds of the country and heavy snowfall in the Midwest, Great Lakes and New England.
“We’re using a very strong four-letter word to describe this winter, which is C-O-L-D. It’s going to be very cold,” said Sandi Duncan, managing editor.

Yep, they were right!

Quote:

There are worries that the very low activity during the current cycle, Cycle 24, could lead to decades of cold weather due to the knock on effect going into Cycle 25.

Sunspots need a minimum amount of magnetic energy in order to form in the first place. The Gauss laws of physics determine the levels at which sunspots form, and this is acknowledged to be 1500 Gauss. Each solar cycle is affected by the length and strength of the one before it.

Cycle 24 has been long and weak, indicating from past records that Cycle 25 could be even longer and even weaker than this one.

The worry with that is that the historical record shows that long weak sunspot cycles lead to much colder weather heading towards the cycle minimum. In this case the next 11 years, and then for a decade or so after the end of the cycle.

Data from Cycle 24 has indicated to scientists that Cycle 25 may be so weak that few, if any sunspots form. This could give us 30-40 years of colder weather.

GrannyG · #**165** 02/05/14, 05:44 PM

My ninety five year old mother lives alone, homebound, out in AZ.....the gas company did not check her tank, she ran out of butane...they had not checked it in months....charged her $175 for an emergency butane call...put 400 gallons in the tank....she got the bill for the butane today..... $2, 213.75 .....and she lives on a small social security check and is so careful as it is......makes me want to scream...I wonder how people with greenhouses are managing their butane bills, and small farms across the country.....we are really going downhill fast......

MO_cows · #**166** 02/05/14, 06:07 PM

Called and checked on propane price today, it was $3.87. Down from 5$ about 10 days ago. The really interesting thing, they ask your name and look up your account before giving the price. Not a good way to do business. I think we are changing propane companies after this winter.

light rain · #**167** 02/05/14, 08:12 PM

GrannyG, Unless your Mom is on a keep fill, it is her or a family member's responsibility to keep a check on the fill amt. Is it too difficult for your Mom to check on it? Could you arrange for someone else to check it every 2 weeks? I agree the prices are terrible. I am at 36% in WI and I need to check weekly. If she was on a keep fill I thought it was the company's fault and they would have to absorb any extra charges other the price per gallon. I give her credit for being independent!

Wanda · #**168** 02/06/14, 05:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MO_cows

Called and checked on propane price today, it was $3.87. Down from 5$ about 10 days ago. The really interesting thing, they ask your name and look up your account before giving the price. Not a good way to do business. I think we are changing propane companies after this winter.

I can see there point. I would not want to end up on a news story or part of a lawsuit over price gouging. There prices will have to swing with the prices they are paying to restock some inventory. They have little means to control that price but it looks bad to the people outside of the business. There are a lot of tire kickers that are wanting to find lower prices to bargain with. Most company s are not taking on new customers so there prices are only relevant to there customers.

jlxian · #**169** 02/06/14, 08:52 AM

Vern in IL --- where did this little blurb come from? You're killing me!

"There are worries that the very low activity during the current cycle, Cycle 24, could lead to decades of cold weather due to the knock on effect going into Cycle 25.

Sunspots need a minimum amount of magnetic energy in order to form in the first place. The Gauss laws of physics determine the levels at which sunspots form, and this is acknowledged to be 1500 Gauss. Each solar cycle is affected by the length and strength of the one before it.

Cycle 24 has been long and weak, indicating from past records that Cycle 25 could be even longer and even weaker than this one.

The worry with that is that the historical record shows that long weak sunspot cycles lead to much colder weather heading towards the cycle minimum. In this case the next 11 years, and then for a decade or so after the end of the cycle.

Data from Cycle 24 has indicated to scientists that Cycle 25 may be so weak that few, if any sunspots form. This could give us 30-40 years of colder weather. "

ErinP · #**170** 02/06/14, 09:07 AM

Googling the exact wording, I'm only finding it on "World News" and "The Daily Sheeple"; both bastions of quality journalism...

jlxian · #**171** 02/06/14, 09:13 AM

LOL, thanks Erin.

I may have to quiz our local weather dude about sunspots.

IowaLez · #**172** 02/06/14, 09:24 AM

We did learn that the Midwest shortage has happened due to the corn farmers burning tons of propane this Fall, to dry their wet corn, going on into November this year Corn has to be 14% moisture or they get dinged at the mills, or when loading the barges on the Mississippi. It just wouldn't dry for them naturally this time. Sometimes this happens. You can rent a tank, usually, no need to buy one. We are just so thankful we could do the farm-winter heating allocation this year; we paid $1.20/gal for a 600 gallon fill in January.

ginny63 · #**173** 02/06/14, 09:24 AM

I prepay 800 gal every year. $1.62 last fall, usually have a carry over. Not this year, paid $4.29 yesterday for min 200 gal. I will make other plans next year.

jlxian · #**174** 02/06/14, 09:32 AM

Regarding sunspots and cycles I found this link:

http://www.almanac.com/sunspotupdate

ErinP · #**175** 02/06/14, 09:49 AM

Interesting:

Quote:

*It is expected that Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 will be relatively quiet-to-average cycles, leading to a cooling pattern over the next few decades.
*Temperatures have been colder than it would have been otherwise. Sunspots are simlar to a bathtub of lukewarm water; if you trickle in cold or hot water, it may take a while to notice the difference. If this cooling phase on Earth is offset by any warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases, they also raise the question of whether an eventual warming cycle could lead to more rapid warming on Earth than expected.

light rain · #**176** 02/06/14, 05:56 PM

Spaceweather.com is a good source of daily info on sunspots, CME's and asteroids.

light rain · #**177** 02/06/14, 06:18 PM

NorthwoodsMike I went to the electric co. yesterday and discussed heating options. A nice young man(shows my age) spent a long time explaining things to me. If we had a separate meter installed just controlling an electric furnace/boiler the cost would be about .035 cents per kwh. We would have to turn off that electricity between 5pm and 8pm daily. That would be ok for us. If we turned it on during that time period it would be .25 cents per kwh. He was very helpful and encouraged me to come back next week and talk to another person there to explore how we could have an electric boiler and also have the option of still using our propane boiler. We don't have any ductwork in our house.
Also went to our propane supplier and asked them if it would be too much trouble to print out our record of propane use over the last 5 years. They were very nice also and said no problem. I'll pick that up next week. The other thing we plan on doing is buying and extra load of wood at the end of heating season for next October-April and personally cutting a lot of dead wood and stacking and covering in anticipation of whatever is gonna happen next heating season.

Lazy J · #**178** 02/06/14, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by IowaLez

We did learn that the Midwest shortage has happened due to the corn farmers burning tons of propane this Fall, to dry their wet corn, going on into November this year Corn has to be 14% moisture or they get dinged at the mills, or when loading the barges on the Mississippi. It just wouldn't dry for them naturally this time. Sometimes this happens. You can rent a tank, usually, no need to buy one. We are just so thankful we could do the farm-winter heating allocation this year; we paid $1.20/gal for a 600 gallon fill in January.

If you believe that then the propaganda machine is working, working well.

Placing the blame on the American Farmer is simply a scapegoat, the problem lies with the propane industry and their decision that we had "more than enough" propane in storage, then made the decision to both export propane AND shutdown the propane pipeline.

big rockpile · #**179** 02/06/14, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MO_cows

Called and checked on propane price today, it was $3.87. Down from 5$ about 10 days ago. The really interesting thing, they ask your name and look up your account before giving the price. Not a good way to do business. I think we are changing propane companies after this winter.

We are with MFA have never had a problem.

Hope this gets rid of the Armadillos

big rockpile

MissKitty · #**180** 02/06/14, 08:15 PM

We heat with wood...but have a heat pump...that we use on to warm up the house if something happens to the fire...I have a propane stove...we are repairing our wood burning cook stove to install next year...Extra heat an another way to cook and bake..