are we in the dark (literally) about oil depletion?

This quote is from Life after the oil crash site:


http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html


"None of the alternatives to oil can even come close to delivering net energy the way oil can.

With all due respect to any environmentalists reading this, your dreams of a society powered by renewable energy are based more in myth and fantasy than science and reality. It is physically and economically impossible for renewable energy to replace oil.

Oil has had an Energy Profit Ratio as high as 100 to 1. This means it takes one unit of energy to produce 100 units.

None of the alternatives have EPR's that even approach that of oil. Some of the alternatives, such as Hydrogen and Biodiesel, are energy losers - they require more energy to produce than they carry.

Furthermore, almost every advocate of alternative energy fails to realize two absolutely key points:

1. It takes a tremendous amount of oil to build alternatives to oil such as solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants. The construction of an average solar panel system, for instance, consumes about as much energy as the construction of a brand new SUV.

2. It would take even more oil to retrofit our multi-billion dollar, fossil fuel based infrastructure to run on these alternative sources of energy.

The harsh truth is there are no true alternatives to oil. The so called alternatives are all derivatives of oil. The power of the sun, the wind, and the atom cannot be harnessed without tremendous and continuous investments in fossil fuels.

What makes the situation even worse is the fact that we probably won't get motivated to aggressively pursue these (modest) alternatives until the oil shocks start to hit hard. At that point, however, it will be too late - we will be in the midst of economic anarchy. Under such conditions, it will be impossible to implement signficant renewable energy programs.

Without an abundant supply of cheap oil, we will have no way to power a transition to something other than oil.

Thus, once we pass the oil production peak, a return to a medieval style of existence will become inevitable."

This is all well and good if you believe this guy.I dont,so much of what he says is plain hogwash.But take it as you will.Go windmills,go solar.It works,even if he cant see it.
www.homepower.com
People who are doing it NOW!And disspelling all the myths that it doesnt work.
BooBoo

[QUOTE=Bruce in NE]This quote is from Life after the oil crash site:


http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html



Furthermore, almost every advocate of alternative energy fails to realize two absolutely key points:

1. It takes a tremendous amount of oil to build alternatives to oil such as solar panels, windmills, and nuclear power plants. The construction of an average solar panel system, for instance, consumes about as much energy as the construction of a brand new SUV.

So What?Power your home for 30 years for the cost of an SUV.How many new cars will you MR average american buy in 30 years?Its not unfeasible at all to go the alternative route.People are DOING IT NOW!

The harsh truth is there are no true alternatives to oil. The so called alternatives are all derivatives of oil. The power of the sun, the wind, and the atom cannot be harnessed without tremendous and continuous investments in fossil fuels.

They can be done without tremendous increase in oil usage.Japanese are making solar cells using solar power,they have a HUGE commitment to solar cell manufacture.Say what you will,the Japanese sure arent stupid when it comes to leading edge manufacturing.It makes sense to them.I think that guy is an oil company shill actually.He sure isnt MY energy Messiah! :no: :no: :no: IMHO,YMMV
BooBoo

Boo boo,

I think you're missing the point in that article.

Sure some people can power their homes with solar in the future at reasonable rates. But can solar power also:

--produce the solar equipment needed and transport it across the country..

--run farm machinery to produce food for a nation and transport and keep that food chilled until it reaches markets across the country...

--power a huge construction industry...

--power the huge fleet of trucks that deliver goods to us each day..

--realistically power private vehicles too and from work...

--provide heat and cooling for homes, factories, etc.

--produce all the side products that oil now produces...

The list could go on and on, but thinking that solar cells can be the replacement for oil is a bit hard to imagine.

Call it BS if it makes you feel better, but there are lots of geologists out there saying the same thing. Unlike Y2K this isn’t a matter of if, but a matter of when.

Colin Campbell: http://www.peakoil.net

Matt Simmons (GWB’s energy advisor): http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/

If you are interested in lots of facts and figures: http://www.dieoff.com/

Or: http://www.oilcrash.com/

I’m no expert, but did write a simple-man’s summary for a growing discussion board, www.peakoil.com : The Basics: http://home.earthlink.net/~aarondunlap/po_theory.htm


Pops

(Edited to replace dup links - sorry)

There are PLENTY of clean, renewable resources available and I believe they can run industries. It's being done here and in other countries. But the main difference here seems to be that word "Profit". Those resources aren't utilized because it would cut into profits. Most people don't want to work harder or have less.
I remember when the "Forever" battery was sold at JC Penney's - the automotive industry got that stopped because it cut into the profit of resale on car batteries.
DeLorean proved that cars could be made using aluminum as the lighter material and no paint was needed, you just buffed out the scratches. Too bad he couldn't keep his "profit" out of his nose.
We could transport goods and people by rail and use less energy - but people like to drive.
People prove everyday it can be done differently - grow your own food, drive a more economical car, build and use solar and wind, methane, hydrogen, ethanol....
The truth is - the majority just don't want to. :no:

"There are PLENTY of clean, renewable resources available and I believe they can run industries. It's being done here and in other countries."

Can you elaborate on this? What are the resources that could replace oil and the 500,000 things that are also made out of oil besides gas....

Profit motives aside, there's just not enough time to retool an entire economy to run on something else... even if we were motivated to do so.

[QUOTE=Taylor]

Anywho, what plans would be prudent in face of the soon-to-be skyrocketing prices of not just oil, but every other commodity due to transportation costs (we are already seeing higher prices on building materials, boughten foods, etc)?

Buy a very high quality axe, a stone with which to sharpen it, and learn to use it like your life depends on it, because, it will. Then learn about all the things that grow without our help that can be eaten. I see too many who think that their alternative energy system or their old farm house is going to save them.
Your power system, I don't care which you've chosen, is going to fail, be vandalized, or be blown away, as may your home. And I'm one who has set up both for permanence, even though I know the probable outcome.
Learn how to find safe drinking water in remore locations, how to become invisible, and, mostly, how to help others who are less fortunate than YOU when the time comes. In the long, long run, the only value our possessions really have is in their capacity to be used for the benefit of our neighbor.
If you have a firm handle on Jesus' two basic commandments, you may have a chance.

Do many of you have experience with alternative energy systems? What are your thoughts?

Yup. Your sweat and metabolism are the best two resources you have. There is no alternative energy system that can compare.

Swampdweller

__________________
This lemming ain't jumpin'.

I agree with both Bruce and OUVicki.

If the peak happens this decade (Campbell has moved his estimate UP from’10 – ’08), oil prices – and thereby virtually everything else, are bound to rise dramatically. Widespread distribution of alternatives after the end of cheap oil will just not work; nothing was ever mass-produced without cheap energy.

The only real alternative, IMHO, is small-scale agriculture on a local basis. That of course is the reason I come here, I’m just surprised that so many here seem to be in as much denial as anywhere else.

As far as ANWR, I have no doubt it will eventually be drilled – it holds a few months worth of US consumption. Same goes for continental shelf oil, coal, shale and all the rest. I doubt there are huge undiscovered fields in the US; it has been poked for a hundred and fifty years and no matter the price of oil or the increases in technology, production peaked in the ‘70’s and has declined since. Worldwide, ’03 saw the smallest quantity of new oil discovered since the 1920’s.

Google “peak oil” and you get 27,500 pages take a look and make your own dicisions, there are "experts" on both sides, But as Matt Savinar of "Life After…" says; "You can deal with the future or it will deal with you."

Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Pops

Here ya go - just a few examples:http://www.ford.com/en/goodWorks/env...Renovation.htm

http://www.uwec.edu/grossmzc/martycw.html

http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumeri...riefs/ad2.html

Actually, time is all we have. The question is, do we want to take and use it wisely or not.

"BTW remember armwire? that place up in Alaska they wanted to drill for Oil, but the ENVIROMENTALIST were worried about the caribou!" - Oilpatch197


Well Oilpatch, I do feel caribou are more important than some rich Yahoo being able to fill up his Hummer with cheap gas. Not only that- even the oil industry admits the amount of oil that would come out of that area is just a drop in our oil consumption bucket - even with the use of new technology. The only reason to drill in this pristine area of Alaska is because a few Bush buddies will maked big bucks - plus a few Alaskan locals will be able to afford the more expensive brands of beer for a few years. Sorry, I just won't trade God's beautiful world for the greed of the oil industry and our inability to manage our resources.

PS - I think those weapons of mass destruction over in Iraq are hidden at the bottom of their oil wells.

I looked at the 3 URLS you (OUVickie) indicated. None of them provides information to show that they can scale to substitute for a significant portion (more than say 15-20% of current consumption of energy based on hydrocarbons. The other issue is that none of the technologies shown substitutes for oil based usage.

This is not to say I am against developing alternative energy sources. It's just that there would need to be a significant reworking of peoples lives to take advantage of those sources.

I agree with Greenwitch. For the amount of oil that we might get out of ANWR, I don't think we should be rushing to suck it dry to save the consumer a few cents a gallon for a few years. If it gets developed at all it should be as a strategic resource for the long term (when we have no other alternatives).

Swampdweller, I've looked at alternative energy time and again. It's been hard to justify at this point. I think the first thing we will be putting in (when finances permit) will be a microturbine on the spillway of our dam. This seems to yield a better return on investment than either solar or wind.

My big issue is batteries. They only have a useful life of 10-15 years. This is an issue regardless of whether the power source is wind, water or solar.

We currently use candles for lighting at the cabin (I have some nice sconces I picked up cheap) and it works fine for us.

Mike

Exactly - I agree, people's priorities would have to change. It can be done, but people have gotten used to the instant gratification to wants and needs - flip a switch, the light comes on - turn the faucet, instant running water. Cold outside, crank up the heat.....
But, if they demanded something different, it would happen.
The Law of Supply and Demand. I think one thing that will show us this change will be the cars people buy. Automotive mfgs. are already scrambling to provide what people want - hybrid SUVs and such. The waiting list for the Prius was already 4 mos long and still growing last I checked.
The same may finally happen with heating this winter. It will be interesting to see what happens when those heating with oil have to find a different source of energy, because they can't afford to heat their homes this winter. If the demand is there, the technology will change.
I know we can't instantly change the way things are done, but people will be looking at alternatives in a serious way now. When you hit them in the pocketbook, it gets their attention. They're being lured into thinking gas will get cheaper again, maybe during the election, but I don't think it will last long and I doubt if it will be by much. I'm sure desperation will cause the government to open up oil drilling to places we prefer they didn't, but the tap will run out eventually.
Anyway, time will tell.

i think there's an oil problem coming, but i think the apocalyptic types are over playing it. look at their numbers and where they arrive at their conclusions. some are way off.

yeah, nuclear power plants are tremendously expensive...in this country. that is due mostly to over regulation, ridiculous safety standards,etyc. the price could be much, much lower.

i've seen their figures for determing that ethanol is not a net energy giver, but they figure in things like transporting corn 100 miles to an ethanol plant. i could build still and make ethanol on my farm and i could do it for a net energfy gain. that would keep my machinery running so i can continue to feed people.

when they make their doom and gloom predictions about starvation, they do not adjust for all the unnecessary calories consumed. yeah, there'd be less food, but there would also be much less fat people too!

they also claim it takes 175 gallons of water to grow a pound of corn....not!

they say that the dip in the consumption curve in the early 80's was due to recession, though others say it was due to conservation. i think the truth is in the middle somewhere.

read the numbers carefully....and make up your own mind.

jena--who's getting tired of one-handed, vicodin-influenced typing.

Of course we cant do without oil,but we can cut its use,and thats the part we need to do.Outside of airconditioning(refrigerated) I think the biggest user of home electric power is the refrig,and the technology is in use now that uses very little power compared to the current energy guzzlers,but it costs a thousand bucks for the basic model.I saw a chest freezer,1000 bucks,running on a 150 watt panel,with a thermometer inside reading 0 degrees! AMAZING!!!!So in my book,a reasonably efficient refer is true cost 1000 dollars.If they all went this route,prices would drop.The good ole compact flourescents cut usage what?75% or so?Ive been in cement houses in 100 degree weather that were downright cool inside.So we do have alternatives.So lights,tv,refrigeration can all be done with very little energy USE,so I think a 50% cut in power usage is certainly doable.If we did that no need to import oil at all.Now thats REAL security for America.Its not just solar,wind,etc and energy production,its also reduced energy consumption.And it can be done and you would never notice the difference.Every dollar spent on energy conservation saves 3 dollars in alternate energy production costs(Per Richard Perez,the man at www.homepower.com )This guy IS DOING IT and has the figures to back it up.Thats where the big bang for the buck really comes in,conservation,or if you dont like that word,efficiency.Solar or wind power to pump water?Neither needs that battery bugaboo that shakes so many people.Big energy savings there.And solar hot water is now incredibly efficient with the new systems,state of the art technology.
As for nuclear,no thank you.At least when a terrorist destroys a windmill,it wont kill you,me,or 100,000 of our closests friends,or shut down the grid either. I have no use for expanded use of poison fuels that just happen to make fine weapons of mass destruction.
As for running out of oil,dont sweat it,there will always be "new discoveries" that are just enough to meet demand,with enough wiggle room for a few bazillion "energy shortages" thrown in to keep that price sky high.Or just a little less oil than needed to keep prices REALLY HIGH.At least if the crap Ive been hearing about it for the last 40 years cont. on the same route they have in the past.
BooBoo

BooBoo<----- Typing while under the influence of buttermilk :worship: ! :haha: :haha:

"Profit motives aside, there's just not enough time to retool an entire economy to run on something else... even if we were motivated to do so."

That would be like Changing the Power Grid to use 220 Household current, way too expensive!

So we are left with 110v outlets.

Solar is not the only renewable energy source available but hyrbid cars are already on the road. They aren't as desirable for everything the gas guzzler vehicles are but some things are hard to imagine right now. Not as hard as it was 30 years ago however and not as hard as it will be to imagine in another 10 years. The pace has been increasing but it will take time. We have that invested in oil-based energy now: lots of time and money [and blood]. It will take the same for other energy sources and some of the results we call fiction now or as the author said "myth and fantasy," will be as hard to believe as the modern kitchen would be to a family in 1800.

__________________
Tiny Forest ~ my tiny blog

This is IT, so close to truth as can be. Between dogs, kids and us adults coming in and out the back door which is right no carpet, it's impossible to keep clean, even with a runner. We can shampoo it one day and the very next it is filthy yet again. I 'd MUCH rather have tile or hard wood to use a push mop(like commercial cleaners use ie. schools and stores) on daily than a constant gross carpet. Carpets also hold in allergens and smells. I'd much rather have to beat out an area rug and push mop FOR SURE.

Here ya go - just a few examples:

http://www.ford.com/en/goodWorks/en...eRenovation.htm

http://www.uwec.edu/grossmzc/martycw.html

http://www.eere.energy.gov/consumer...briefs/ad2.html


Okay, I'll admit you're probably right.

I didn't know Ford was building a new factory that will store rainwater on its roof. That should take care of the oil shortage.