Food shortages could bring riots to the US, FOX NEWS 13JAN11 - Page 3 - Homesteading Today
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  #41  
Old 01/18/11, 11:16 PM
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Any news organization worth its salt should be above sensationalist, fear mongering so-called reporting. There used to be a difference between the networks and the national enquirer. Now, not so much. Perfect example tonight, it's gonna snow tomorrow and all the local stations are carrying on like the world might end. It's the middle of January in the midwest, and it's gonna snow? Gee, that isn't exactly news, now is it????
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  #42  
Old 01/18/11, 11:37 PM
 
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I don't think it can even be argued at this point that food prices, AT LEAST, are going up(or arguably inflation is making your dollars worth less commodities).

So if you plan to eat for the next five years..... if prices increase only 10% and you INVEST xxx$'s of your income in food storage........you will see a return of at least 10%. Many smart investors are betting that the prices will double.

Everywhere I shop prices have increase this quarter. Of course, if the Doomer's are right and TSHTF.... ..... hey....you'll look like a genius to all your friends.(Then you'll probably look like a target of course).
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  #43  
Old 01/19/11, 12:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astrid View Post
The world is different now than in the '70's. I'm not so sure people are going to just take it... Especially since so many are out of work. There just may be a breaking point.
IMO the people are more sheep than ever,I dont think todays generation is capable of standing up and being counted on anything.

No riots,more video games.
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  #44  
Old 01/19/11, 01:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deacon Mike
Food and energy are included in calculating inflation
A simple Google search says that's not true

Quote:
BLS calculates the CPI for two population groups, one consisting only of wage earners and clerical workers and the other consisting of all urban consumers. In addition, a Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and a Chained CPI are also widely used measures of consumer inflation.
Quote:
The core CPI index excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile and non-systemic. More specifically, food and energy prices are widely thought to be subject to large changes that often fail to persist and do not represent relative price changes. In many instances, large movements in food and energy prices arise because of supply disruptions such as drought or OPEC-led cutbacks in production.
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  #45  
Old 01/19/11, 02:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JuliaAnn View Post
Unprecedented?

No, I remember back in the early/mid 70's. If I recall correctly, it was '75, maybe '76, sugar and meat prices in particular went very high. No riots that I recall, but then I was a young teenager at the time and may simply have not been aware of them.

So this is not 'unprecedented'.

Ah the good old days of the 1970s. My mother had the biggest garden in our subdivision , we went rabbit and squrrel hunting, had a couple steers and a few hogs on the mountain south of here at my fathers 30s era foster aunt and uncle's place where we went for Sunday dinner and got eggs , milk and butter, we kept 100 gallons of extra gas stored because we were on even /odd tag number rationing days and my father taught me how to make homemade wine and beer.

Then came the 80s and the markets improved and my father unloadedthe two acre place in town for 12 acres, a barn and a doublewide here by the mountain.

30 years later my mother still has the farm and I got this little piece two miles away and just as my father did it in the 70s no mortgages on either place. Even when times are hard, life is good.

Now that I think about it I even had a PC in 1978. A Radio Shack TRaSh-80 with rs-232 expansion interface and ran BASIC, but a PC all the same. Acouple years later I even had a modem for it that the phone reciever plugged into so I could connect to a friends trash 80 across town
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Last edited by Shrek; 01/19/11 at 02:56 AM.
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  #46  
Old 01/19/11, 04:31 AM
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Had my DH not been permanently disabled in a tragic accident in 1995, he would still be divorced, but wouldn't have had to sell the 3-story log home he built himself (logged and peeled the logs, even built the log boom...). As it was, after that accident, the beautiful log home, on 5 acres with a view of a mountain, was sold for far less than it was worth (divorce). I had to sell my house when I was divorced and was financially ruined. We married 7 years ago, 2nd marriages for us both. It would be great if DH and I, who are both conservative, didn't have a mortgage but that isn't our reality.

On reducing costs? Large garden producing more than we eat (plenty to put up), a fruit orchard of now 21 trees with 19 of them bearing fruit, and we hunt, fish, dig clams, harvest oysters, go crabbing, etc... We try to limit our drives to town, don't watch tv, don't go out to eat, etc... Neither of us drink or smoke cigarettes, so that keeps costs down. Our wood stove heats our home, our hot water, and DH built a drying rack to dry our clothes on. He worked hard to get us enough firewood for this Winter, and is already working on next year's firewood. I agree prepping is critical right now with rising food prices! That is a way of life for us, anyway, just need to ramp it up.
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  #47  
Old 01/19/11, 09:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by salmonslayer View Post
Food and energy are excluded from figuring the CPI because of their volatility and COLAs for government retirements (including military) and Social Security are tied to the CPI.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deacon Mike View Post
This is flat out incorrect. Social Security COLAs went up 5.8% in 2009 due specifically due to energy price spikes in the 3rd quarter of 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by salmonslayer View Post
I am not trying to argue with you and dont dispute they went up. The CPI used by the BLS for Social Security is the wage earners and clerical workers CPI (CPI-W) which hardly reflects the typical retiree and its also doesnt reflect the impact of taxes on goods and services. Many governmental programs use the CPI index that excludes energy and food prices (due to their volatility) which impacts funding for these programs which is what the poster was talking about (at least what I took from it). Go to the BLS website and if you look the CPI including food and energy went up significantly more than the CPI that excludes food and energy...its a numbers game and the index used is often manipulated for political purposes. I think we are saying the same thing so why the hostility? Do you actually have anything to add to the discussion?
First, I don't think we are saying the same thing. You stated that the impact of food and energy inflation is excluded from SS COLAs. I stated that you were incorrect. So I fail to see how we agree.

And I don't see pointing out you are incorrect as hostility, it's just the truth.

If you want to argue that the CPI-W is a poor metric, that's a different discussion.

When you state that various programs use the "Core" number that excludes food and energy, you are also incorrect.

As geo was kind enough to post on page 1 of this thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by geo in mi View Post
"Has the BLS removed food or energy prices in its official measure of inflation?
No. The BLS publishes thousands of CPI indexes each month, including the headline All Items CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI-U for All Items Less Food and Energy. The latter series, widely referred to as the "core" CPI, is closely watched by many economic analysts and policymakers under the belief that food and energy prices are volatile and are subject to price shocks that cannot be damped through monetary policy. However, all consumer goods and services, including food and energy, are represented in the headline CPI.

Most importantly, none of the prominent legislated uses of the CPI excludes food and energy. Social security and federal retirement benefits are updated each year for inflation by the All Items CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Individual income tax parameters and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) returns are based on the All Items CPI-U. "You can get the full story from :http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Thanks geo. I added highlights to what I consider the most pertinent points.
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  #48  
Old 01/19/11, 09:25 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ksfarmer View Post
Paul, you are correct except wasn't it Jimmy Carter president and Earl Butz was sec of ag. And wasn't that when the American Ag Movement protests occured and the tractors went to D.C.? The older I get the worse my memory is. Think the tractorcade protests were in '79.
Butz was the Nixon administration, Butz envisioned the USA planting fencerow to fencerow, big ag, produce a lot of food in this country. As this was ramping up to push farmers into debt and bigger & more; we had a bit of an ecconomic issue in the USA creating big inflation, and there was a global wheat shortage. So Nixon embargoed wheat sales, to keep food cheaper in the USA. It was a double edge whammy on USA farmers - pushed into producing more and have more debt, then just as good on-farm prices hit, they took away our markets. Grain prices fell the limit for 3 straight days, couldn't find a buyer to sell to.


The world was just getting over what Nixon/Butz did to USA farming, when Jimmy Carter did a grain & sports embargo to 'teach USSSR a lesson'.

This is what really put the rest of the world on alert that the USA will use food as a weapon when we do such a thing (grain embargo) twice in a short time, and kicked USA farmers back into the middle ages. No one bought from the USA until South America ran out of grain...


Note that unlike others, I am picking on a far right & far left politician for the same action. So we can take the partisan political junk somewhere else.

Making knee-jerk reactions to ecconomic issues will have long, long consequences. Has in the past, will in the future. Both parties do it.

Should soybeans hit $20, corn hit $10, it's all just part of the plan to keep plenty of food on the table in 2013 and beyond...... Mess with that, and you go hungry in a few years, or you have decades and decades of poor farmers and $$$$ govt farm programs....

--->Paul
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  #49  
Old 01/19/11, 09:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deacon Mike View Post
Food and energy are included in calculating inflation
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bearfootfarm View Post
A simple Google search says that's not true
Quote:
BLS calculates the CPI for two population groups, one consisting only of wage earners and clerical workers and the other consisting of all urban consumers. In addition, a Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and a Chained CPI are also widely used measures of consumer inflation.
You own quote shows it is true. To exclude it from the "Core" number, it must be included in the CPI-U and the CPI-W.

You might want to reread geo's post #14 on page 1 of this thread.
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  #50  
Old 01/19/11, 09:39 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom VH View Post
Yep, some times we all need a reminder that the US and global community can get a bit stormy, (don't stop learning how to fend for you're selves) but after the seventies we rose and thrived again, let's not get all panicky watching obvious "Fox propaganda for the excitable right wing Patriots" Ho Waite a minute I just looked out the window and the sky IS falling, I'd better get to my bomb shelter. Did you notice the riot police in the video, they never said there are riots occurring now, certainly not here, it was a ploy to fill you with fear and rage. calm down and do some research and that means a bit broader than Fox or MSNBC. I'll do some of my own, tonight, how about you?
I have no idea what you're challenging me to do with your foot stomping post and question to me? I mentioned no news organization whatsoever. My post wasn't political in any way.

I merely offered up an observation that some people are reacting in many of the ways they did in the past.

Paul, this was when we moved from primarily row cropping to beef cattle. In retrospect it was one of the best moves my father ever made. We actually added several acres of crop ground (at a very low price), put them under pasture, and came out the other side in much better shape than many of our neighbors.
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  #51  
Old 01/19/11, 09:44 AM
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There won't be any shortage of food. What there may be is shortages of the foods that people prefer to eat.
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  #52  
Old 01/19/11, 09:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rambler View Post
Butz was the Nixon administration, Butz envisioned the USA planting fencerow to fencerow, big ag, produce a lot of food in this country. As this was ramping up to push farmers into debt and bigger & more; we had a bit of an ecconomic issue in the USA creating big inflation, and there was a global wheat shortage. So Nixon embargoed wheat sales, to keep food cheaper in the USA. It was a double edge whammy on USA farmers - pushed into producing more and have more debt, then just as good on-farm prices hit, they took away our markets. Grain prices fell the limit for 3 straight days, couldn't find a buyer to sell to.


The world was just getting over what Nixon/Butz did to USA farming, when Jimmy Carter did a grain & sports embargo to 'teach USSSR a lesson'.

This is what really put the rest of the world on alert that the USA will use food as a weapon when we do such a thing (grain embargo) twice in a short time, and kicked USA farmers back into the middle ages. No one bought from the USA until South America ran out of grain...


Note that unlike others, I am picking on a far right & far left politician for the same action. So we can take the partisan political junk somewhere else.

Making knee-jerk reactions to ecconomic issues will have long, long consequences. Has in the past, will in the future. Both parties do it.

Should soybeans hit $20, corn hit $10, it's all just part of the plan to keep plenty of food on the table in 2013 and beyond...... Mess with that, and you go hungry in a few years, or you have decades and decades of poor farmers and $$$$ govt farm programs....

--->Paul
I stand corrected, thanks Paul. My memory is getting older and worse than I thought. I do remember the events of '79 because thats when I had a heart attack and missed the trip with the tractors to D.C.. Then I slowed down my farming operation. I see $14 beans and wonder why I sold mine 2 months ago. You are also correct in that decision today affect the grain market a year or two from now,,,not today. Those who want the govt. out of farming had best hope this means out of the overseas markets and foreign aid as well.
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  #53  
Old 01/19/11, 11:05 AM
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I think Fox is fear mongering
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  #54  
Old 01/19/11, 11:14 AM
 
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Originally Posted by peri_simmons View Post
Pony, I agree, The word specious could hurt my feelings but I'll let it go. Let me say however, I have read many of your posts over time and thought you warm, compassionate, on many subjects. I look forward to seeing that little guy on the horse.

I am not insulted at all by your disagreement. Have a good un'!
I apologize for the "specious." What I meant to convey is that it's really all just beside the point; I don't trust any major "news" agency to give unbiased reports on what's happening in the world.

It just grinds my gears when folks throw accusations at one side without acknowledging that the "other side" is hardly beyond circumspection.

I am having a good day, despite this bitterly cold weather. At least the sun is shining, and that keeps my SolarPony! (patent pending) batteries charged.

Hope you're enjoying yourself on your slice of this planet, and that we'll one day share a cuppa and a chat.
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  #55  
Old 01/19/11, 11:19 AM
 
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Originally Posted by michiganfarmer View Post
I think Fox is fear mongering
Actually, I think ALL "news" outlets are in it for... the MONEY!

"If it bleeds, it leads" - and it sells advertising spots. Same for network "news" (which is, one must admit, supported and approved by whomever is currently holding the reins).

It's hard to find actual hard news, and takes a lot of digging. Most folks don't have the time to do that sort of research, so it behooves us all to cast a jaundiced eye on anyone who has something to benefit by giving information a particular slant.
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  #56  
Old 01/19/11, 11:24 AM
 
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I heard our senator talking about more media mergers in the works. He's fighting to keep it from happening because it will put control of the news in the hands of just 4 corporations. That means the advertisers will have even more control of the news that affects their product sales.

While people argue about government control of our lives Corporate World is quietly tightening the noose.
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  #57  
Old 01/19/11, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Bearfootfarm View Post
A simple Google search says that's not true
Inflations never been a problem, as long as you don't eat, or use any energy (drive, warm/cool your home, take baths/showers, you know... stuff you use every day). Doh!
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  #58  
Old 01/19/11, 12:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Pony View Post
Actually, I think ALL "news" outlets are in it for... the MONEY!
I wonder if there are any organizations, individuals, corporations, whatever, that aren't 'in it' (whatever "it" may be) for the money. Anyone anywhere that isn't "in it" for the money, already has "the money" (read: rich).

In this country, if you don't make money, you go broke, and whatever you were doing you don't do anymore. That is, unless that anti-capitalist force, the government, is 'supporting the cause' (paid for, of course, by the contingent of Americans that "do" have to work "for" money...).

I prefer market driven solutions... if there is a need, someone will fill it... and if the market is good, they'll make money, and succeed. If they try to fill a void that doesn't exist, they go broke. You reward good deeds, and punish bad ones. You don't reward bad deeds.

No one watches a network, it goes down... if everyone watches it, they get rich, and provide even more of whatever the public is clamoring for.

.....what has this got to do with food shortages... and while we're at it, what are you folks that haven't started stocking food doing in those hand baskets, and why is it getting 'hotter and hotter'?
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  #59  
Old 01/19/11, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by cornbread View Post
Food shortages could bring riots to the US, FOX NEWS 13JAN11

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMLwsCykqIY

Food prices soaring to prices never before seen..."

"It's a confluence of bad things. Our supplies are already low - corn, rice, sugar, wheat, coffee and now we're finding out that the crops we were expecting may be light as well which means prices are on the rise."

"When corn prices went up two years ago, it sparked food riots..."

I'm still wondering about this one thing: Why oh why did our beloved government decide to REMOVE food and energy from the Consumer Price Index?

Is it because, if worse comes to worse, we can just sit at home and starve?

No it is so they can lie and pretend inflation is not what it is.. and that will allow them to extend their games...
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  #60  
Old 01/19/11, 12:57 PM
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No one watches a network, it goes down... if everyone watches it, they get rich, and provide even more of whatever the public is clamoring for.
You made some good points... I just want to know why the public continues to clamor for more dumbed down programming. Maybe the general public isn't smart enought to be able to choose wisely.

I was home on Monday and my daughter turned on the livingroom tv. As she struggled to find something to watch on cable, she landed on The Real Housewives of Atlanta. She stayed there for a few minutes while we blinked in disbelief. It truly was a trainwreck. She flipped again and found something else equally inane. When she turned it off she said, 'I somehow feel dumber just by having turned the tv on.' She went into her room to find a book.

Later that evening, hubby turned from watching ESPN and found reality show about people who repossess cars for a living. Another trainwreck of uneducated, foul-mouthed people who become belligerent and throw things when they come to retrieve their vehicles. He said that we should cancel our cable subscription once the superbowl was over. Of course he then remembered that the new season of Treme on HBO will be starting again and he does enjoy that immensely.
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