Is this SHTF, or are you expecting something much more dire?

insocal · #**101** 11/12/08, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fishhead

This may be it but we won't know until the dust settles. Hopefully the optimism the world has shown over our election results is contagious.

I am already seeing more willingness to spend $ at my vet clinic since the election. People BELIEVE that things are gonna improve. and I am of the opinion that at least half our problem is psychological.

Renewed optimism is a good thing.

LandRover · #**102** 11/12/08, 05:54 PM

It's not a shtf scenario yet, but we are seeing a slow dismantling of a way of life that's existed for the past 30 years. We're seeing the end of US dominance of the world. We'll see an end to cheap consumerism.

We're also seeing the downside of Free Markets - a bust. We were sold an idea that free markets are all boom and no bust - that's just not true.

It'll end, we could do with an end to the falling dominoes and we'll see things recover fairly swiftly as pent-up demand comes back into the market.

texican · #**103** 11/13/08, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by seedspreader

Warren Buffet endorsed Obama.

Interestingly, Buffett was also finance advisor to California Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger during his 2003 election campaign.

That's the same California that is bankrupt.

Warren is no fool... get Obama in, have more businesses driven into the ground, buy them for cents on the dollar... it's been his "MO" forever.

Buffett is a wise and wealthy man, but like Soros, Buffett is for Buffett... and his Bershire Hathaway fund.

Yes, Buffett buys and holds... when you get stock or a company for pennies, why sell? Shed the dead weight, (unions, high priced employees) and enjoy a tidy profit...

onthespot · #**104** 11/13/08, 09:17 PM

Cut 'n paste from another forum... Celente...

Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions
By 2012

Before you folks paint this guy as another crackpot:

“When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente.”
— CNN Headline News
“A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.”
— The Economist
“Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right.”
— USA Today
“There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about.”
- CNBC
“Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute.”
— The Wall Street Journal
“Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark … he’s one of the most accurate forecasters around.”
— The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
“Mr. Celente tracks the world’s social, economic and business trends for corporate clients.”
— The New York Times
“Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority.”
— 48 Hours, CBS News
“Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing.”
— The Detroit News
“Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, ‘green marketing,’ and the boom in gourmet coffees.”
— Chicago Tribune
“The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture.”
— The Los Angeles Times
“If Nostradamus were alive today, he’d have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente.”
— New York Post

Trend forecaster, renowned for being accurate in the past, says that America will cease to be a developed nation within 4 years, crisis will be “worse than the great depression”

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.
Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

“We’re going to see the end of the retail Christmas….we’re going to see a fundamental shift take place….putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree,” said Celente, adding that the situation would be “worse than the great depression”.
“America’s going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for,” said Celente, noting that people’s refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.
Watch the clip.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as “The Panic of 2008,” adding that “giants (would) tumble to their deaths,” which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 per cent.
The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.
In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.
“There will be a revolution in this country,” he said. “It’s not going to come yet, but it’s going to come down the line and we’re going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen.”
“The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That’s going to be the big one because people can’t afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You’re going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop.”
“It’s going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we’re going to see many more.”
“We’re going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It’s going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It’s going to come as a shock and with it, there’s going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people’s minds weren’t wrecked on all these modern drugs – over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody’s comprehension.”

seedspreader · #**105** 11/13/08, 09:29 PM

Not to turn into a Warren Buffet bash, but...

He is a RICH ideologue. His wealth is just a vehicle to promote his ideology. When I read things like this: (from the wikipedia site -Bold responses mine.)

Quote:

# Buffett emphasized the non-productive aspect of gold in 1998 at Harvard: "It gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head." In 1977 Buffett was also quoted as saying about stocks, gold, farmland, and inflation: "stocks are probably still the best of all the poor alternatives in an era of inflation - at least they are if you buy in at appropriate prices."[43] He's a guy who has done well, made tons of money and knows how the market works... when it's working... it isn't always destined to be the same and react the same. Simple statistics say as much. Gold can't be manipulated as easily as paper and most rich people don't like it... because you actually have to own it and it's a tangible thing... makes it hard to make it up out of nowhere.
# Buffett stated that he only paid 19% of his income for 2006 ($48.1 million) in total federal taxes, while his employees paid 33% of theirs, despite making much less money.[44] If he disagrees with this, why didn't he pay more or effectively pay the taxes for his employees? Charity (with tax dollars) starts at home... put his money where his mouth is.
# Buffett believes that the U.S. dollar will lose value in the long run. He views the United States' expanding trade deficit as an alarming trend that will devalue the U.S. dollar and U.S. assets. As a result it is putting a larger portion of ownership of U.S. assets in the hands of foreigners. This induced Buffett to enter the foreign currency market for the first time in 2002. However, he substantially reduced his stake in 2005 as changing interest rates increased the costs of holding currency contracts. Buffett continues to be bearish on the dollar, and says he is looking to make acquisitions of companies which derive a substantial portion of their revenues from outside the United States. Buffett invested in PetroChina Company Limited and in a rare move, posted a commentary[45] on Berkshire Hathaway's website stating why he would not divest from the company despite calls from some activists to do so. (He did, however, sell this stake, apparently for purely financial reasons.) Uh... this is the guy we want in charge of our money making policies??? He goes where the biggest $$$ is... Sure, it's like most Americans, but isn't that the same complaint that was thrown out about Bush and "oil buddies"... why should I trust him?
# Buffett believes that the world is nearing its maximum capacity of oil production and that gradually depleted oil fields could reduce the amount produced.[46] Yeah, probably. Glad the oracle got this one right.
# Buffett believes government should not be in the business of gambling, believing it to be a tax on ignorance.[47] Again, agree with him here on the surface. It's the poorest who always gamble the most. Of course, I suppose someone could look at him "urging people to buy stock, and then buying a bunch of GE stock (hehehe, who "by chance" own NBC (the National Barack Channel) knowing that GE is going to get a huge chunk of bailout money... could be considered a bit of taxing the ignorant too...
# Buffett's speeches are known for mixing business discussions with humor. Each year, Buffett presides over Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting in the Qwest Center in Omaha, Nebraska, an event drawing over 20,000 visitors from both United States and abroad, giving it the nickname "Woodstock of Capitalism".[48]
# Berkshire's annual reports and letters to shareholders, prepared by Buffett, frequently receive coverage by the financial media. Buffett's writings are known for containing literary quotes ranging from the Bible to Mae West,[49] as well as Midwestern advice, and numerous jokes. Various websites extol Buffett's virtues while others decry Buffett’s business models or dismiss his investment advice and decisions.
# Buffett favors the inheritance tax, saying that repealing it would be like "choosing the 2020 Olympic team by picking the eldest sons of the gold-medal winners in the 2000 Olympics".[50] In 2007, Buffett testified before the Senate and urged them to preserve the estate tax so as to avoid a plutocracy. He's already backtracked a bit on this... He's giving (or has given) large portions of his money to an Aristocracy vs. a plutocracy with his donations to the Gates foundation to promote their pet manipulations of society. Isn't America great?
# Buffett has endorsed Barack Obama for president[51] and intimated that John McCain's views on social justice were so far from his own that McCain would need a "lobotomy" for Buffett to change his endorsement.[52] hmmm, social justice... What about McCain and social justice does he find so repulsive? Anyone? What about Obama and social justice does he find so appealing? Anyone?
# Buffett has called the 2007—present downturn in the financial sector "poetic justice".[53] Ironically it has catapulted him into being the richest man on the planet... poetic alright. Trillions lost, his buy up of a bunch of companies on the dime of the government, no insider information there I am sure, and the richest man finds poetic justice in it. I bet he finds a profit in it too. Again, isn't America great?
# In his letter to shareholders in March, 2005, Warren Buffett predicted that in another ten years’ time the net ownership of the U.S. by outsiders would amount to $11 trillion. “Americans … would chafe at the idea of perpetually paying tribute to their creditors and owners abroad. A country that is now aspiring to an ‘ownership society’ will not find happiness in - and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis - a 'sharecropping society’.” So why did he move his money into foreign investments if he's so against this??? Oh, that's right... SHOW ME THE MONEY.
# Author Ann Pettifor has adopted the image in her writings and has stated: "He is right. And so the thing we must fear most now, is not just the collapse of banks and investment funds, or of the international financial architecture, but of a 'sharecropper society, angry at its downfall.

Being conservative doesn't make you wealthy (it does make you have a better life... but that doesn't equate to physical wealth) and being wealthy doesn't make you conservative.

As the Bible says, the rain falls on the just and the unjust. Just because someone is rich doesn't even give them great credibility on economic policy. Because a thousand people with a thousand philosophies can all be rich and proclaim the way they did it was the way it should be done.

Much wealth is gotten by a magical combination of the right person, at the right time, at the right place with a lot of hard work and dedication... but that means totally different things ultimately.

Many wealthy drug dealers could give their philosophy on how they got wealthy, or on economics in general and it doesn't mean a thing to me.

I don't have a personal issue with Buffet and his wealth. I just get a little tired of the wealthiest man telling me what's really good for the poor people and then doing things that seem the opposite of it.

Have a good night Mr. Buffet... sleep well.

LandRover · #**106** 11/13/08, 09:34 PM

He's a cheery soul isn't he.

Seagrape · #**107** 11/13/08, 10:16 PM

The Great Depression was really tough on some people and others sailed through it with hardly any difficulty so one person's SHTF is another person's minor bump in the road . I was born in the middle of the Depression and my family was lucky in that we had a house, a cow, chickens, a garden and fruit and nut trees (all in a residential section of a good sized city in Texas), although my parents were badly strapped financially. Nevertheless, they made it through and none of us starved or wore rags for clothing. (Second hand and homemade from flour sacks, yes, but clean and in good repair.) My uncle lost all his money when a bank failed but he was a resourceful farmer and survived.

The world is different today and no one can really predict how bad it will get or how long it will last. Government is so much bigger and has a greater hand in every aspect of our lives, with many more people dependent on it through various programs.

Will we eventually have food shortages? Possibly. Unless credit eases and becomes more available, farmers in my area will have some of their crop lands lie fallow next season, as they are unable to get the credit to buy sufficient seed. Layoffs have begun at some of the larger employers in the area. And........there is always the prospect that America's enemies will seek to take advantage of an already bad situation and strike us again, causing further instability both economically and socially.

Since this is a homesteading forum, I would assume that most folks here are at least somewhat prepared for a SHTF scenario but the masses of people in the high density population areas will have the most difficulty.

7thswan · #**108** 11/22/08, 01:13 PM

Socialism is a stepping stone for Communism.This problem we have right now was started with soci. ideals being implemented. Our worlds markets are in fear now over what they as an impending death to Capitalism. Everyone is afraid. I am afraid of loosing my Freedom, and loosing ones Money/job is a loss of freedom. I've been learning to live with my hands and know I'll get along nomatter where I have to go. Fear makes it far easer of one to be fooled with Helpfulness. What happens when people find out they've been Duped-I fear them also. The only light I see, is that this downturn just might protect us from the Gov. being able to implement bad decisions as soon as they'ed Like. So do all you can to get ready, learn to live without all the things some would take away from you to make you submit.

**highlands** · #**109** 11/22/08, 01:48 PM

I would word it the other way around. Communism is a failed purist ideal. It's been tried repeatedly but it just doesn't work. Countries that try communism end up moving to a socialist model or beyond towards a more capitalistic model. Likewise, pure capitalism is an ideal that doesn't exist in this world. I like societies that lean heavily towards the capitalistic end of socialism. However there are some useful aspects of each. Communism works well on a micro-scale but not with large groups.

FUNKY PIONEER · #**110** 11/22/08, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pizza Guy

Warren Buffett apparently thinks we are near the bottom since he has been sitting in a cash position for quite a while now and he is now buying billions of dollars of preferred stocks. Some of the companies he is buying is Exxon-Mobil, Cocoa-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, MasterCard and Fastenal. I hope he's correct.

Yeah the last stocks Buffet bought he lost 60 billion, I wouldn't bank on him.

ErinP · #**111** 11/22/08, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Grid electric's still up. Internet up. TV stations up. No Zombies. No gunfire in the distance (well, 'some', it IS hunting season)...

so no, this isn't even a baby poo hit the fan...

Scroll down to the SEP subforum. That's where the really deep shtf, and TEOTWAWKI discussions are located.

I agree, also.
From what I can tell, belt-tightening is occurring, but for the most part life continues as usual.

Quote:

Our banker keeps reminding us that if people had stayed in the stock market during the 1929 crash instead of bailing out they would have made money - taking our money out at this point doesn't make sense.

And this is absolutely true. Well, except for those folks that were invested in the companies that died never to be re-born...

Quote:

Most of recorded history would not think of our current situation as anything but a minor inconvience.

Amen.

To keep it in perspective, people should ask themselves what would God have to say were we to complain to Him?
We are still an extremely wealthy, first world nation. Even our "poor" class is still better off than the vast majority of people on this planet.

Gregg Alexander · #**112** 11/22/08, 04:09 PM

As near as I can figure we are headed to another depression, figure it will 10 times worse , probably unemployment will top out at 27-33% , inflation will be around 12%, homeless familys will be around 18% in default companys around 40% , armed forces will be on the streets to enforce military law.All handguns , hunting guns will be baned and taken form citizens homes. All this will take place by 2010 Shake Obama's mid term. We will have a terriost attack by a series of dirty bombs, plane crashs killing 10's of thousands and Congress will blame Bush for all of it

trinityoaks · #**113** 11/22/08, 10:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trinity3

10% uber wealthy, that don't really pay taxes,

Ummm. . . No. The wealthy pay the HIGHEST percentage of taxes.

Quote:

Unfortunately Nixon took us off of the gold standard where our money was backed by something of value, like gold.

Ummm. . . No. That was Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

ET1 SS · #**114** 11/22/08, 11:19 PM

We could look it up, though I think it runs about 28% - 35% of American households file taxes, but do not pay any income taxes.

As a seperate issue, the higher brackets of personal income have the highest rates of income taxes. However the uber-wealthy do not pay income taxes as a general rule. Only the wealthy that have not figured it out yet.

FreeRanger · #**115** 11/22/08, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nevada

I don't believe it's wise to buy into a falling market, but I'm not bashing anyone for doing so. After all, it's your money. However, I do draw the line at giving poor investment advice. You never know who might take it.

But I am curious as to how you know which companies will make it and which one won't? Obviously, if a company goes under it's a poor long term investment, regardless of how long you hold the stock. Wouldn't you agree?

We are investing in livestock...cattle and hogs....we've had poultry for years....

However, if I did have some extra cash...which I don't....I would be buying motorcyle stocks especially Harley Davidson here in Milwaukee Wisconsin. Look at all of the countries across the world...the USA is due a large rise in higher efficiency modes of transportation...namely motorcyles...

So go buy HD stock if you have money to invest...otherwise I recommend breeding livestock that can be eaten and traded as needed.

Pearl B · #**116** 11/23/08, 12:13 AM

[QUOTE
Ummm. . . No. That was Franklin Delano Roosevelt.[/QUOTE]

I disagree, FDR took the gold during the depression. He did so that our paper money would be backed by something of value
Nixon did take us off the gold standard when he realized we had outspent ourselves & fiat currency was the only way to fool the people into believing the current financial/political system still worked. Carter inherited the problems thereof

silverbackMP · #**117** 11/23/08, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by trinityoaks

Ummm. . . No. That was Franklin Delano Roosevelt.

ummm . . . No. That was Nixon.

FDR seized private ownership of gold and then revalued it's worth, effectively giving the gov more money to spend.

Nixon took us completely off the gold standard when, by executive order, the US $ was no longer backed by gold. Prior to this, countries could demand payment in gold for US debt. Nixon Quote "Its our currency, but it is their problem."

two_barking_dogs · #**118** 11/23/08, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by texican

Grid electric's still up. Internet up. TV stations up. No Zombies. No gunfire in the distance (well, 'some', it IS hunting season)...

This is the way that I call it also. While the stores are still stocked. The gas stations still sell gas. Basically while everything is still normal with the supply chain then we have Not hit a SHTF environment.

And yes: When you hear so much gunfire in the distance that it sounds like you are in a war, you are.

.