The grain bubble

Well, currently we like to bandy about how ethanol is going to save the world and free us from dependence on oil, yet the politicians and pundits conveniently forget that all that corn which produces the ethanol is still grown with gasoline. It drives the tractors, moves the corn to the distilleries, moves the ethanol to the distribution stations, and drives all the people who are involved in the distilling process to work. As of yet, there hasn't been one sustainable demonstration where ethanol can produce a closed loop system and become a renewable resource. My guess is that there never will be. It goes against all of the laws of entropy.

Rambler, you say it's unfortunate that our school education is so poor and that it leads to people being easily misled. I propose to you a different hypothesis:

Our public educational infrastructure is so poor BECAUSE it makes people easy to mislead.

I agree - the dumbing down of American children is "on purpose" - not by accident.

Does that mean that all the "information" put out by the ethanol industry as well as theNCGA is totally unbiased as well as factual? A recent report from Tyler Bowles, Professor of Economics, Utah State University, concluded with "The government ethanol subsidy and production program probably has had net negative consequences for the U.S. economy; certainly it has conferred large gains on some and large costs on others."
If rather than doubling corn prices it had caused a drastic reduction in the prices you receive, would ethanol still have your backing?

I suspect less than 1% of these items use a drop of _gasoline_.


All the studies that are somewhat accurate & account for real-world issues show ethanol to be ~130% efficient at this time and still rising - return more energy BTU than they use in creating them, from planting to sitting in your fuel tank. It would be foolish to try to make heat, high hp, or other such with _only_ ethanol in a closed loop - that would be a poor use of a resource. That is yet another silly comment of no use or meaning. We can compare btus, and we come out with a plus.

Biodiesel systems are closer to ~150%. And also rising.

The corn growers & others can be just as dishonest as anyone else. It would be nice for people who wish to forge ahead with opinions on this to do a little research and dismiss the chaff from the real studies. Sure, both sides have chaff. Certainly.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to put a corn still in Arizona & try to fuel all of Phenix with E-85.

On the other hand, here in MN where we export 1/2 of our corn to somewhere else at great transport cost, we can do better than the average efficiencies above & make a fair portion of our liquid fuels 'here' at less cost than shipping them in from the coasts or Canada. And come out looking pretty good on the equasion.

Ethanol is not _the_ answer.

It can be part of the answer.

We here in the USA, and many other parts of the world, really really like portable fuels. Our country especially is widespread & needs transportation. Bullet electric trains, or bicycles, or electric cars - which are horribly less efficent than ethanol - just doesn't work for much of us.

As such, even if efficiencies are not perfect, tranfering coal or waste pm electical production into ethanol or biodiesel will help give this country the types of power it will need far into the future.

On all those counts, ethanol from corn is doing _something_ to bring positive energy of a type needed to those who need it, and changing our old dependencies to some small degree.

It may be a baby step, and it may be way less than what we need some day.

But it is far more than anything else I have seen come from the nay-sayers?

Those of us in the boonies perhaps need liquid fuels more than the tightly packed city folks, and perhaps can benifit from the more rural production of these products with paychecks or the like.

I would think homesteaders wuold rally around such low but high tech products that do help - in even a small way - our dependence on crude oil.

I'm not against bullet trains/mass transit, nor am I against bicycles. I think electric cars are cool technology.

For the next some years, we need liquid fuels for what we do, or there will be heck to pay.

I hope others can see that, & continue to go forward with positive work to try, rather than just sit around & say well we are doomed, nothing can be done, the govt should do nothing.....

--->Paul

"All the studies that are somewhat accurate & account for real-world issues show ethanol to be ~130% efficient at this time and still rising"

Not all studies show this. I have seen numerous studies which state that, at best, there is a one-to-one ratio in energy used/energy produced. One reason I don't like mass production of ethanol is the amount of water it takes to make one gallon (4 gal water to produce 1 gal ethanol).

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More than that when you consider the amount of water used to grow corn.

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Whether or not alcohol is efficient or not is besides the point. Americans won't worry about raising hunger in the world due to ethanol. If Americans think it's OK to bomb Iraqi women and children so we can take their oil, they won't blink about taking food out of the mouths of African (or whereever) women and children. The ONLY thing that's important is to FILL UP THAT TANK! It's for our economy after all.

Ethanol is a stop gap measure to make sure that the government can fill American's tanks with something, to show that they're doing something. That's because most Americans are too greedy and self-absorbed to realize what's going on in the rest of the world.

What Bush is doing is trying to prevent the chaos and panic that will insue during a real fuel shortfall. We are already starting to see an increase in gasoline related crime. For example, local gangs in the LA area are outfitting cars or vans with special gas tanks that hold 100 gallons or more of gasoline. They use stolen credit cards to fill the tanks, then sell the gas on the street at a slight discount. Imagine going down the road with someone driving right next to you with that kind of bomb. Fuel related crimes will skyrocket in a shortfall.

Here's some examples of what we might see. Your car will get stolen one night while you're asleep. The police will locate it the next day, with a completely dry tank. People will start sleeping in their cars at night, to guard against siphoners. People will get shot dead in the street when caught stealing gas. You'll see women prostituting themselves for a tank of gas, instead of cash.

Fueling the nation with ethanol might be a fools goal, but polititions only think about what will happen before the next election, so everything will be alright. So, for now, just blithely fill that tank on your bloated SUV, because the government has gotten everything taken care of.
Michael

Not quite. There's very little moisture leaving the field in the form of corn. Everything else is still in the water cycle. You might be able to say that with IRRIGATED corn it's being delayed a little bit in the cycle, but it's still going right back into the ground or into the air. For the vast majority of North American corn, like Paul or I grow, the only water involved is what falls from the sky.

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Paul..If you and other grain farmers were not on the government dole, I would fight beside you for your right to invest your time and YOUR money raising any crop you choose. As long as you are taking taxpayers money to support your business, your opinion is tainted and your words must be questioned.

As a rule, farmers have been conditioned to believe themselves elite and largely protected from nature and the swings in the market place. I cannot help reviewing farmers bail outs and compare that to all the construction trade workers and contracters that are being killed by government and market forces not of their making and beyond their control.

Your urging our support for the current ethanol program reflects a hope to continue a fat windfall. You get money from taxes paid by Joe Worker at the same time the power of the government makes him buy the end product at a high price. There is very little of fair American market forces involved in this process...Glen

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I'd rather split atoms to run electric cars and trams and save corn for cornbread, popcorn and hog feed.

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Wow, I never thought about it that way. I am going to the store right now and buy 20, 5 gallon jugs!

I tend to think that our economy and the future is bleak if we don't change our way but isn't this a little far fetched? Maybe not, I hear they do this in Africa right now in order to get a ride to the store.

They've put a large plant in out here to make ethanol. A lot of the farmers promptly switched from alfalfa production to corn production. The cost of alfalfa has doubled. This is having a direct affect on the cost of dairy products.

-- Leva

I doubt if ANY farm machinery runs on any form of gasoline... I'd guess that everything runs off of diesel... I'm familiar with a pretty wide variety of powerful engines, and diesel rules...

And quietstar, should we let American farmers go under, because of circumstances beyond their control (drought or flooding?).... Personally I think it'd be great.... most Americans would starve the next year... the remaining ones would have a great appreciation for farmers after that... Remember this... Farming is the only 'business' that breaks every business rule known... Buy retail and sell wholesale is a recipe for disaster... Ask your banker if he'd give you a loan for your business, operating on the buy retail, sell wholesale model! He'll either laugh at you or ask are you farming?

The whole ethanol fiasco is a 'feel-good' exercise... everyone wants something 'done'.... politicians want to 'do something'... a perfect storm...

Remember the Romans with their 'Bread and Circus's....

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Switching to alfalfa to corn doesn't have the effect you'd think unless you are buying directly from the farm.
Their has been a worldwide increase in demand for our dairy products last year was the first in memory we exported more than we imported, that is the reason for price hikes.
The dairy industry is going quite well with the prices of everything as they are. I haven't seen a drop in prices at the sales barn for replacement cattle, and I haven't seen dairy cows moving through like bull calves and feeder steers or pigs.

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Deja Moo; The feeling I've heard this bull before.

"should we let American farmers go under, because of circumstances beyond their control (drought or flooding?).... "

Why should taxpayers give money (i.e. grants) when their crops fail, especially when these very same farmers have crop insurance. Reminds me of when I was in Tennessee. I had mentioned that the government should not be subsidizing tobacco farmers. Someone told me that the farm had been in their family for six generations and that they couldn't survive without government money. I told them they should switch to a different crop or get out of the farming business. I definately do not support subsidizing non-food crops.

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Texican. your response reveals a silly liberal thought that "farmers" are some kind of special children of God that must be protected from nature and their own folly. Bet you send large checks to Willie Nelson's "family farm aid", although any inquiring mind knows the old fashioned independent "family farm" hasen't existed in decades. I have to ask if you believe contractors and other self reliant American business owners should be allowed to "go under" when ruined by wall street and government "safguard the money moguls" policy. Farmers are for the most part simply spoiled businessman, accustomed to feeding at the USDA trough. Your post compells the question be asked: Are you on USDA payments of some kind? ...Glen

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The effect ethanol will have on the rest of the world is worth considering, and you have a topic that likely has not been studied all that much. I probably disagree with you on this a lot, but - certainly worth the effort to look into. As all people, we should not try to harm others; but take care of ourselves so we are not a burden on the rest of the world. Doing nothing but relying upon crude is, in my opinion, a bad thing, while trying to work out ethanol, biofuel, wind, etc. is a positive step.

Years ago, farmers of the USA were villified as well as the USA in general, because the low crop prices of the 80s & 90s were wrecking the income structure of Mexican farmers. They could not work their way out of poverty because food prices were so low, and it was all the USA's fault, esp USA farmers.

Now, we farmers are blamed for food riots & poor people in Mexico, because we have raised the price of food so much. Mexico is in crisis, and it is all the USA's fault, especially USA farmer's fault.

I see a pattern there.... I'm sure you would see something different than I do, and that is our right.

This is having little to do with homesteading, I gave my opinions for what they are worth, & I think I should wrap up my participation in this tonight.

The world of human beings adapt to what happens around us. Change of any kind means people of the USA and the rest of the world need to change & adapt. And they will. If food prices are real cheap, the poor people can eat cheaper. If food prices are high, than subsistance farmers (the poor!) can make more income & pull themselves up. Things change, but it works out. _It has to_. That is how ying & yang work. People will find their way, if given the oppertunity. There is never a flat line without change. This is just another in the many changes we face every year.

If we convert 1/4 - 1/3 of our crops into fuel, so be it. Other countries would love the higher income and will work to adapt. Most food shortages are political in nature, and has nothing to do with food availabity or cost in any way. With or without ethanol, there is no difference to world hunger.

All of the world's problems are not always my responsibity.

--->Paul

The ethanol plants that cast shadows on my county were all built by farmers & local businessmen, investing their money in the plants. I haven't seen where you have done anything, or risk anything, to try to change the world energy situation?

Perhaps it is you who sits at the trough, waiting for others to give you an answer, rather than helping to solve those problems.

If ethanol is wrong, that will be figured out soon enough. If it is right, you will simply find another way to sit at a trough, and put others down who are actually trying to do something. It's an old game, complain until it works, then complain about someone else....

What were construction workers making in the mid 1970s? What are they making today?

Crop prices to this day have never come back to the highs we had in the late 1960 & early 1970s. And if adjusted for inflation, beans would be around $36 a bu, corn would be $13 a bu. These 'record highs' we have today, beans are around $12, corn around $5. It's a joke.

Would your poor construction workers like to have their job for 1/3 of the paycheck they are getting, or for less than what their dads were getting in the 1970s? Directly because of a governmet action? The rioting, the strikes of the unions... You've got to be joking. YTou have no concept of what the govt did to agriculture, and continues to do.

I will agree with you on the principle - it would be lovely if we could do something, move in a direction without govt subsidies. Crude oil has subsidies. Pipelines & rail & electric transmission lines have had century or more of subsidies. How is ethanol supposed to compete against that, on it's own???? How are windmills, or photovoltics, or any flavor of your choice, supposed to compete?

Your way, we have to use up all oil, wait for the bad things to happen, & then invest money & time into something new, work out all the flaws & delivery - after the disaster happens.

What a non-plan that is!

How are we to change our ways, if there is not govt subsidy to anything new, but the old ways have had, and continue to have, much subsidy? That is the worst thing I have heard. It is a disaster. Your way is a stick in the mud - continue doing what we do until it runs out.

I understand your _concept_ and I agree with it on paper. It does not, will not, and cannot be allowed to happen in the real world!

Solar crystals, windmill power, nuclear power - it all gets mega govt subsidies. Are you opposed to these as well, or is that ok because it isn't given to fat farmers???????

Your words ring hollow, when they are examined. You have a principle (and a fine one) but you apply it lop-sided and unfairly and in a way that would forever hamstring new technology.

I would agree with your prinicples, if they were applied equally to everyone - yourself included!

I won't hold my breath.

As I mentioned, I think we are drifting this off homesteading and I shall move on to other topics. My problem with this thread was the use of old, outdated, and proven wrong material that should _not_ be used any more. I would hope folks can argue for or against new energy conecpts without having to lie about their side of things.

Global human theory & how we should fund new ideas is a different agrument for a different place.

Thanks all, I enjoy this topic, and questioning things is always good. I'll probably talk about it again when it comes up again in a few months.

--->Paul

LOL farmers making the big bucks....
Have you campared the cost of their inputs say from a year ago?
They're just passing bigger amounts on to other people.
Land rent and prices are astronomical. (At a public auction today by Boyden, IA a 65ac parcel of farm ground sold for $9010/acre)
Fertilizer is headed towards 700 a ton if you can get it.
Fuel is 3.50 a gallon.
Herbicides aren't cheap (haven't priced those this week yet).
Seed is volitile, heard quotes of 220 for a 50 pound bag od corn. Bean seed is in short supply from what I've heard so prices there are high.
Even used tractor prices are up from where they were 6 months ago.
It isn't the farmer getting rich. It isn't the farmer driving up the prices.
Ethanol plays a part but exports have been steady and at pretty good numbers too.

It would be nice to have the govt out of the picture, I'm sure most farmers would agree. But if you really dislike the idea of corporate farms you should be glad the govt is in there keeping a floor on prices so everybody can stay in more or less.
I'm not sure how the crop stuff works but the MILC used to be capped at a million pounds a year. So bigger did not mean more money.
As for comparing farmers to contractors, I don't think that's a very good comparison at all. Whole different ball game.

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Deja Moo; The feeling I've heard this bull before.

I've never sent money to anyone, Willie, Mother Teresa, or the NRA... nobody.

Farming is special... follow this closely, again... Farming is the Only Business, that buys retail, and sells wholesale. Name another business that does this.

I doubt you'll ever find another person as hard hearted as I can be, when it comes to civilization... I think I mentioned before that I wish the govt. would let all the farmers, corporate, big, small, whatever size, fall and fail... Let just one year of no crops be grown. Let all the cities fall into dust. Let the skies be dark at night... dark enough to see the Milky Way every night.

Unfortunately, the politicians have always had a policy (misguided or not?) of providing cheap and easily accessible food to it's citizens. Instead of my scenario (mass starvation of the folks who don't have "dirt under their fingernails" >>>those that grow their own food) where farming in this country would be allowed to disappear, they are propped up with subsidies and have cheap (subjective point) crop insurance.

If the Jiffy Lube goes under, most folks can change their own oil... it's not rocket science. If farms go under, people starve.... especially city slickers and unproductive members of society...

Spoiled businessmen, eh? I almost blew my soup out when I read this... (I eat supper while browsing)... Yep, spoilt rotten, several hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of machinery, for a small farm, maybe a million in land, and the bank owns most of it, unless your lucky enough to inherit. Farmers, ranchers, and dairymen around here drive vehicles to they fall apart... the only ones that get a new rig every 5 years or so, are the ones that oil or gas royalties...

Plow all day in a dusty un airconditioned tractor cab, or go cabless, and eat dust all day, while plowing a pasture or bushhogging, which I've done hundreds of times... gee, I never knew I was spoilt! Woohoo!!!

I stopped after one season, trying to make money farming... I lost my shirt... luckily I didn't gamble the entire farm on it... all I had was a couple hundred in seed, couple hundred in fertilizer and about the same in diesel... I learnt my lesson...

The bestest farmers/ranchers I know work out at the 'mines'... they can afford new tractors, equipment, barns, equipment, high bred stock... all because they make >70k a year.

Again... I'm all for letting em fail! Bwahahahahahaaa... One season of going hungry... no snack foods, no steak, no taters, no vegan food, no nothin... Most everyone living in an urban area would suddenly learn everything there is to know about farming, or they'd starve.

btw... I receive no payments of any sort from USDA or Uncle Sam...

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Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival. W. Edwards Deming