2 ????s: Is recession coming? How will it affect your homesteading?

The minimum wage is set at the federal level. States may have higher minimums, but not lower.

The minimum wage in Kansas is $2.65/hr.

http://www.dol.gov/esa/minwage/america.htm

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Uh, quoting from the sentence directly atop the U.S. map at that site:

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates

Is recession coming?

Someday. In some places it is already here. The economy varies tremendously with geographic location. What we consider a good living would be recession, depression or poverty in other places - especially urban areas used to a lot more services.

Economic changes affect different areas differently. The Great Depression didn't make as much of a dent in life in many rural areas that were not dependent on big businesses and heavy metal farming. Something to watch out for - what you're dependent on vs what is a luxury.

I do suspect things will get worse. But they'll also get better. It goes up and down. If anything, the peaks and valleys are not as bad as they were 70 to 80 years ago.

How will it affect your homesteading?

We already produce most of our own food, all our heat, use little electric and are dependent on less than we use, use no no natural gas or propane, little diesel (tractor ~40 g/yr? now), drive very little for personal needs, etc. Not much the way of town services. We have our own water supply, septic system, etc so we're not paying out monthly fees for that sort of thing. Our biggest personal annual expense is real estate taxes - that will be the scramble. Its happened before and we got through it.

We live carefully and know what are necessities vs luxuries. If the economy sours we would cut luxuries like the occasional dinner out, buying a DVD movie, no reef aquarium purchases for me, no new capital purchases for our farm, etc. Fix it up, make do or do without. We don't have TV, subscriptions, cable, etc. The last cut I would make is the phone/Internet. That is our biggest form of connectivity with the world and it would be a shame to lose it - I would strive to keep it.

Like you we farm - pastured pigs mostly. Fortunately we don't buy commercial feed. That would be a huge expense. We do buy winter hay and that is a pretty big annual expense. Theoretically I could cut hay from the north field but it is steep. Right now hay is cheaper to buy. We have proven in some years that we can do all our farming from inputs only on our land - except the winter hay. We may be able to barter for some of the hay.

Normally we get free animal feed in the form of excess dairy, spent barley from local dairies and brewers, etc. A recession might pinch them which would these things unavailable. In that case I would cut our herds down to a level that is sustainable just on pasture and what I can grow. I have thought about this a lot, have it planned out and have been working for years at learning what things we can easily grow to supplement the pasture into the winter.

Our farm sales are to all levels of society - from people who want to raise their own pigs buying piglets to people buying half or whole pigs to people buying retail to cook dinner to people who eat our pork at high class restaurants. This is purposeful to try and recession proof ourselves to a degree. Economic strife tends to affect different groups differently. The first group might actually expand during a depression as more people seek to raise more of their own food.

The biggest expenses on our farm are butchering and delivery. The driving we do for our delivery route every other weeks would be strongly affected by increased fuel costs. We drive a Econoline 250 retrofitted as "The Pig Mobile" to take pigs to the butcher in the cargo space and then to deliver meat to stores, restaurants, etc. It's about $100 per trip - unfortunately the butchers are all one hour from us (2 hour round trip) in three different directions. Fortunately the van is paid for and in good condition. The savings we made on getting it almost for free (cargo vans don't have much resale market apparently) goes a long ways to paying for years worth of gas. A smaller vehicle wouldn't do the job - we just outgrew, and literally drove into the ground, our 15 year old mini-van that we have used for a decade. Other than that we have very little other driving - we combine our trips carefully, usually with the delivery trips.

The butchering itself is our single highest farm cash expense. The butcher fees take about 1/3rd of the gross sales. One solution to the butcher and part of the driving problem is setting up our own processing plant for slaughter and butchering. The time I would save not driving is almost enough to do the slaughter as well as part of the butchering. It's on the list of potential projects for a lot of reasons. Ideally it won't have to happen soon but I am already working on researching this. I know how to do the work but the permits and setup will take time.

Farm insurance is another big expense. If things got rough enough I would drop most or all of it. We've been without insurance before. *shrug* In a depression it may become moot as the insurance companies go belly up.

Mortgage is an issue. We still have a little left but we're paying it down fast. That is were almost all our money goes right now after basic necessities. A depression would slow down the rate at which we could pay it down since less extra money would be coming in. If I see it coming I may sell some land to finish paying the mortgage off. Something I really would rather not do as we want to keep the land but do would if necessary.

We don't work off the homestead. Just our farming, my wife's portraits, a little stuff I do, logging. Diversified. Thus we're not dependent on an outside job that may or may not be there if rough times hit. The idea of being dependent on a single income source from an uncontrollable employer was never appealing so I've not had that issue. Likewise, we always have several pots on the stove. The idea is that one or more will always carry us through hard times and usually they all simmer along nicely and at least take care of us.

Most of all I expect change with time. There will be good times and bad times. The people most affected tend to be the middle class near the edge. Homesteading puts you at an advantage. Having land is a good investment because you can live there, get fuel for heat, grow food, raise livestock, etc. We joke that all our stock is out grazing our other asset.

Cheers

-Walter
Sugar Mountain Farm
in the mountains of Vermont
http://SugarMtnFarm.com/blog/
http://HollyGraphicArt.com/
http://NoNAIS.org

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SugarMtnFarm.com -- Pastured Pigs, Poultry, Sheep, Dogs and Kids

Except for tipped jobs: http://www.dol.gov/esa/programs/whd/state/tipped.htm

Very sad to think about. A lot of single mothers must be having a rough time of it.

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Yup, $2.65 an hour. Someone was talking about KS not having jobs. Not true. Wichita is actually KS' biggest town. Everyone thinks KC is but actually it's bigger on the MO side. Aircraft manufacturing is at an all time high. We are desperately short on people who can assemble the sheetmetal parts, cnc machinists, etc. Too many people who move here aren't from America. Lots of Indian, Samoan, Muslim, and Asian peoples are here. I forgot to add Mexican as well. Those people have ZERO work skills so they're the ones that work at the bottom of the barrel while most of us are trying to get jobs that pay more but finding out we have to go back to school for it. Most people don't want to so it's their loss. I'm going back to school soon.

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Ted H

You may all go to Hell, and I will go to Texas.
-Davy Crockett

That pretty much sums up what I was going to say. Recession is always coming AGAIN, eventually... that's history, folks. Better question: is depression coming? In my lifetime, I expect to see one, yeah. But I don't know when that'll be. Maybe in the near future, maybe not.

How will it affect your homesteading?

A recession? Not much. Maybe step up the timing of implementing some new projects. Feds will likely lower interest rates again and the housing market is in the toilet, making it a good time to tackle our plan for a major house renovation/remodel and barn repair/addition.

A depression? Even more projects, faster. No house renovation. Would do barn repair, but maybe not the barn addition.

My definition of homesteading is living with no modern amenities, so a recession would help the homesteading process

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http://lownfamilymaplesyrup.com/ max@lownfamilymaplesyrup.com
Professional Tool. 1220 Woodmere Ave,Traverse City, MI. 49686. 231-941-8003. http://professionaltool.com/

Is a recession coming?

I think so. A depression? Can't say, but if the economy continues to tank, seems like a possibility.

How does it change my life? I'm more hyper-aware of expenses and the necessity that the in-flow of cash exceed the out-flow.

I left a corporate job in February, and now instead of one pot of money we have several, including freelance writing (me), part-time work at a restaurant in town (her) and ginseng hunting (over $700 for a pound - dried - this year!). Our intention is to make a living, not a profit, and we seem to be doing that successfully. We also grow vegetables, keep bees and hunt, meeting the bulk of our food needs. And, we don't have children, have kept our debt manageable (payments on the loan for house construction - we are doing the work ourselves - is paid through the rent at our old home. We currently live in a trailer we purchased for $500.)

Recession, depression or things stay the same, our homesteading life remains a balancing act. We constantly review our financial situation and homesteading goals. If the economy crumbles, we will have to make adjustments, I'm sure. I'm fairly confident that we can and will. What choice is there?

Besides, I have to admit that it's kind of fun to wonder if we could do this
FOR REAL if there were a depression (I bet I'm not the only one on here who plays these "what if?" games). Not that this isn't real, of course, but we have a lot of options that might not exist under those circumstances. For instance, if we need more cash now, I spend more time in the office and write more articles. In a depression, who can say whether the freelance opportunities would be available? I suspect media organizations would clamp down on budgets and cut the freelance budget almost immediately, and that many of the glossy magazines and niche publications would fold.

I guess the similiarity I see most here is what I would call conscious living. It looks to me like most of the posters so far will be far less affected by a low economic point than many of the "keep up with the Joneses" crowd, simply because this group has already THOUGHT OUT the consequences of their economic decisions, rather than just having a cavalier attitude about them. Even though everyone is coming from different perspectives, the bedrock seems to be the same among us all:

-- live within, or ideally below, your means;
-- pay down any debt as fast as you can;
-- make use of resources already available to you;
-- do things for yourself;
-- weigh the true cost of purchases.

That kind of thing. We all seem to grasp those same concepts.

Highlands, I do have to comment on your postulation that the Great Depression did not make as much of an impact on rural farms. My inlaws dairy farmed back then, and found the squeeze two ways: fewer customers for their milk route (back in the day when it was legal for a farmer to sell you his own bottled milk), and a lack of capital for farm help, which was much more necessary in those less-mechanized days. My MIL talks of men showing up at the back door, and being totally unschooled in farm matters, but they would try to put them to work doing something for a day so they could feed them and send them on their way.

My dad's family became a part of the "Grapes of Wrath" migrant movement, going to Washington from Iowa as jobs dried up in the Midwest. My grandpa and the family eventually picked their way to a tenant farm, but bad weather made a terrible potato harvest, and grandpa left to work a hay crew for cash to sustain the family through winter. They let them off at the end of the season just before a big snowstorm, far from home, and he walked all the way home in that snow and cold. Dad said he still recalls seeing him trudge up the farm lane that day he got there. He looked near death, his face was black, and he walked in the house and laid directly down in bed and had fever and chills and his skin slewing off for days, with grandma taking care of him, til he finally pulled through. They had no money for the doctor.

So yes, it was bad in the rural areas, too. While country folks perhaps were better able to live in tough times because they survived often closer to the edge, they also had the thinnest cushion against the vagaries of weather and economy of anyone. Many suffered unmercifully.

My MIL says that in the Depression, they had no money for farm help, and by the time that was ending, WW II started and they had no farm help cuz all the men and boys were overseas.

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates

Don't even try to compare the 30's depression to what it would be like in this country today. Those that think the land will take care of them will be surprised that the gov't will still want their tax money and probably sooner and more of it if things slow down. The haves will not go without and services is what they'll want. Houses even in the rural areas are not set up like they were in the 30's. I drove around for miles the other day lookin for chimneys, not many to be found as most everything around here is heat pumps. Energy costs can and will force many out from rural areas as the only way they can afford their place is with their job 20-50 miles away.

Even for someone with no debt and controlled spending habits like myself and my family the impact will be great. A portion of my savings will drop in the investments I have just like almost everyone else that's in a 401K. My job will slow down or stop and I'll have to use my physical skills to try and earn money and barter from others that have money or something to barter. Chances are the ones with money will not be out in the rural areas and traveling to them might be too expensive.

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"Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self confidence"
Robert Frost

if you are dirt poor now, how much worse can it get for some people?

Ive lived cold and eating out of dumpsters before with no electricity, i dunno how worse life can get than that.

I guess it could get worse if there were more people feeding out of that same Dumpster ...

Yes, I'd have to agree, and especially if they are all armed.

On Beeman's point, I don't think we'll have to worry about a U.S. government, should we have a '30s style Depression again. It will simply cease to exist as we know it, dragged down by the mass of its own suddenly unserviceable debt. I literally hope and pray my time will come before we are a wholly-owned subsidiary of China...but I dunno. Even at reasonably short longevity, it seems more likely I will actually see it.

That whole scenario makes for some weird possibilities. In it, the U.S. cannot pay its debt service, so it raises taxes, which of course taxpayers can't pay because of the lack of money due to the depression. The government seizes their lands for back taxes, then has to turn them increasingly over mainly to the Asian Rim as payment to avoid default, because U.S. paper currency has lost its value due to the depression. The U.S. government runs hard to stay afloat, but eventually collapses under the accelerating weight of its debt. Most land is now in the hands of foreigners, used as payment of government debt or sold outright by cash-starved people and corporations. The country is taken over without an old-school war, but instead by the the new-school war it won't now even admit is going on - economics.

So if this scenario would happen, even folks like me who are running hard as we can to pay off and "own" our land would become landless.

We'll all be in that Dumpster with comfortablynumb!

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates

We're already in a reccession, that clear. Where headed down the path to a depression, and its just a matter of time before we arrive.

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Ehh, whatever.

I'm curious as to what are "modern amenities"?

What I had said was "he Great Depression didn't make as much of a dent in life in many rural areas that were not dependent on big businesses and heavy metal farming."

The Great Depression had a lot less effect on people, both individuals and farms, that didn't have these dependencies. Most farms around here were, and still are, very small. The don't usually have hired help like your grandmother's dairy. Vermont was very poor back then, and still is relatively poor outside the cities, compared with the rest of the nation. People produced much of what they used and the Depression was more a distant thing. This was also true for many other similar areas from the oral history I know and from the reading I've done on the topic.

On the other hand, places that were more dependent interlocking business interests, had debt (such as for heavy metal - eg. equipment) and in the urban areas they suffered greatly. The poor didn't invest in the stock markets which crashed and thus didn't lose there. The rural poor mostly already knew how to take care of themselves - they were homesteading.

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SugarMtnFarm.com -- Pastured Pigs, Poultry, Sheep, Dogs and Kids

During the depression poor folks stayed poor but many lost their farms and homes. On the other hand it was a classic case of the rich got richer. Always remember the philosophy of buy low. The ones with the money will be able to buy low. China might own some of our debt but if you keep following the money I'd say major US investors own a lot of China.

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"Education is the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or your self confidence"
Robert Frost

My mother's family was a household of 13 during the Great Depression. They lived outside of Philadelphia in rental houses with huge yards, so they always had chickens, eggs, and vegetables. They canned a tremendous amout, that carried them through the winters. My mother and her brothers have said that nothing was EVER bought. The only cash they had was a $32/month check to my mother's step-grandfather who was a Civil War veteran, and part of the household. Other relatives joined them from time to time. I can't imagine extended families getting along well enough today to do this! OK, maybe just not mine of this decade! ldc

Agreed, Ron Paul scares the snot out of me also. He has alot more old history and opinons than those he is running this campaign on. He didn't just appear out of nowhere, and like Bush a Texan.

Lucky here because we are self supporting and own what we have. But then at 50 likely older and started earlier than most. I would have to get off my duff and garden bigger, let the luxuries fall to the wayside as needed, and milk does who would be way peeved off there was no grain anymore! Bartering what we know and what we have like always would be the MO.

It's utopic to think about easier times, less of everything, but in reality the folks in the city of millions next to me isn't going to just dissappear, this will be the scarry part of any wide spread depression.

Ive done a year off grid, and many days and weeks between then and now with hurricanes and storms...knowing it can be done and already having the tools is a relief. Vicki

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Vicki McGaugh
Nubian Soaps
North of Houston TX
www.etsy.com/shop/nubiansoaps

A 3 decade dairy goat farm homestead that is now a retail/wholesale soap company and construction business.

Vicki, I got yer back if you got mine on Ron.

I like how everyone assumes to homestead you have to have a farm. My maternal grandparents, during the depression, raised rabbits, goats and a huge garden. Each of the kids was in charge of the livestock. Ma said she got so tired of eating rabbit, it wasn't even funny. Grandpa made wine for resale and home use, and he raised a huge garden as big as his whole backyard til the year before he died.

They did all this smack dab in the city. Grandpa, unemployed, would walk along the railroad tracks for miles to pick up coal that fell off the cars to heat with in those days. But they managed to pay off the house, and didn't lose it...and that with 6 kids!

My grandma didn't give up her Maytag wringer washer til the '70s. Every wash day was tubs and the wringer.

Why did they do all that? THEY WERE POOR!

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates