The market crash

My portfolio is still moving up. The Dow doesn't mean everything is down.

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Alice
* * *
"No great thing is created suddenly." ~Epictitus

Really?

Wow, I hope that does not happen too frequently for you.

What is the average rent levels in your area? and how do your rent levels compare?

I don't like admitting it, but I do play the futures market, albeit in a very small way. Sometimes I get burned, but not often. I don't really follow market trends, other than the commodity I play, and keeping track isn't too tough, even without a tv or radio or paper or internet research, as it's advertised almost everywhere one goes...

See, it works like this: when I have a few extra dollars in my pocket, I either fill the spare gas can, or wait if I think the price is gonna dip. Most of the time, I can save anywhere between a quarter and a dollar by filling it as the price first starts to rise, so that next time the car needs gas, I'm still paying for the first 5 gallons at a lower price... If I have it calculated right, with my savings, I can now purchase another gas can and double my investment strategy (when I have the extra cash to fill both). Hey, it's better than money in the bank or in stocks because: there are no commission fees, the average return on investment is far greater, and I can make 'withdrawals' 24/7 as needed.

The only other market I'd play, would be the supermarket... stock up on stuff on sale, and keep it stocked, because I just don't see any market really making significant moves that will make an investment now a 'poor' investment later, so long as it is something you'll actually use. Matter of fact, either commodity could become very valuable should the import market get squeezed, or should the dollar fall significantly in value against other currencies, both of which are very real possibilities as a long term hedge - short term, it's nearly impossible to tell as there are a lot of vested interests in keeping the "status quo", though I don't think the illusion of "the great and powerful wizard of markets" is gonna keep everyone bamboozled much longer: the writing is getting pretty clear on lots of walls, and sooner or much, much sooner, we are going to economically hit one.

I have to admit that the last gas price spike this week caught me off guard, but I see that chicken is on sale at the market, and would be just as good an investment to put the extra dollars there until the price of gas either goes further up, or comes back down. Come what may, I can always eat chicken and walk or ride bike, even when gas and chickens aren't available for public consumption (no military leader ever let his army starve in a time of war, regardless of what happens to his citizens), but I can't very well put 87 octane in the stew pot when the fridge and pantry are empty.

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Of all the evils that have befallen the earth, the worst is the desire of men to profit one from another. (Book of Andy 3:1)

I jumped into my trousers and shoes this morning, and then went and made some money today. Woo Hoo

oh, one more thing:one more thing - (nothing like some documentation on the 'fundamentals' of the market, however, I do NOT think their conclusion of "managed futures" is a good 'safehaven'). (FWIW)

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Of all the evils that have befallen the earth, the worst is the desire of men to profit one from another. (Book of Andy 3:1)

Or maybe this guy's got it right


http://www.cnbc.com/id/17306034

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I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it."
Thomas Jefferson

I Think good investments are things people will always need, electricity, Water,propane. Questar has been good to me.

As of today, 30 major mortgage lending companies have gone under since December, 2006. Monday should be interesting. The housing bubble collapse is huge.

Things are getting worse fast:

"A report from the New York Times. “Federal prosecutors and securities regulators are investigating stock sales and accounting errors at the New Century Financial Corporation, the biggest mortgage company that specializes in lending to people with weak, or subprime, credit, the company disclosed in a corporate filing yesterday.”

“The company also warned that a delay in filing its financials may put vital financing into jeopardy. New Century wrote $33.9 billion in mortgages last year. New Century now appears to be facing a credit crunch similar to the one it encountered in the late 1990s.”

From MarketWatch. “New Century Financial Corp. said late Friday that it’s facing a federal criminal probe and will likely breach a major lending covenant with its financial backers, bringing into question the survival of the second-largest U.S. subprime-mortgage lender.”

“The mortgage lender said it expects that it won’t report at least $1 of net income for the two quarters ended Dec. 31, as stipulated in covenants with its lenders.”

“‘Subprime lenders without deposits depend on their warehouse lines,” said analyst Zack Gast. ‘If New Century’s lenders do not grant the requested waivers, the company is likely to be forced to sell or shut down.’”

“Indeed, New Century warned that if it can’t get waivers or covenant amendments from enough of its financial backers, the company’s auditor, KPMG, will conclude ‘that substantial doubt exists as to the company’s ability to continue as a going concern.’”

The LA Times. “Federal regulators have leveled civil accusations against the No. 2 independent sub-prime lender, Fremont General Corp. of Santa Monica. Fremont disclosed Friday in an SEC filing that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. would sanction its bank subsidiary, Brea-based Fremont Investment & Loan, for failing to control the risks inherent in sub-prime lending and in its second major business, commercial real estate construction loans . . .”

So far, in what I'm learning, the safer the investment, the less you stand to make or loose from it. Higher risk can equal more money ....or less money.

This week however, even the "brains" on Wall Street haven't been able to agree on just what is happening. When, IF, the market calms down .... there will be safe investments again; but for now, it's anybodys guess where to put your money.

__________________
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it."
Thomas Jefferson

Do I hear the voice of 'Chicken Little' ?

Said the ostrich.

LOL

I do not have any stock. I have MFRs.

Our TSP (401K for federal employees) is invested conservatively, so I'm not worried. I've never even looked at it except for the year-end statement they send.

We do need a different kind of investment vehicle, though. We're thinking about rental property -- those that do this, did you read up on it or do some other research before you jumped in? Now that DH's paid hours are being reduced to normal levels and mine are inching up to compensate, managing property elsewhere might be doable. Sure couldn't do it when he worked 6 10-hour days a week.

Bock bock bock ..... the sky COULD fall down! (but I doubt it's gonna happen). I bought into several good stocks that suffered a fall in price allowing even a broke man like me to get a chance with the big boys ....We'll see what happens.

It's ALL gambling. Kiss the dice, close your eyes and get'er done!!!!!

__________________
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it."
Thomas Jefferson

LOL

Well my renters made their payments okay.

It has been a long time since a renter was short his rent money. An even longer time since the last time that I was short for the mortgage payment, and had to spend any of my money.

So I do not think that this 'crash' effected us.

I trade OEX options with my own timing system, went long on the 1st and will add to it Monday morning. I love the options, there's no investment vehicle that offers the potential of options but they are volatile and not for long term investment. I also like the ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds), especially the leveraged funds that move 2X the market, you can go long or short, symbols for the S&P 500 are SSO (long) SDS (short).

Here are my signals for the last month, if anybody is interested I would be glad to post them at the end of the day, no guarantees but it has worked well for me if you stay on top of it and pick your entries and exits with caution.

Here are my signals for the last month.

SSO (S&P 500)

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close*
2-Mar-07 83.13 83.77 81.50 81.50 450,100 81.50
buy1-Mar-07 81.37 84.65 81.00 83.88 546,300 83.88
28-Feb-07 83.70 85.43 82.85 84.10 473,200 84.10
flat27-Feb-07 87.96 87.96 81.43 82.51 682,800 82.51
26-Feb-07 90.54 90.54 89.05 89.71 120,900 89.71
23-Feb-07 90.23 90.23 89.45 89.94 110,900 89.94
sell22-Feb-07 90.85 91.12 89.74 90.43 58,200 90.43
flat21-Feb-07 90.45 90.74 89.79 90.59 104,400 90.59
20-Feb-07 90.23 90.94 89.54 90.76 108,500 90.76
sell16-Feb-07 90.10 90.44 89.88 90.33 57,700 90.33
flat15-Feb-07 90.28 90.64 90.05 90.35 19,200 90.35
14-Feb-07 89.50 90.55 89.30 90.37 157,000 90.37
buy13-Feb-07 88.17 89.02 88.17 89.02 142,800 89.02
flat12-Feb-07 88.37 88.63 87.34 87.67 103,900 87.67
9-Feb-07 89.62 90.00 87.61 88.41 136,800 88.41
sell8-Feb-07 89.42 89.76 88.83 89.47 88,600 89.47
flat7-Feb-07 89.74 90.11 89.29 89.65 83,600 89.65
6-Feb-07 89.50 89.71 88.85 89.34 108,700 89.34
5-Feb-07 89.40 89.57 88.84 89.34 66,700 89.34
sell2-Feb-07 89.45 89.60 89.02 89.46 86,200 89.46
1-Feb-07 88.73 89.34 88.38 89.16 143,600 89.16

We've been investing in the stock market heavily the last two months. Just last weekend, we took a business trip to Missouri, to talk with the CEO of Ozark Jewels International. We were so pleased with Emily's presentation, we invested in three shares of her dairy stock (and two males). We've also bought new stock in a worm ranch, and half a dozen new lines of breeding poultry stock.

So far, no dips or losses... all of our stock is growing leaps and bounds.

sorry for the humor... (ok, not really)
I prefer land as an investment...the rawer the better.

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Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. Seneca
Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival. W. Edwards Deming

The stock market will stay up until all the "Baby boomer's" Start to take the their money out of the 401K's and IRA's. You all have propped the market and it will continue for about 8 more years. Then the hammer will fall. See the stock market is flush with cash; Not profit.

Due to the fact that I'm rather young I'm wait'in for the fall to buy at half price. What we have here is a cash balloon........It will pop.

uranium,,,,,,,,,,,,you can get newsletters, advice from guys that know for like $75 bucks a year but you still have to be careful........ have a friend that turned 85k into 200k in 4 years..

My family's had property and houses for rent for the last 85 or so years. IF you get good renters and IF they pay on time and IF they don't totally destroy your property ...you can make some money. It has been my experience that you'll have a "run" of good renters and a "run" of bad renters ....just like the market...But you're gambling on the quality of renter instead of the quality of a company.
Good luck with it and I hope you have a looong run of quality renters.

__________________
I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty than to those attending too small a degree of it."
Thomas Jefferson