Housing prices....
 

Not to hijack another post but I have a question: what do you guys think about housing and farm land prices? Looking at the latest news about US deficit and the fact that nothing is made here (see China, India, etc.). Looking at the disaster waiting to happen with the reset of variable mortgages and incresed defaults (foreclosures). Looking at the builder incentives of over $100,000 :help: ( http://www.pulteplus.com/index1.htm ); what is your opinion? Are wwe going into the right direction? Let's not make a left and right issue, please.

I had to edit for spelling!

I think land prices in the PNW are crazy high. The farmland in the Treasure Valley (Boise area)of Idaho is insane. Last Thanksgiving, I drove the highway from Homedale to I-84, about 15 miles and every single farm had a for sale sign--It was all going for residential or industrial. Farms that 2 years ago would have been under $2k/acre is going for 10-20k/acre. Good ground that will never grow crops again.

One can not affords to farm in my area, yet they keep trying. They grow corn and soy beans. They already lost all their profit on seeding.

The reason they crow corn and soy, is because everyone else dose. I have a close personal freind that leased over 9000 acres of land. He did this for over 10 years after taking over from his father that did it for 35 years.

He sold out. He sold his equipment for more then he yearned in the last 10 years and IT WAS GIVEN TO HIM.

I asked him. That big a multi million dollar farm, WHY did you grow corn? His response " lance everyone around here grows corn dad did as well".

Now he is on his own 88 acres that he ownes. As of this am. HE IS PROFITING MORE THEN EVER IN HIS LIFE. Its also only his first year on his own land.

He was a full time farmer with many hired hands, but once he was on his own 8 acres, he had to figure out how to feed his 3 yound kids wife and sick father.

His 88 acres is still full time with one hired hand, YET he works full time on his land. Earning more then with 9k acres in the past.

He sure isn't growing any corn.

Its the same reason why you and you neibore have black shingled roofs. No one has the cherries to get a blue shingled roof.

This same farmer watched as I did this am at a local action 3.9 acres agricuture zoned land sell for 3.7 million dollars. 3.9 acres he used to lease for 100 a acre a year.

If you want to play around in corn and beans, you will go broke and be a asset to the government. That simple.

Land in this area is out the wall. Big time.

MY OWN FARM WAS OUTLAWED. I had to move my sheep and take down my fences on land zoned agricuture. I was ticketed 1k a day for 120 days. I have court at 1345 today. They are trying to anex my farm. The city can not grow south with out it. I will know today if I owe 120k in fines and lost my farm to money.

Small farmers and home steaders like us have to use our land for maximum profits and substance.

There is a huge differance in the amount of work and investment to farm 10k acres with a net profit of 140k a year or deal with your 20 acres and net 65k a year. What one sounds like a better deal?

thiught they out lawed eminent domain - or was it just here in AZ

We have a vibrant city nearby with an arsenal that is getting an influx of relocated military jobs coming from D.C. Land prices have tripled in my rural county near that city over the past 2 years, and I just talked to an agent who told me, "Buy land now and you'll pay way more than you think it is worth. Hold it a year, and you'll sell it for way more than you thought you could get."

For farming purposes, it is overpriced. You can get an acre of good black Midwestern soil for that they are selling rocky, poor hill land for here now. But when you compare the value to what these folks are selling their houses for in DC to move here, it's cheap. Sell 2,000 sf house on a quarter acre up there, come here and buy 3,000 sf on 10-20 acres and have a hill of cash left over.

The only ones who lose are those of us already living here. LOL.

No. Many states have passed laws to curb the use of eminent domain for private development in the light of the Supreme Court Kelo decision. But eminent domain is definitely not outlawed anywhere.

See this video and draw conclusions...
 

http://streaming.americanprogress.or...0.240.mp4.html

You will convince your self about the state of our economy from the standpoint of housing, home ownership and land development. As responsible stewards of your farms, what is your decision? You pack up and move? Let the big developers slap some more McMansions on your homestead?
The video is long, I hope you will be able to see it; it was recorded during a conference in November 2006 by Center for American Progress.

Its really a shame to see lots of farmers pack up. The good news is that the housing bubble is coming to and end. Subprime load defaults are soaring which should end the surge in credit expansion as lenders start cutting back on lending. This will put an end to new construction (probably for a very long time.)

The other good news is that food prices are on the rise. Because of world wide droughts, the biofuels boondangle, there might be grain shortages soon causing prices too soar (well good for farmers, bad for urbanites that are going to pay more). If fuels prices climb back up it was also hurt food imports, futher driving up food costs.


Thats a terrible shame! Your best option is to move somewhere else. Perhaps you can sell your land at a premium to a developer and relocate to another rural area. I don't think its worth the battle to remain. I would see if you can work out a deal to get your fines dropped, on the promise that you put up your land for sale so the town and put up subdivisions, condos or whatever it pleases and if they don't agree, you will continue to fight it out which could tie up your land for years. I suspect the town has "plans" for your land and thats why the suddenly made your farm "illegal".


I think it will remain difficult to sustain a large commerical farm. Fuel prices, agro-chemicals will continue to go up as oil, gas and other cheap energy supplies begin to deplete. Washington's again meddling with labor laws will make it difficult to hire foriegners as farm hands, and there are few young americans that will choose to farm, when they can go get much easier jobs with more pay. Net 65K (assuming after taxes) is a very good income. The average family incoming is only about $56K/year. Add in taxes, commuting costs, etc, and the average net is probably in the nieghborhood of $25K to $30K.

FWIW: I am going to be looking for rural land (60 to 90 acres) later this year. I am not sure if I will make a go at a commerical farming effort, since I have a professional career. But I do plan to plant several acres of crops every year as well as plant an orchard or two. I believe we are headed for very bad times and I would rather live in a place with a low population density, and where I can become almost self-sustainable on my own land.

Best of luck to you!

Interesting times for Lake of the Ozarks Region, MO
 

Land prices continue their rapid rise due to the raging influx of city people looking to make a full-time living here rather than the former habit of having a seasonal cabin or such. In the county south of mine where they enjoy development apparently they are now having residents fighting the condominium developments in their totally planned and zoned county. These are the same people who displaced the former residents that had lived there for generations. Now they want to fight progress when they originally were fighting for it. As far as I am concerned, I hope the smaller middle class subdivisions get pushed out by the upper crust condos as I see it as returned karma.

In my county there are groups pushing to implement planning and zoning in my own county so they can control development. Ironically, my county has an economy mostly based on farming and seasonal tourism dollars and seemingly is in need of economic development. However, it seems they wish to prevent development while at the same time making it harder for existing residents to use their property.

Don't misunderstand me, I hate the unsustainable development that is destroying our nation and my local region. Though I do think that trying to control development now is futile because those with money will do what they want regardless of the planning and zoning regulations. There are so many people wanting development and progress yet they want to control it, which I think is virtually impossible.

Honestly, the way property taxes and threats of explosive development are increasing, I think it is not worth the effort to fight any of it. I'm worn out from fighting and trying to defend against what I see as a harmful blight and disease spreading across the landscape of our country, this infinite development that is unsustainable and in reality harmful to the continued existence of our country.

Why fight the distruction when that is exactly what society wants in its quest for greed and avarice and unquenchable appetite for ever more consumption? Yes, I am jaded and worn out from reporting on all the "economic development" and "progress" sought for my county. I know it is all unsustainable and will destroy the beauty of this area even more than it already has been. However, there are too many of them to stop the downfall and it will just become worse. But where would I run? There is virtually nowhere in this country safe from development unless it is virtually uninhabitable even with the high (unsustainable) technology that exists now. "Progress" is inevitable no matter where you go or where you live.

Reading these posts make me sad and furious; on another post, someone said that I have a problem with capitalism. No, I don't; I have a problem with this pseudo-capitalism that in the name of "progress", swallows and destroys. There are any visionary, intelligent people left out there? Capable of seeing and taking us into the 21st century without pushing for consumption and cheap Chinese crap? What can we do? Nothing? Continue to demand "progress" (developments and gated communities)?
"MY OWN FARM WAS OUTLAWED" This is a shame!

i believe home prices are unsustainable. it's not just national, it's an international real estate bubble caused by cheap money from the US and from japan.

transactions have fallen up to 40% in CA and FL. prices will likely soon follow. debt levels for people in the US are at record highs -- no slack in the system for people to keep making their mortgage or car payments if they lose their job, have an illness, have a major repair, etc.

a number of sub-prime mortgage lenders and brokers have gone bankrupt since december, as hedge funds asked for their money back for mortgages that have EPD (early payment default). there are some people that are defaulting on their first mortgage payment! credit will be tightening for the no-doc loans, meaning the bottom end of the market, the one that buys so everyone else can 'move up the ladder' to a fancier house, will likely disappear, with a ripple effect up the chain.

the 'recovery' since 2002 has been among the weakest on record based on employment growth. and it took incredible amounts of tax breaks, and cheap money, and new debt to do it. in the 1970's, it took $0.50 of new debt to create $1 of GDP growth. in the 1990's, it took $1.50-2. today, it's taking $4 of new debt to create $1 of GDP growth.

housing has created up to 30% of the new jobs in the recovery, including builders, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, etc . if housing tanks, which it looks like it's finally doing (i've been expecting it to tank for several years), those jobs will likely disappear. along with the ripple effect of people spending less on going out to dinner,buying new cars ,etc. detroit has serious problems, and is laying off people.

so, i expect extremely hard time financially to be hitting very soon. tough as that will be, that's actually not what worries me most.

what worries me is the political and social effects. the politicians give no indication that they understand or care what's really going on. and based on history (of either party) they chances of them passing really stupid and counterproductive new laws is really high.

meanwhile, as people get more and more angry, and desparate, i expect crime and lawsuits to go up significantly.

and i expect companies to get more desparate too. i expect hidden fees and fines to increase. i expect worse service, and less interest when you complain. i expect increased fraud. increased billing 'mistakes' that are in a company's interest.

if the US dollar falls, cpi inflation could take off, since so little mfg stuff is made here, and oil is mostly imported too.

in short, yes, housing is unsustainable, as is most of our 'non-negotiable' way of life. housing is only the most glaringly obvious problem area. as a country, i believe really hard times are coming, and i'm doing what i can to prepare for it. yep, i'm a real fun guy at parties!

--sgl

example housing bubbles
 

have a friend (military wife) who reports making $300K profit on their house in MD a few years back (and bypassed another $100-400 by not keeping it until now) who is now here (AL) suffering from the bubble collapsing. They got a big fancy golfcourse home here 2 yrs ago and she says she'll sell it at a loss (after prettying for sale) to get rid of it as her husb PCSes. She also has two rental apts in FL she would lose a lot on if she sold, so much she isn't even going to consider selling but instead is moving to a FL house to manage the apts (to avoid losses on rental agents) separating for this reason from husband until the FL market improves enough for her to sell those vacation rentals.

Sounds like a good reason for me to never speculate in real estate, and how come they don't say 'Well we gained $300K before , if we lose $200K now we're still ahead of the game'. I suppose they can't admit staying in the FL rentals may lead them to lose even more money all the while they don't even get to live together as a family.

I am the opposite- we've never been stationed anywhere with a booming house market- so I buy someone's nice 'older' (at least 5 years!, sure don't want the hassle and wait of building new) house with acreage and turn it into an older house with a farm going on and then when we had to leave the first one sure didn't get back what we paid. The 'rent' of monthly interest plus the loss divided over the years we lived there wasn't too bad- noone in that area would've let me rent such a nice house and put in all the agricultural stuff I did even if I could've found such a rental. Now in the same situation but DH can retire Army in 3.5 years so if we want to move but the resale price would lose us too much money we can change our minds and just stay here- this time we won't HAVE to move anymore.

What I see as a joke is the increased numbers of Beemers (BMW's), Lexus, Mercedes and other luxury cars for sale in the last couple of months... I guess those mortgage and RE brokers are getting desperate! :rolleyes: Hold on your horses guys, hard times are coming.

There a few other more significant problems headed our way:

1. Decline energy resources. Much of the leading exporters of oil and gas are declining as reserves deplete and rising internal demand. Well see shortages soon and much bigger price spikes. We have almost certainly passed peak production of oil and north american natural gas product has already occured several years ago.

2. Depleting Mid Western Aquifers. Aquifers such as the "Ogallala" are depleting rapidly forcing farmer to put in deeper wells and expend more money and energy to pump water from them. Eventually crop yields will begin to decline as the amount of water for crops declines.
http://www.uswaternews.com/archives/.../3scisay2.html

3. Unfunded pension and entitlement liabilities. The average boomer is expecting pensions and entitlements to get them through retirement. Except there is insufficient funds to support the flood of boomers that will begin to retire soon.

Should I say something about "global warming" or there is no proof yet for that? I'm surprised that people are so smug about these issues that have been discussed here and from all the activity, there are no opinions.

in case anyone cares about the real estate decline by area, here's some info. included in the original article (which i did not reproduce below) is a table showing gains and losses by area. in general, looks like FL has definitely tanked. WA/OR are still rising for the most part.

techguy, i agree those are critical issues too.

i imagine there's someone in AZ with a mcmansion and a hummer, expecting to collect social security and their steel/airline/auto/airline industry pension to pay for it. they're in for a rude shock when the water runs dry for watering their lawn, the cost of a/c in Az summer heat goes sky high, the cost of driving their hummer to the nearest walmart goes sky high, their pension gets repriced at 10 cents on the dollar when their former employer goes bankrupt, shedding their pension and post retirement medical benefits. then they try to sell their 'asset', ie the house, and discover that it hasn't appreciated, as few can afford it.

i've read 2012 is when social security outflows/payments get larger than social security inflows/taxes.

i read a number of financial sites. amazing the number of mainstream pundits that say that china has to keep buying our bonds, that they have no other choice, so therefore our trade deficit is no problem, and can continue for a long time.

taking your aquafer's running out as an example... one individual solution is to use composting toilets, reducing your water usage. however, many local governments/zoning boards will not allow these. or else you have to buy a 'commercial' composting toilet for $1000 plus. if you move out farther from a city to be away from zoning rules, you can have a composting toilet and raise chickens, but your commute costs with peak oil go sky high.

so, right now, the logical solutions to the problems run up against counterproductive gov't policies that make harder/impossible to do. unfortunately, i don't think this will change for a long time, and i don't personally feel i have the time to wait.

one other point about farmland...
altho i think residential real estate is grossly overpriced in most parts of the country, i'd guess farmland is probably underpriced. we had a 20 year bear market it commodities at the same time we had the 20 year bull market in financial assets. i believe 2000 market the switch to a 15-20 year bull market it commodities. gold, oil, and farm products have risen since then.

i expect farm prices to rise for good farmland. someone i know is a money manager. he told me last fall that when he visited the mid-west, some of the farm brokers had chinese on the back side of the business cards. apparently there were some chinese investors that were buying up some of the farmland.

so, i expect the next decade to be quite turbulent. a lot of people will get a very rude and hard wake-up-call, and most will not be very happy about it.

but the people on this board are much more self-sufficient, which is why i like coming here. tho i'm not homesteading now, i've been reading and thinking, and plotting my escape from these problems.

--sgl

I have a friend who was just transfered to DC to work full time as a lobbist. He works for a corporation that provides services to the mortgage banking industry. So, it's easy to think, "yea, another ethically challenged lobbist trying to fill his company's pockets with ill gotten gains". Actually, the opposite is true. His job is to convince the powers that be that the industry is out of control and heading for a disaster if not reigned in. The resettable variable rate loans, no principal deferred interest loans and all the other flaky, shaky trash, invented in the last few years, is going to really do some damage when it's time to pay up. Folks want to be in their McMansions and will sign anything to get there. It can either be stopped in a controlled manner, or end up doing serious damage to our entire economy.

I agree with you Tioga, I've seen and met people in denial (no river in Egypt) over those loans like they where candy or something... oh well, we just lost 10 billions in Irak so who cares, right? HSBC doesn't sounds too familiar to a lot of people but is basicaly a Chinese/British bank (old Bank of Hong Kong) and just anounced some disturbing news: http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pbc.../1238/business

tiogacounty,
don't know your friend, or the company he works for.

however, the time to lobby congress for rule changes on mortgages was 2-3 years ago, not now. the damage has already been done. and lots of people have been warning about this for several years, altho they don't get media attention because it's not 'popular'. perhaps your friends company was lobbying then, and is doing even more now, i don't know.

also, the bankruptcy 'reform' act was passed a couple/three years ago. my understanding that was passed due to financial industry pressure. it seems it has lots of provisions of benefit to the financial industry, and few to no benefits for the average homeowner.

so i hope you're right, and that there are sensible people trying to change the system for the better. but seems to me everything is being done for the benefit of big corps, not for the benefit of the average person. perhaps i'm jaded, but i see little evidence that that is changing. keep us posted on your friends progress and proposals -- perhaps that will renew my faith in the system...
--sgl

From my propective, Global warming is the least of my concerns. While it will probably will cause coast flooding (some decades ahead) and more extreme weather (may already be occuring), I can simply avoid it by chosing not liking close to the coast or in regions prone to extreme whether. I also believe all of the issues I meantion in my earlier post will come home to roost, well before coast flooding happens. I suspect that as clean energy fuels deplete (oil and gas), consumers will switch to much dirtier fuels (coal and wood) which will accelerate GHG emissions.

Unless we plan on importing food from other countries, i doubt this transformation from farmland to residential will continue. My reasoning is ever increasing population, more mouths to feed, require more food production...plus more and more of the corn crop is going to fuel for autos...not good for food production.

I don't think housing is too hot locally, but then again it is very cold winter weather.

You would be correct. I might add the trouble begins much earlier since increading outlays begin eating into the SS surplus (starting next year). Since the SS surplus is used to fund non-entitlement programs, the gov't will start having financial problems before 2012.

Perhaps, but is completely unsustainable. I think if the economy goes south (perhaps caused by a collapse in housing prices or an energy crisis) China will reconsider supporting the US. A large amount of recent mortages where financed by china (about 33%). If China starts losing money on mortgage defaults I believe they likely end the game.

Well this is impractical for urban regions (cities) since there is no land for depositing it locally, and it could lead to water-borne/airborne dieases that use to affect large cities with out proper sanitation. The use of water toilet was developed as a method to stop the spread of disease.

Second, most of the water consumed in the mid-west is for agraculture. which is a huge concern for me. If we have water shortages in the US breadbasket, we surely will have food shortages.

My thoughts as well, this is why I am going rural and adopt a self-sufficient lifestyle. When the crisis begins I want to be far away from the urbanal regions (aka, high crime rates, high drug use, increased diseases, lots of unhappy/angry people, etc).

Interesting.

Neither am I, but I am planning to start soon.

Some thoughts on choosing a site:

1. Mostly wooded (since you can use wood for heat and fuel). Trees that you cut down for make room for your home, crops and other buildings could be stock piled for heating (free fuel). FWIW: I am going to build a separate building for a wood burning furnance so that I deal with soot, and ash inside my house. Plus I intend to connect it to a separate workshop and green house (like a centralized steam plant).
2. Perhaps near large coal deposits regions. As oil and gas deplete, we'll switch back to coal. Regions with coal will probably create new jobs as businesses and the gov't build infrastructure to support coal extraction.
3. Avoid regions that are prone to drought or are dependant on ground water. since as the southwest and midwest.
4. Build new home. Make it energy efficient. Its easier and probably cheaper to build new than try to renovate an older home (designed in an era of cheap energy)
5. Look for areas that have rail nearby (public transport or freight). As fuel prices soar ( + $5 per gallon) it will kill the trucking industry. Rail will make a comback.

Best of Luck.

I read somewhere that 40% of some area's home sales were second houses. How many people that can afford second houses, have already bought them; meaning that further growth will of necessity slow down?

Not to urinate on your grain based breakfast food...
 

I can only speak for Missouri since I know the state better than other areas, but wells supply a good portion of our water here. Even though we have rivers, streams, creeks and lakes, they require water treatment to make sure they can be used for potable uses. Many of the surface sources are fed by underground aquafers due to our karst topography. Also, if we expect to use surface sources only, there is still only so much water to go around. The Missouri and Mississippi Rivers both have had issues over the past several years on the flow being enough for municipal water supplies and for barge travel.

As for railroads, in Missouri so many of the old railroad lines have been torn out, turned over to make biking/hiking trails (the Katy [MKT] Trail) or have been abandoned as the cost to remove the rails and railbed materials would cost more than to just leave the materials where they are. It would cost a substantial amount of money to bring those lines back up to where they could be used again. Also, the depots, station facilities and such that were once used to service the freight and freight trains don't exist any more either for those old lines. Yes, we do have some of the original lines still in use, such as the line that Amtrak uses between Kansas City and Saint Louis, but that line is a single track that also has to handle quite a few freight trains per day.

The way our national infrastructure is set up now we are so dependent upon inexpensive fuel that to revert back to less energy intensive and efficient methods of supply would be rather costly, but perhaps still possible. However, I have to question how we are going to operate rail and water transportation without fossil fuels. It's not like we have wood and coal fueled steam locomotives and paddlewheelers still operating. Modern trains and water transport uses diesel fuel and oil for lubrication. They also depend upon fossil fueled repair facilities and fossil fuel produced component parts.

As it stands right now, while we can transport bulk freight fairly well, our supply chain systems are designed around just-in-time rather than store-up-and-distribute-as-needed. Plus, without inexpensive fossil fuels how are you going to get things like food, tools, clothing and other items from the freight trains to all the small towns that are now 30 to 50 miles or more from the closest freight railroad line? How are you going to supply clean, potable water without inexpensive fossil fuels to our current (and still rapidly growing) population?

Please forgive me for hijacking this thread like this since I'm going off on a tangent. Housing here at the Lake of the Ozarks tri-county area is all going towards condominium developments, high dollar, high density townhouses and single family homes in upscale subdivisions. Affordable, sustainable, ecologically and economically sustainable housing is becoming virtually non-existent. Combined with that is the fact the infrastructure (roads, electrict grid, water supply and wastewater treatment) need to be improved to handle the population growth. Right now that works with inexpensive fossil fuel energy. This does NOT work nor is it sustainable without said inexpensive fossil fuels.

Regardless of what the housing market does, we are reaching endgame with our natural resources with or without inexpensive, high density, easily transportable fuel sources (petroleum, coal, natural gas and other fossil fuel sources). Even if we see a move of population to urban centers to save on transportation costs or a move to rural areas to find housing and perhaps better living conditions, we face an infinite run of population growth right now with finite resources. It doesn't matter if you have enough McMansions or condos or apartments to house everyone if you stuff them in like sardines to put roofs over their heads, you cannot sustain the building structures, utility supplies or maintain transportation systems as they currently are without inexpensive fuels and a resource base for other materials that continues to grow to meet the population growth demands.

There is one thing I do know about the housing in Missouri. While the older city homes, historic apartments and farm homes aren't technically efficient in the sense of our current standards, they were built at a time before air conditioning and plentiful electricity utilized like we do now. High ceilings in the summer keep a room cooler and when combined with tall windows, allows in lots of light when electricity was expensive or uncommon. People also lived with cooler winter temperatures with less central heat and more spot heating or simply thicker clothing and quilts.

I have had a taste of what we may face in the future while I was in Spain a decade ago. Central heating in winter was for a short time each day, though the buildings were designed to rely upon the heat storage capacity of stone and concrete in winter while also relying upon the resistance to heating in the summer. Heating in Spanish houses generally was limited to inhabited rooms like the living room/sitting room but not bedrooms generally. Kitchens were not heated as cooking was done in them. However, water and sewer lines were centrally located within the structure to protect them from freezing.

What does all this mean? We would be better prepared to figure out how to live within our means and rethink our home designs NOW rather than worry about the housing market alone. Most things have an intrinsic value if they are needed for something important like shelter, food, water, warmth, medical or defense, but other things only have a value based on what someone would trade to have that item. Most housing I believe would be classified as the latter since a major portion of its value is based on perceived value.

removed

you're right, there has been a large number of second home/'investor' purchases. i've seen numbers as high as 30% of homes nationally. i'm sure local markets such as FL probably saw much higher.

now builders are reporting cancelation rates of up to 39%, meaning buyers who put down earnest money on a condo/house a year ago or so, are choosing to walk away losing their earnest money, rather than complete the purchase of the house/condo. the builder is then stuck trying to sell it. (FL i think suffers more from this than others, but i'd guess it occurs elsewhere too.)

in addition, there's been a lot of MEW, mortgage equity withdrawal. so even people that only bought one house, have been refinancing and spending the home appreciation. that has added about 1-2% to gdp growth each year for the last several years.

there's also been an increase in the percentage of homeownership from about 65% to 69% nationally over 5+ years, mostly due to very loose lending standards, which has added to the home buying demand.

the home ownership percentage has dropped back slightly in the last year or so if i remember correctly.

i expect the effect you pointed out, and other effects as well, will all work to slow the housing unit growth.

if we have a recession, which i personally think we will, then job losses will accelerate these trends. there's a number of pundits claiming 'housing has stabilized' or 'most of the decline is behind us.' most of those pundits have a vested interest, and aren't the ones that'll be making your mortgage payment. i don't believe them.

--sgl

from a few i'm familiar with:
in europe, they still have extensive railroad systems, altho they're more compact with higher population density. (i travelled for 2 months in europe with a eurail pass, and never needed to rent a car, or take a plane at all.) they also do not run the hot water heater all day -- its timed to come on in the morning and late afternoon. their cities are much more compact, with effect mass transit systems, and a lot more walkable.


i think this is the key point. and as you and reluctantpatriot both point out, our entire infrastructure is designed assuming energy/oil is cheap. if/when that assumption is no longer valid, it's incredibly expensive to retrofit.

on a small scale, adding insulation to an existing house is far more expensive than if the same insulation had been put in to begin with. for an old house with charm, it might be worth it to remodel and update the insulation.

on a large scale, we've gutted our railroad and local mass transit systems over the last century, and gone almost completely with highways, cars, and trucks, and moved to suburbia. that cannot be undone easily, quickly, or cheaply.

--sgl

Thank you sgl, you put it more eloquently than I did...

Well, we would have to totally change our way of thinking
 

We would have to totally change our way of thinking though I believe that most people are not yet ready to do that in the general population.

In Spain water heaters in homes and apartments are instant on gas types with most being lit with a match and you turn on the gas valve from the butane tank (approximately 40 pound size) when you wish to use it, turning it off when you are done. Newer models I have seen are now self-igniting with a piezoelectric lighter that lights the burners with the water flow through it starting the igniter and also shutting off the burner totally when the water flow stops.

Washers are tiny compared with even the smallest front loader I have seen here. They also have washer-dryer units that are built into one, though most people save in the major cities (to the best of my knowledge) line dry their clothing using a continuous clothes line on pulleys between the ends of their apartment (most apartment buildings have two apartments per floor and are built around a central court yard. Those in the first floor apartments (second floor here as they count the entry level as the lobby) have a patio upon which to use a much larger clothes line.

Railroads in Spain are built in three levels, intraprovincial, interprovencial and transnational. The first two levels are passenger rail and light with a mix of diesel and electric power. The latter one is what we used to have, mixed passenger and freight on the same train, though they move much , much faster.

In Spain vehicles are designed to obtain the most performance/cargo weight capacity out of the smallest size possible to have the best efficiency. However, this comes at a price because the taxes on vehicles are rather high. Older cars like we have here are rare and look to be in almost showroom new condition because if you have rust or any leaks the goverment can force you to get rid of the car. Junk yards to the best of my knowledge do not exist in Spain.

Yes, the Spanish socialist goverment makes public transportation common and health care available to all, but it also creates the 20 to 25 percent unemployment I saw there though it is not culturally repugnant to have a college education, be fluent in three or more languages and work as a sanitation worker, which does happen. Middle class families at the time I was there would have earned about $8,000 to $12,000 in 1995-1996 U.S. dollars. Utilities are also very expensive compared with income. The cost of electricity while I was in Spain was ten times what one would have paid for the same energy in the United States.

However, their infrastructure is built up upon centuries of previously built work from Greek, Roman, Moor and Middle Ages forward European structures. Many of the streets in Spain are simply relayered asphalt over cobblestone, brick or stone or simply well cared for materials that are still the same as those used hundreds of years ago. Most of the university buildings, at least in Salamanca where I studied, were hundreds of years old with most of the churches and cathedrals between a few to several hundred years old. Even the modern structures are built more along the lines of being frugal with energy since the costs are high despite pretty general availability.

We don't have the same level of generational frugality built into our culture as other international cultures do. We also have a stubborness that we want what we want and to hades with the consequences of it in the future. We want more and more, much more than our parents and grandparents had. It is one thing to aspire to more, but something else to wish to devour more in the pursuit of that aspiration.

Where does this all fit in? Our culture is so built upon endless growth and such thought processes are so ingrained within our society that I am not sure we can change for the better until we are all but facing a total end of all that we know. I don't see our country changing of its own volition, only when it is virtually dying and gasping for its final breaths.

And all our realtors, construction contractors and neighbors can think of is how much more they can consume, sell and buy for the fleeting feeling of contentment.

sadly, that seems to be the plan, or at least what's happening.

i think several years ago (3-5? can't remember for sure) that US agriculture imports were larger than exports for the first time in decades if not forever. my impression is that trend has continued.

i believe this was by dollar amount, so that a few bottles of expensive french champagne imports might counterbalance a few tons of grain. hence, we may still be able to feed ourselves if necessary, but i don't know for sure.

i suspect if something like NAIS passes, it won't be enforced on argentina beef imports, only on US producers, particularly small folk that can't afford lots of lawyers and lobbyists to defend themselves.

--sgl

next61: sorry for hijacking your thread so much. when i talk like this at parties, everyone runs away and i never get invited back. :p so when people don't run away, i jabber away more.

reluctantpatriot:
i definitely agree with you that the changes we face won't happen until it's forced on the country. sadly, the people likely to suffer aren't the same ones that have the most culpability for causing the problem.

once the politicians start talking about having to make 'sacrafices' they mean the average person, not the politicians themselves, or their corporate buddies. so i doubt the changes that will be made will be wise ones. that's why personally i'll try to find my own wise choices, and try to get out of the way of the gov't as much as i can.

i also agree that one of the root problems is too many people without any sense of 'enough is enough'. whether that's part of the american psyche, or only because we're in a bubble, i don't really know.

this is another one of the reasons i really enjoy this homesteading forum -- people still have a sense of what is enough, or so it seems to me. i doubt too many people here have 3 people living in a 3,000 sq ft mcmansion. furthermore, if they won the lottery, i doubt many people here would buy one. (they might buy more land, or a new tractor, or a huge barn, but probably not a 3,000 sq ft house unless they had lots of kids and could actually use it.) and people here don't seem quite so hung up on doing something to impress the neighbors.

but i suspect people will be forced to learn frugality sometime in the near future.

there's a book about a 4 generation cycle, ('fourth turning', www.fourthturning.com) where the generation that faces hard times (eg, our great depression and wwII), learns sacrafice and hard work.

their children are relatively quiet and conformist, not rocking the boat, but not having quite the same sense of responsibility. (eg, ozzie & harriett 1950's).

the next generation rebels against the conformity, and tries to change the system. (eg, 1960's hippies & rock & roll.)

the next generation, the 4th from the hard times generation, has completely lost any sense of hard times and sacrafice, and doesn't really protest to change the system, but becomes basically self indulgent. (that would be today!)

and the leaders (political, business, religious, etc) who lived thru the hard times have died or retired, along with their wisdom. setting the stage for more hard times...

eg, can you imagine the people that lived thru the depression, if they were running a mortgage company, that they would be making the types of loans they're making today? can you imagine the people that saw the horrors of wwII, would so casually talk about invading another country as being a 'slam dunk', and being surprised that it didn't go according to their plan?

apparently this book was written after reading letters from a whole bunch of people from the american history, and the cycle has been fairly consistent. ie, this pattern appeared during the revolutionary war, the civil war, etc.

altho i haven't read the book, i've read shorter articles and such about it. the book is probably far better and intelligible than my gross oversimplification above.

well, enough of my charm and optimism for now...
--sgl

Unfortunatelly, the history repeats itself with a twist. As of last night, I found this study about GMO that frightend me. I knew about the risk of geneticaly modified foods but I was not aware of how damaging could be...



from The Independent & The Independent on Sunday
17 February 2007 11:31
Home
> News
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Suppressed report shows cancer link to GM potatoes
By Colin Brown, Deputy Political Editor
Published: 17 February 2007
Campaigners against genetically modified crops in Britain last are calling for trials of GM potatoes this spring to be halted after releasing more evidence of links with cancers in laboratory rats.

UK Greenpeace activists said the findings, obtained from Russian trials after an eight-year court battle with the biotech industry, vindicated research by Dr Arpad Pusztai, whose work was criticised by the Royal Society and the Netherlands State Institute for Quality Control.

The disclosure last night of the Russian study on the GM Watch website led to calls for David Miliband, the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, to withdraw permission for new trials on GM potatoes to go ahead at secret sites in the UK this spring. Alan Simpson, a Labour MP and green campaigner, said: "These trials should be stopped. The research backs up the work of Arpad Pusztai and it shows that he was the victim of a smear campaign by the biotech industry. There has been a cover-up over these findings and the Government should not be a party to that."

It doesn't go along the housing thread but adds up to the necessity of being aware and alert as homesteaders!

Perhaps your already aware of this:

I suspect that PTB in large financial businesses are well aware of the dangers. In fact, by in large they have all made changes in anticipate of a housing collapse (sort of). Instead of holding on to debt like traditional banking, they offload all their debt on to the bond market. They make money on servicing the loans, and don't care if the homeowner defaults. The faster they can issue more loans the more money they make. That is why they offer consumers no-money down/no documentation loans. OPM! Other People's Money!

Now you might ask, who is foolish enough to buy all these bonds? The majority of the capital comes from overseas and US pension plans. Countries like China, Japan, etc are investing their US trade surpluses into these bonds. Other than US treasuries the US bond market is really their only other option.

Well the boom in Biofuels is now a driving factor in crop consumption. and I believe some Ethanol producers were looking to import cane sugar from South America. Food prices are on the march up as everything from animal feed to agraculture inputs (fertializer, pesticides, etc) are approaching shortages. On top of all this, the world has faced a grain shortage since about 1997. During the Summer we were projected to fall below 57 days for grain reserves. Considering the worldwide droughts (especially in Austrialia) and the demand for biofuels, its has bound to drop below 50 days. Its probably only a matter of a few more years before serious grain shortages happen. I think the first cauasalities will be the worlds poorest regions that are dependant on foriegn food aid.


FWIW: Europe is still dependant on cheap energy. While the cost to consumers for energy is very high, they still import it at market prices. The costs for energy will rise as the market prices creating a shock in Europe. The biggest challege for Europeans is that they are very close to 100% dependant on imports since Europe has very little natural energy resources on the European continent. Already Europe is experiencing issues with natural gas supplies. Its interesting to note the Russia's largest Gas producer Gazapromo has annonced that its facing gas shortages. Where does Europe turn to when Russia stops exporting natural gas? It should be interesting since Europe is pushing hard to reduce GHG emissions at a time when clean fuels (Natural Gas and Oil) are begin to deplete. The only other option is to begin using dirty fuels (peat & coal) for basic energy needs. Currently Europe is investing heavily into semi-renewable sources (biofuels, wind, solar), the amount of energy these source can replace is tiny compared to the amount currently provided by gas and oil. Perhaps if Europe had another thirty to fifty years it might be able to replace the majority of fossil fuel use. Unfortunately, it has less then ten years.

I am also concerned that Europe is indanger of another rise of fascism do to its large population and extensive use of socialism. Too many Europeans are dependant on centralized gov't and could lead to some form of totalitarianism. If Europe is unable to meet its basic needs for its population it could become belligerent.

All good reasons given here.

Speculation has driven much of the home prices. In AZ and Las Vegas, houses were bought before they were built, rented for 1/2 payment, sold two years later at a huge profit.

I do think the 'on demand' water heaters would be a good thing.

In AZ, they were running a water conservation campaign. There was nothing said about swimming pools, all those huge fountains, the open canals that loose huge amounts to evaporation, the 'deep' watering method of lawn maintenance, or golf courses. (Although I did read that some of those were watered with recycled water.) The only thing I saw touted was turn off the water when you brush your teeth.

Also, 99% of the time there is no reason for clothes dryers in the SW. Certainly not in AZ - clothing dries faster on the line than in the dryers.

My husband decided to just be onery one time in AZ. WE chose a particular site for our travel trailer because it had shade. He sat outside a lot and read in the shade. The tree trimmers came by and asked us to move our truck. He said he didn't want the tree cut. They had a contract and was going to cut it. He said you will have to move me. That went on for a couple of days. Different people came out to talk with him and he explained how much difference in energy consumption those shade trees meant. (Of course it was the electric company that was hiring the cutting - no dummies there.)

One Mexican got on the phone and was talking to his boss, not knowing my husband understood and he said, "I don't know - just some crazy old man that won't get out from under the tree."

It looked funny when we drove down the street - there was a whole line of scalped trees and one great big shady tree. Finally he gave in and we moved from the park.

So maybe China is not just buying paper, they are buying paper that has farmland, houses, businesses attached to it. They can foreclose and own even more of this country. Scary thought.

I haven't heard anything about making it harder to get foreign workers on the farm - I thought I read someone had posting regarding this. They are still coming across in a steady stream - with our government protecting them all the way.

As for locating near a coal deposit - just make sure it isn't lignite. They are destroying land right and left here in TExas digging it up - I expect they will get our place within the next 4 years. They bought a friends place and told them it would be 10 years before they entered Phase II, (moving farther down the country). That was 2 years ago, and they have already begun to buy the land in Phase II - which is just a few miles from us.

I don't know what the problem is, but there is some land here that as 'reclaimed' over 30 years ago and there is nothing on it. It is beautiful rolling hills, with grass, some nice trees now, ponds, etc. There are no cattle, no hay cut. At first they said it was because the land hadn't settled yet and there were sink holes - but that time has gone. I have heard the mining churned up something toxic. I have heard they decided to import some deer because they thought it would look better if some pretty little deer were prancing around on it - the deer left. I don't know the real reason.

There are some places reclaimed maybe 10 or 12 years ago where they planted some pine forests. They look nice - but just watch out for lignite.

With the proposed building of 10-16 new power plants in TExas, I would say few places are safe from the coal company.

China as a huge food shortage problem as at lot of fertial land is being lost of redeveloped. I suspect that they maybe interested in aquiring farm land order to produce food in the US for consumption back home in China. As afar as speculation on taking over, Japan was alledgely trying this back in the eighties but the never tried to take over.

Lots of orange farms and other produce farms are selling out. Partly because of the rise in land prices, but also because they having a tough time aquiring labor. I believe California farmers are also facing similar issues

Yup, That is indeed a problem. Obviously it would be a bad idea to buy a piece of property that is on top or ajoining a coal deposit. What I was suggesting is that where there are coal deposits there will be job opportunites. As energy prices soar, the economic growth will be in regions that have coal deposits while regions far away from will see a decline in economic activity. Unemployement will grow in the burbs and the cities as jobs that are dependant on cheap energy disappear. Even if you don't have a skill directly related to mining, there will still be opportunities.

FWIW: You might want to check to make sure your property doesn't sit on top or right next to coal deposits. When push comes to shove, the coal company will have no problem claiming emment domain. Also if its too close, the noise and pollution from nearby mining operations will drive down property prices.

That is right. Like I said The city that I SIT AS A BOARD member on can not grow with out my land. The sewer plant and water tower is south of my land.

They can and DID move it into the city with out any problems. TILL NOW.

The court thre out the tickets as I moved the animals. THE LAND IS STILL ZONED AG. We have moved the animals back. The city HAS to add sewer and city water to my land to rezone it. Costing the city 330k. They have a yearly budget of 20k. They also have to add alleys. This is not cheap as they will have to cross a creek 5 times. Just the alley ways to support fire and resuce vehicals will cost them in the millons.

I told them if they want to zone this all COMMERCIAL as the other places I own that are in the city and but up agains this land are. I am all for it. As long as they go by their own rules and laws. It would make me a lottey winner over night.

I had to get a OK to return my animals VIA the police cheif. As that is what the laws read. Now that I am in the city, yet not in the city. Go figure. The city attorny will not take the case. The states attorny told the city go by the laws on the book.

Global warming is a issue IF YOU CAN NOT READ. If you can red and can remember what you we showed in low level classes in school. We are not even close to the sulpher age yet.

Earth and Humans who will win. The earth will. The earth can fart and kill us all. This rock is fine. Its us humans that are screwed. We are just a flea on the earth.

No the time was in the 80's with 16.9 APR. Not now at the lowest. If the banks take a huge los thats is fine. SUB PRIME LENDING has always been around. ALWAYS. Pay here auto loans. Post dated check loads and such. Why is a 3-8 point rate in interst OUR problem? Its not. Its the folks that have that load. Its their problem. Not mine or yours. If they loose the home they THOUGHT they could afford to bad. Weclome to America.

Just because you can afford the PAYMENTS dosn't mean you can afford the house or car. I am not a debt hatter. I like debt. I do think credit has mad many folks millionairs. They just knew how to manage debt. Not take it on as a pet.

Can you blame the credit card companies? I mean really can you?

They extended creidt on terms to folks.

Folks learn they are going broke. So the first thing they do is what? Max out anyone that can not claim. You get to keep you house and car in chapter 7. Your credit cards are left to eat it.

You keep your collage loan bill, UNLESS. You pay your collage loan with a credit card. Then file chapter 7.

I do not blame the credit card folks one bit. They are helpig us as the loans for collage are stanford loans that are TAX PAYER BACKED. MOST of these are paid after you finish collage. The interst dosn't kick in till you are done with school. If you are poor comming out of collage. LIKE i WAS. Most are. That bill is due. If you can force then onto a credit card some way. You can go chapter 7 on them. You owe nothing.

Medical bills are the same way. MOST folks go broke because they are poor planners and have a incident. The medical bills roll in very high to them. They file for bankrupt.

Guess who eats that cost. I do and you do even if you have health insurance you absorb that operating cost.