2007 Corn Crop

I like Paul's (Rambler) answers quite a bit. I'd add that this is a boom and bust cycle, and we have seen it before with ethanol. Because it takes more energy in total to produce a gallon of ethanol than there is in that gallon of ethanol, government subsidies must be added. All that adds up to what basically is a huge bubble or market distortion in the corn market, fueld by government defcit spending subsidies. There sill be short-term gains from that, but farmers need to be cautious about incurring long-term debts to realize those short-term gains.

I see interviews with a number of Midwestern farmers going to corn on corn, with heavy N, and buying new equipment to convert and plant more corn acres this year. These are the guys who later will make opportunities for folks to buy up their equipment and land at the forced sales.

As soon as gas drops below a threshold level retail, we will see a lot of these ethanol plants shut down. Not gonna happen, you say? Just look at the gas price bottom this year we had. All it will take is a global recession or downturn in major countries and suddenly oil gets cheap again. It's a commodity.

With declining fuel price will come declining affinity for subsidizing ethanol.

Then, just like in the '70s, a lot of farmers who went gung-ho will be left holding the bag. It is such a shame that the vast majority never learn the historical lessons from the recent past.

I would avoid jumping in with both feet on this, and not just because of what I said. You can also add in the fact that, by 2008, we will see a number of switchgrass and other cellulose-based ethanol plants going online. That is going to slacken demand for corn, even if oil stays high.

Then you have to factor in the Southern market, which is largely cash-based. Any real escalation of Southern corn acreage on a spot market would depress prices. And there is indication that a shift is underway down South.

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates

Heard this guy on the Ed Schultz show yesterday, sounded pretty logical:
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/...ostly.ssl.html
But, his research is being questioned by USDA and DOE as being out of date.

"The government spends more than $3 billion a year to subsidize ethanol production when it does not provide a net energy balance or gain, is not a renewable energy source or an economical fuel. Further, its production and use contribute to air, water and soil pollution and global warming...He points out that the vast majority of the subsidies do not go to farmers but to large ethanol-producing corporations. "

.netDude...EXACTLY!

Plus, ethanol is not a clean fuel. It pollutes, producing high NOx levels (smog). At best, it is a short-term solution.

The savvy farmer will position him or herself to take best advantage of short-term price spikes without incurring long-term debt. Yeah, you might not hit the highest of highs...but you avoid being overextended in the lowest of lows later! As I wrote, I think there are just too many things colluding to work against a long-term price rally.

The whole deal smells to me of Earl Butz and another pending farm crises...but minus the old style farm support relationship with the government. Plant all ya can, they yelled. I'll never forget 1977, watching Illinois corn ground go for $5,000 an acre to a farmer hungry to get seed in it that year cuz corn was high due to inflation. Then came 1979, and I stood watching the same ground go at forced sale for $2,000. But that's another story.

About in here somewhere, someone always seems to bring up Brazil, which uses a lot of ethanol and is nearing energy independence. But that is another ball of wax, if you will look into it. Brazil can grow a type of sugar beet (not suitable for the U.S. climate) that provides an easy and bountiful source of the ethanol (way better than corn), Brazilian air quality standards are more lax, and Brazil has enough of its own oil reserves to make independence within the realm of possibility. That does not apply to the U.S.

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates

I am curious about the product that will be left after the corn has veen made into fuel (Brewers Malt).

Does anyone have the information on this as far as feed value content?

edcopp, they feed it like mad around here. It actually is a pretty good feedstuff. Jack Daniel's provides a lot of it in liquid form, and they are always trying to get rid of it, so price is good.

Other farmers elsewhere can buy it dry, which makes it easier to store and handle.

Look here:

http://www.ncga.com/livestock/PDFs/D...insBooklet.pdf

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates

there was going to be an ethanol plant put in 3 miles from me. They decided to move somewhere els. Im sure our idiot socialist county planners ran them out with all their demands.

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A gentleman farmer (works an off farm job too) said he sold his 2007 corn crop for $4 per bushel to an ethanol plant buying agent, though it will have to be transported quite a bit of distance since the closest one is about two hours away.

My county has little corn, soybean and sorghum production due to soil and topography limitiations but it does fairly well with meat and dairy cattle. Those who grow the mentioned minority crops like oats, alfalfa and different varieties of hay will have to do whatever they can to produce them to meet the needs of the cattle farmers here. We already had two very dry droughty years in a row that has played havoc with those crop supplies. If those growers switch over to corn or soybeans the cattle farmers will be out of luck for feed unless they grow their own, though most have to buy supplimental hay as due to the drought the fields their cattle graze have been sparse.

If farmers want to put livestock farmers in a bind on a national level, so be it. The dry distillers grain byproduct for most ethanol plants, per what two ethanol experts have told an economic development group here for the county, the quantities will be substantial. However, a USDA contact explained that the DDG should only be fed as a supplimental ration up to 20 percent for cattle due to health and nutritional reasons. However, the supply of DDG would be far in excess of what could be reasonably consumed by cattle.

My view, after doing my own research, is that waste vegetable oil biodiesel made on a homestead scale is the only reasonably viable biofuel that could be currently sustainable. Once the process is scaled up to try providing fuel on a county, state or national level there are significantly higher fossil fuel inputs needed to move and use the biofuels.

As for my personal experiences with 10 percent ethanol/90 percent gasoline blends, in my 1994 Mercury Sable I have an average of 20 mpg in local driving (some small town, but mostly hilly highway miles) but have an average of 25 to 26 mpg with 100 percent gasoline. I have not bought any labled ethanol-gasoline blend fuel for several years because of that reason. Unfortunately there is a law that was passed in Missouri that mandates all gasoline be a 10 percent ethanol blend after a certain date unless the ethanol supply cannot keep up with motor fuel demand.

I would be all for biofuels if they were truly environmentally sustainable and could be sufficient to meet our demands. However, they cannot because we require fossil fuel inputs to grow the crops, fertilize the ground, harvest and transport the crops. We also are facing the desires by many "experts" to utilize everything that is biomass to make fuel and refuse to consider the consequences of such actions. If you think a spike in corn prices is bad, think about what would happen when not only corn but also soybeans, hay, trees, brush, crop residues, any plant matter at all, is gobbled up to fuel biomass fuel plants?

The reality is that even if we used every alternative fuel source and equipment we currently have (solar, hydro, wind and biomass) we can produce at best 10 percent of our national energy needs at current energy usage levels, let alone trying to meet an infinitely growing energy hunger on a finite planet. Perhaps we could meet the current energy needs for a short time, but not on an environmentally sustainable level.

Something must be given up to live within our ability to produce energy. However, I don't think we have the wherewithall to do what is needed to do that.

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I would challenge anyone here to think of a question upon which we once had a scientific answer, however inadequate, but for which now the best answer is a religious one. – Sam Harris

Most around here dry it into Dried Distillers Grains, or DDG.

Cattle & the like can make best use of it as energy & protien, not so much for hogs & poultry - wrong kind of energies.

You get 17 lbs of it per bu of corn processed.

Here is a web site that lists some comparisons & crude protien, etc.:

http://www.soymeal.org/worldlitartic...terry1986.html


I believe with current ethanol plant technology, there is a small net energy gain in the process? I agree it is no great savior for us all - but getting 2.7-2.8 gallons of ethanol per bu, plus the 17 lbs of cattle feed, shows a net increase of energy in vs energy out in today's world.

I don't think ethanol from corn is long-term - a decade, 2 maybe??? and we will move on to something else. So positive or negative net energy, I will surely agree that it's no final answer for our fuel needs.

I think it does help a bit on fuel supplies, & it does help decrease some bad pollutants in the air, tho yes it does add some different ones.

Not the final answer.

--->Paul

Corn planting are at a all time high. That is great BUT, what if we have a heck or a drought? The crops that were not planted like beans, milo, wheat, cotton, HAY and sunflowers. We will all see INCREASED feed prices. Not just for the animals, but for our selves.

Corn is about the worst item we could use for ethonal. We use corn for so much. Its a burden. Now, we all have to pay more for the offset. I hope we get lucky and have a great year and see no MORE rise in our soda, sweetners, packaging, meat, eggs and milk.

Ever why not? Invest in where your profit takes you. Corn is pretty much the worst for fuel. You"re alternative? You're in the feed lot belt? Just wondering.

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Rudeness is a small man's imitation of power.

It actually takes more energy to produce ethanol using corn than it saves on using oil for fuel. It also takes a tremendous amount of water to make ethanol and many of the areas of the country are in a drought. Making ethanol also produces a lot of pollution. That said, we use an organic foliar feed on our crops- works as good or better than other chemical based fertilizers and is absorbed better and faster by the plants.

In TN, farmers have planted 42% more acreage to corn than last year. You read that right, a 42% jump in one year. So the prediction would be that prices will drop when all this corn comes in at the same time, right?

I got one word for ya: drought.

When buying winter feed, I look at percentage of protein and total digestable nutrients vs. price. Period. I buy the best value feedstuffs in bulk that are palatable. The key this year is, the increased corn ground in such a wide area of the country is going to pressure other feedtsuff prices, because ground that would have went to other grains or cotton is being planted to corn.

I take solace in that this is just a bubble that will pop in future years as sawgrass, corn waste and other fuel stocks will supplant the corn we now use to brew ethanol.

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Jim Steele
Sweetpea Farms
"To avoid criticism, say nothing, do nothing, be nothing." -- Robert Gates

How many fodder plants are we are building WITH TAX PAYER interest? How many seeds based plants will come online this year with tax payer money? I know how many in my state.

I also know the 310000 gallons a day we will have to sell to our local plant. That one pant uses more water then this village dose ALL YEAR. Providing water is not cheap. So we raised the water prices to the folks in this town to offset it. BECAUSE WE HAD TO.

Sugar cane is SUBSIDISED in a huge way in THIS COUNTRY. So are sugar beats. Ask Hershey or Troll what they are moving their companies out of this country. THE SUGAR prices.

We can grow sugar cane in many areas of this country. The acreage is fine for TOTAL ethanol production of the country. The DOE has said as much. Yet, were doses that leave most the farmers? Out to try it on their own.

Notice if the farmers cared about fuel prices. Ethanol would not be their choice. Bio Diesel would be. You do not see many plants coming on line for soy beans or used cooking oils, tallow or yellow fats.

MANY farmers that are putting corn in this year will ALSO get subsidies for the last years crop. They are planting corn on ground used for cotton. Cotton seed oil is a commonly we use a lot of. More then the cotton itself.

5 dollar corn is very easy to see in the fall. Do you play the futures market? There is a reason Corn is one of the hottest daytraded commodities. I and you can make more trading the corn. Never planting it then YOU COULD EVER make farming it.

The rain in the Midwest threw many of us off. We had to send folks allover to see if farmers could even get into the fields to plant.

The farmers do not make the price. The traders do. Coke and Pepsi already planned and PRICED in 5 dollar corn. Like I said look at the price of a bottle of soda.

Seed corn to ethanol is a HUGE waste and BURDEN on the American people. Fodder would be better used or sugar beats. Sugar cane would be nice, BUT we have such a make up on that product it would never bee able to pass. So switch grass a sugar cane derivative would work fine.

You need to travel more and go look at things not just read them.

You will also find we use more gasoline then ANY other country. The rest of the world knows there are much better fuels. Our own auto makers even make cars, pick ups and the like for them.

http://www.freetrade.org/pubs/briefs/tbp-013.pdf

sucrose sweetener IS NOT covered under the current deal. We have all enjoyed the cheaper sweetener. Raw sugar in a soda has come down to a rare find.

Corn sugar is so common. That a .05 cent per bushel raise in corn prices sends sweetener and Plastic produceres into a take cover mode.

It also takes a heck of alot of petro checmicals to raise corn. The fuel is also from petro in most cases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_fructose_corn_syrup

We may not be at 5 bucks, but 4 bucks for winter corn. The CBOT has been ontop of corn heavy.

Drought would have been key. Looks like we are doing rather well in corn, much better times to come
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/marketin...obr_07-01.html

Taken from link above. 79 MORE PLANTS under construction. So were dose the hay come from?

"The Renewable Fuels Association reported that as of May 8, 2007, 118 bio-refineries were in operation with annual production capacity of 6.1 billion gallons of ethanol. In addition, eight existing plants were expanding capacity and 79 plants were under construction. Those additions were estimated to have annual production capacity of 6.4 billion gallons. The USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) forecasts that 3.4 billion bushels of corn will be used for ethanol production in the 2007-08 marketing year. In the very near future, annual ethanol production capacity will exceed 12.5 billion gallons. If corn remains the predominant feed stock for ethanol production, nearly 4.5 billion bushels could be used annually (assuming a conversion ratio of 2.8 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn) beginning late in the 2007-08 or early in the 2008-09 marketing year."

Kansas is helping out as it looks like this years corn crop will far exceed this years wheat crop. So much for Kansas the Wheat State on license plates.

A plant 30 miles or so from me uses only milo to produce ethanol. Milo is a grain sorghum that requires less moisture than corn per crop thus ensuring more areas of Kansas can grow it--which they have done for decades.

A company around Wichita designs ethanol plants and is planning on converting the aforementioned plant into using cellulosic crops such as switchgrass. They have designed plant that will open using cellulosic crops. I foresee the residue from Conservation Reserve Program land as a great source. Also looked at is wheat straw residue, milo residue, and corn residue.

Corn prices in Ontario have fallen recently

Corn pries here in Minnesota have fallen $1.20 a bu, we are getting less than $3 a bu, or right near.

We had rain yesterday, so expect corn prices to fall this week, all week.

--->Paul