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???Anybody abandoning Cash?
I have come to the conclusion that it is not a good idea any longer to hold cash.
Anyone into mining stocks? Ox |
I think cash has abandoned me!!! Lol
Gold and small pieces of real silver are nice to have around when paper is worthless except for cleaning up. TnTnTn |
If you are abandoning cash and have any you want to get rid of, I'd be glad to take if off your hands.
I assume you're referring to gold mining stocks....not a bad investment, IMHO. |
I've held a mining stock or two for years and years now. They (mine) pay a fairly decent dividend and the prices have skyrocketed over the years. Not a bad thing to invest in.
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Mining stocks did very very well during the depression.No,I dont have any.I know in the last 2 years or so as a group the increases have been huge.
BooBoo :gromit: |
i make my living trading stocks. mostly commodities producers, with a bias toward precious metal miners and energy producers. i think silver will provide more percentage gains than gold in the near to mid term.
hl, paas, ssri, cde, ipt, calvf, nxg, tre, shsh, lots of others, buy the dips, sell the rallies. abandon cash? no. stay as clear of the u.s. dollar as possible? yes. pax t.f. |
When I read the title the first thing that came to mind was that you meant you were only going to use plastic...blech.
So do gold mining stocks work the same as other stocks? And when everyone recommends hiding pieces of gold and silver (like TnTnTn) who are these people that are going to be willing to sell you something for gold and silver? Most people I know wouldn't know what gold or silver looked like, how the heck would I A) convince them it's real and B) convince them it can be used as currency? Kayleigh |
I prefer a bit of actual silver and a wee bit of gold. When (not if) the stock market crashes again, anything on paper will be worthless. Gold and silver will not.
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My recommendation would be a stock that doubles or better every year.
Hogs, cattle, sheep, poultry. I never could stand the taste of mining stock. |
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Gun store owners as a group seem to understand metal right now. BooBoo :gromit: |
I have invested in photovoltaics (solar electricity) and wind power over the years--by buying and installing the equipment to power my home and shop. I can look out the window any day and see my investment working for me.
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From a previous post...
If the dollar goes south,people will recognize real metal,real quick. My reply.... This has been the mantra of the gloom and doomers at least since the mid 1970's, probably longer. It hasn't happened yet. |
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BooBoo :gromit: |
Since 1970, the stock market has been a far better value than gold.
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Since 1970, the stock market has been a far better value than gold. To put that statement into perspective, 37 years have elapsed since the beginning of 1970. Based upon average price of gold for each year since 1970, if you had purchased one ounce of gold each year from 1970 through 2006 you would have 37 ounces of gold for which you would have paid a total of $11,700. Based upon today's market value, that same 37 ounces of gold would now be worth $22,700. A fair return? Yes it is! But since 1970 the average long-term rate of return into the stock market FAR outpaces that! If you took that same cash each year that you had spent on gold since 1970 and invested it into the stock market at the stock market's typical long-term return of 10.4%, your $11,700 would now be worth $31,470. That is $8,770 MORE than the gold is worth! This is NOT compounding anything, but basically a simple interest earning if you had invested in the stock market. It is true that gold has been on an upward trend for a little more than 3 years now and is currently worth about 5 times what it was in the mid 70's. It used to be the government set the value of gold. I don't remember exactly, but I think it was somewhere in the early 1970's when the value of gold ceased to be based upon governmental standards. At that time, the value of gold became based upon supply and demand, as it continues today. Because the price of gold does sometimes fluctuate wildly, if you had paid the average 1980 value of $612 for an ounce of gold in 1980 you would barely break even today ($618). In comparison, if you had invested the same money into the stock market and realized its average long-term rate of return of 10.4% your $612 would now be worth $2,333! That's a gain of $1,721 for your investment in the stock market vs. a gain of $6 for an investment into gold. If you think its an isolated occurrence to earn a higher rate of return into the stock market vs the rate of return into gold, you'd be interested in knowing that in 22 of the last 37 years an investment in the stock market would today outpace the same investment had it been made in gold. And most of those remaining 15 years included the first 4 years of the 1970's when the supply-and-demand model hadn't fully adjusted and the last 8 years during which the average long-term stock market rate of return hasn't had enough time to actualize. It is very risky to buy gold when the price increases rapidly, because nobody knows how long the upward trend will continue before it comes back down. For that reason alone it is a very risky venture to buy gold at today's market value. If you look at the value of gold based upon historical trends you may come to the conclusion that the value of gold may have peaked and set to go back down. If you're looking for investment profit then the mining stocks might be the better value than the gold itself. Historically, the stock market continues to be a better value. |
Since we venture further into the land of fiction kindly advise what the definition of one dollar in real world terms might be.
To help you out, I could buy gas for $.15 per gallon in 1966 so one dollar then could be said to be 6.66 gallons in 1966. Gas now is $2.12 so one dollar could be said to be .47 gallons now. In 1963 an acre of local farmground was worth $400 so one dollar was worth 108.9 square feet. Now farmground is worth $5,000 per acre so one dollar is worth 8.7 square feet. In 1960 terms one ounce of gold weighed one ounce. In 2007 terms one ounce of gold still weighs one ounce. Who cares what the dollar value is as the dollar is undefinable. |
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The concept of Future Value of Money helps determine what an investment of $1 today should be worth at any given point in the future. This concept would have helped someone determine where to invest their $1 in 1966. Based upon factual historical comparisons, the value of gold since 1970 has not kept pace with the value of the stock market. |
No, it doesn't make sense. That is because there is no definition for the value of one dollar. You could define one dollar as being worth 6.66 gallons of gas in 1966 and being worth .47 gallons today. Is it the same dollar? If it is not how can you compare the relative value of one investment scheme over another.
You might be interested in reading about the French experiment with fiat currency starting with the revolution in the late 1700's and ending around 100 years later Quote:
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FIAT MONEY INFLATION IN FRANCE How It Came, What It Brought, and How It Ended - Written around 1914 ftp://ibiblio.org/pub/docs/books/gut...04/fiatm10.txt |
And a lot of stocks failed,and a lot of people lost money.Then again,if you made any money you paid taxes on it.Quite a bit of taxes BTW.
See,REAL money doesnt have to be speculated on to have and retain its value.Therefore holding metal isnt subject to the vagrancies of the market manipulators,or the policies of FEDERAL RESERVE,which ISNT FEDERAL BTW BUT A PRIVATELY HELD BANK. And a dollar sitting next to a gold coin,all things equal,the dollar HAS lost value through inflation every single year,that gold doesnt lose value,because its a real commodity with a world value,while the other is fancy toilet paper with a promise and nothing more. A PROMISE that isnt being kept through devaluation called inflation.And devaluation through the printing of more money,decreasing the value of every dollar out there.The dishonest dollar against the honest metal coin,that rises with inflation and cant be printed into oblivion. But if you think a paper dollar is more valuable than a metal coin,knock yourself out . And go gamble in the 'fixed' market,run by crooks. It isnt like the market cant collapse,eh? But metal,its never collapsed and never will.FIAT currency,on the other hand ,has a LONG history of collapse and failure. Take your choices. BooBoo :gromit: |
For anyone thinking about abandoning cash. Please send the worthless peices of paper to me. I know it is big of me, but I will take the burden off your shoulders.
Cheers Bob |
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It is true that historically, FIAT money ALWAYS ends in excessive inflation. Typically the FIAT money will eventually collapse. But, and this is very important, FIAT money can be replaced by another standard of money. It doesn't have to be replaced by gold or silver money either in order to keep some sembalance of economy going. My point isn't whether our FIAT money will or will not collapse. You said that 6.66 gallons of gas in 1966 is only worth .47 gallons today, and that 108.9 square feet of land in 1963 is worth 8.7 square feet of land today. By the same logic then, your 1 ounce of gold in 1970 is only worth .058 ounces today. No difference if using your logic. You cannot say an ounce in 1966 is the same as an ounce in 2007 unless you also say a gallon or an acre in 1966 is the same weight/measure as in 2007. In terms of standardized weights and measures, these things do not change in time. But the value of a dollar does change, relative to all those weights and measures. Because of this changing value of the dollar, what you say rings true if all we want to do is determine the value of a dollar in 1966 vs 2007 simply in terms of a dollar's worth of purchasing power. Your examples factually suggest that one dollar would buy more in 1966 than it does today. But that does not change the fact that the same one dollar invested in 1966 will be worth more in 2007. Its for this reason that what I posted about investments rings true based upon traditional Future Value of Money formulas. The concept behind the Future Value of Money is the backbone in determining long-term financial decisions. People do invest their money, and if people had invested money every year since 1970 into the stock market instead of into Gold, they'd be better off financially today. When Benjamin Franklin said "Money makes money. And the money that money makes makes more money", he was only pointing out that money can be invested to earn even more money. The following quote is from the link I will provide at the end of this post: "The future value of a dollar is simply what the dollar, or any amount of money, will be worth if it earns interest for a specific period of time." http://thismatter.com/Money/Investme...e-of-Money.htm |
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It lost 40% of its value in less than 2 years. It continued to be valued less than that historic peak right up through 2005. In fact, even as late as 2004 continued to be valued up to more than 50% LESS than its 1980 value. It did not regain its historic peak value until last year, a period of 26 years! Zero % gain on an investment over 26 years is not a good investment! And if history is an indicator, the present value of gold may have peaked again and may soon plummet again. True, it could continue to increase but history suggests it may not last long and people could lose significant amounts of money if they invest during peak highs. Clearly metal most assuredly has collapsed and could collapse again, same as FIAT money. But the fact remains that if a person had invested the same amount of money each year since 1970 in the stock market vs gold, they would most likely be better off financially today by about 50%. You cannot shove the facts under the rug and pretend they do not exist. The facts are that the stock market has historically outpaced gold by far as a long-term investment strategy. |
Just Think!
It would be hard to be sitting around, IF Something happened to the economy, thinking about what you could have bought with the money you lost in the stock market, bank failure, worthless paper money. No wonder men jumped out of windows during the depression. So.. we have decided, if we want something, can afford it, spend. Of course we will have some for a rainy day, but will also have something of colateral value too. Too old to start saving for our old age now. This is how DW convinced me to start looking at a new fridge and stove. :rolleyes:
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I am not too concerned about TEOTWAWKI- in that case all my portfolio will be worthless and my fence, weapons, and garden and our homesteading skills will be our most valuable investments. Otherwise it'll yield us cash enough to pay all bills we need money for except maybe college for two.
That said, my dear bro who advises me (and manages a chunk of our change for us) has advised us to be cash rich now since interest rates are rising and stock returns aren't as hot as they were. For us that doesn't mean sell stocks (which would mean taxes) except the volatile stuff he manages for us, it means less new investment in stocks and more in cash. Also DD heads to college in 5 years and DH may retire in 3 so no use buying stocks we may sell in a few years. BTW dear Bro is, as I say, independently wealthy- works longer than I would want to managing his portfolio (a few hours every week) on the internet- but has his savings from working until he was 32 (11 years ago) making him free of any need to earn outside money. Caveat: as we told DD when she asked why Dad couldn't stay home all day like bro, he has no wife or kids! We hope to be in his shoes when we are late 40's- with help of DH's mil pension- but college bills may require me working again. |
I enjoyed reading this thread quite interesting and funny.
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the currency of the future is AMMO. Buy all you can now. It ain't going to be any cheaper than it is right now.
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If a dollar does crash its likely to result in a global recession/depression. Virtually all industrialize nations hold dollar reserves since they all have significant trade surpluses. If they try to dump them, the dollar would crash causing all of thier exports to the US to come to an instant halt, since few americans could afford to purchase imported goods anymore. In such a situation its highly probable that high employement rates will spread through out the industrialized world (especially in the emerging markets such as China and India). Since lots of people overseas own precious (because a lot of foriegn currencies have been unstable) they will start selling their precious metals to put food on the table. In addition the US, Europe and Asian gov'ts have substantial precious metals in reserves. Its likely that at least some gov'ts will dump their reservers on the market to remove currency volitility as well as fund gov't expenses with. Back in 2003, Germany announced that it would start selling off its gold reserves if its economy failed to make any progress (fortunately for PM owners, Germany's economy did make a comeback, and no transactions were made). If the market is flooded with precious metals it may not maintain value as you expected. Mining companies are also heavly dependant on energy. Since the US imports about 70% of its oil, its likely that mining companies might have difficulty fueling their machinery. I think in a dollar crisis oil exports would drop and the gov't would be forced to put in rationing controls to prevent all hell from breaking loose. Invest in PMs if you wish, but I wouldn't recommend investing all your capital strickly in PMs or PM stocks. That said, I do have doubts about the stability of the US dollar. Its huge trade and fiscal debts are totally unsustainable, Plus we have rising entitlement costs, as Washington continues to expand medical entitlements and large number of boomers are nearing retirement age. Be aware that Europe is in no better shape, since most of Europe has extremely exotic entitlement programs (so I don't recommend investing in the EU). Its also possible that if a economic crisis did occur, that some nations may opt to lock up overseas investments, meaning you would not have the ability to withdraw your capital stuck overseas. There was a article in the Financial Times about a month ago about a drafted EU bill to prevent foriegn investments from leaving during a financial crisis. My first recommendation is to get out of debt, especially variable debt, such as credit cards, student loans, because in the event of a crisis, I would expect the rates to climb much higher. The new bankruptcy laws make it difficult to get out of this debt anymore. One investment strategy is to invest into slow grow staple companies. Even in a depression people still need to wipe there butts, wash their laundry, etc. Its also proven that during bad economcy times, the demand for "sin" goods, such as tabacco, alcohol ,etc rise substantially. If dollar takes a nose dive, and inflation takes hold, these stocks will fair well, because they be able to raise the prices and earnings per share will inflate along with inflation. Business that sell discretionary goods and services (new cars, widescreen tvs, or other durable goods, Tech stocks, Construction, Financial) should be avoided since demand for these goods and services will likely plummet and parts from overseas supplier may be difficult to obtain. If you wish to invest in Bonds, avoid long term bonds, since inflation will eventually drive up interest rates it may be possible to remain above the inflation curve and avoid losses with short term bonds. I would also avoid I-bonds, since the inflation figured are based upon gov't statistics and not real-world inflation rates. Stick with high quality bonds and avoid the risky "high yield" bonds that usually go into default during a financial crisis or recession. Your best option is short term commerical paper which ofters slightly higher yield than treasuries, but are virtual free of deflault risks. If you feel that things will get really bad, stock up on staple items, that you could later barter with. After the fall of the Soviet Union, few Russians traded using precious metals. The big trade commodities were staple goods like toothpaste, soap and vodka after the factories shutdown. Similar results also occured in Argentina after their collapse in 2001 (which is still ongoing today). One investment strategy would to stock up on hard liquier. Which usually goes up in value as it ages (although I am not sure if its value every exceeded inflation rates). Finally don't forget to invest in yourself. If you feel your job may be a risk, it would be a good idea to update your skills. As long as you have a skill that is in demand you shouldn't have trouble getting by. Ideally you want to have a skill on the non-discrestionary side of the economy. Also learn to become self-sufficient. There is no need to pay for something if you can make it or do it yourself. |
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the problem is where am i going to store the SECOND ton of ammo? trading mining stocks is the reason i can afford to buy things in ton lots. (ammo, corn, beans, rice, gasoline, salt, etc... ) pax t.f. |
Well, it seems like it's 6 of one and a half dozen of the other.
Invest in metal - gold, silver, etc. and you can hoard it to your hearts content. Hopefully you tell somebody where you hide it, because if you die suddenly and you buried it in the back yard beside a tree, it could be years or hundreds of years before anybody finds it (and not necessarily your heirs). Or it could possibly never be found. However, hoarding it yourself means you are at risk of being robbed. But the government doesn't know you have the gold or silver, so you don't pay tax on it. Invest in stocks and make a better "return" on income. Ummmm, possibly. You forget that the stock company sends information to the government that details every dividend you received - pay tax on it on your next income tax return. And when you sell the stock that has made a better return than the gold or silver, and you have to pay income tax again. At least people can't steal your stocks, but the company could go bankrupt making your stock certificate (if you have one) worthless. Hide a couple dollars in a safe in your house, and now you have really lost. Not only can those dollars be stolen from you, but those dollars don't breed. Put 5 dollars in and lock it up for 10 years. And when you open it, you still only have 5 dollars - and it won't buy what it could have 10 years ago. Probably the best advice is to save some money for the future, but also enjoy what money you have today. Sure, it is nice to invest for the future and think about what you will do when you are 65 years old and not working anymore, but nobody has any guarantee on how long your life is. You could work hard and struggle today while investing all that money only to die suddenly at age 58. (But your kids will thank you!) Of course, if you buy everything today and invest nothing for the future, you could possibly be an 85 year old person greeting people at Walmart (if you are even able to work then), or deciding if you should eat this month or buy your medication for the month because you aren't able to do both. Enjoy today and save for tomorrow too is the best advice. |
I am going to tell y'all what an oldtimer farmer told me once many years ago, and it has not failed yet:
"Lissen here, I'm a-tellin' you that the whole danged economy should be played by the little man like it was a football game. When you are young like you are now (this WAS years ago!), you want to be out there a-throwing those long bomb passes and trying to get in the end zone and make it big. That's cuz you are young enough to still recover if your pass is incomplete. But as you get older and more my age, you need to shift to a prevent defense, where you might not make the big plays, but you won't stand to lose as much if you do get tackled." By golly, I have followed that to the letter for 15 years or more, and it works good. The stock market is at or near a top, and I am making moves to the sidelines. |
Interesting to read.
One big problem I've always found is that almost everyone wants cash for goods and services. Trying to barter your way through life is darn hard to do. |
I see survivalblog is selling food,taking gold and silver.Gun shop takes it too.More places than you might think have no trouble with taking bullion.You will also see bullion traded at pawn shops.
I know plenty private parties will take it,I sure would gladly if I were selling,I'd even cut the price to take metal. But not Taco Bell or Wally. To add-Metal doesnt probate,and doesnt leave your spouse/heirs looking at frozen bank accts. upon your death. It just quietly grows legs and walks on to were its needed.No muss,no fuss. BooBoo :gromit: |
Excerpts and a link to Ron Paul about metals.One smart man he is!
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/gol...rs/2007/01/19/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- The higher the price for gold, the greater the concern for the dollar. Instead of dwelling on the dollar price of gold, we should be talking about the depreciation of the dollar. In 1934 a dollar was worth 1/20th of an ounce of gold; $20 bought an ounce of gold. Today a dollar is worth 1/600th of an ounce of gold, meaning it takes $600 to buy one ounce of gold. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Though our inflation - i.e. the depreciation of the U.S. dollar - has been insidious, average Americans are unaware of how this occurs. For instance, few Americans know nor seem concerned that the 1913 pre-Federal Reserve dollar is now worth only four cents. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Though everyone decries inflation, trade imbalances, economic downturns, and federal deficits, few attempt a closer study of our monetary system and how these events are interrelated. Even if it were recognized that a gold standard without monetary inflation would be advantageous, few in Washington would accept the political disadvantages of living with the discipline of gold - since it serves as a check on government size and power. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- A foreign policy of militarism and empire building cannot be supported through direct taxation. The American people would never tolerate the taxes required to pay immediately for overseas wars, under the discipline of a gold standard. Borrowing and creating new money is much more politically palatable. It hides and delays the real costs of war, and the people are lulled into complacency - especially since the wars we fight are couched in terms of patriotism, spreading the ideas of freedom, and stamping out terrorism. Unnecessary wars and fiat currencies go hand-in-hand, while a gold standard encourages a sensible foreign policy. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Yep,Ron nails it yet again. Shows the immense wisdom of those who founded our country Lets hear it for Fiat currency counterfeiters, vrs. REAL MONEY as required by the US Constitution. BooBoo :gromit: |
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Actually, land is our big investment captial-wise. Land does not tend to go down. I'm not talking about the over inflated parcels or the minor ups and downs. In addition to that we can live on it, harvest lumber and firewood, grow food, raise livestock and generally thrive. Gold is just so cold and silver gives me shivers. Land lasts. |
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[ :help: , I've fallen on the floor (laughing) and I can't get up!] |
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Is this the same Ron Paul who in another article wrote; “I think we can safely assume that 95 percent of the black males in that city [Washington D.C.] are semi- criminal or entirely criminal.” Is this the same Ron Paul whose “Freedom Watch” newsletter said; "If you have ever been robbed by a black teen-aged male, you know how unbelievably fleet-footed they can be." and; "Opinion polls consistently show that only about 5 percent of blacks have sensible political opinions" and; "We don't think a child of 13 should be held responsible as a man of 23. That's true for most people, but black males age 13 who have been raised on the streets and who have joined criminal gangs are as big, strong, tough, scary and culpable as any adult and should be treated as such." IF this is the same Ron Paul whom you quote as being a "smart man" who "nails it again", then Where Oh Where is the credibility? :shrug: |
Mining stocks?....I wouldn't get too fired up over any of them. For a hard lesson in mining stock take a look at Climax Molybdenum Company. Those of you familiar with Colorado have no doubt heard it mentioned after the collapse in the 80's. Gold and silver-sure, squirrel away a few pieces, but to invest in a mine stock is risky-always has been. Perhaps uranium would be a better bet considering the mutterings over new nuclear power plants. But I would still be wary of putting much money in any of them.
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Best way to think of it is in terms of price of a loaf of bread. A while ago a loaf was 10 cents, now it is at least a dollar. So the real value of the dollar has declined by 10 times.
However we have had a lot of technological prowess and advances in medical technology. So a computer that you can buy for $400 today is faster and better than one you could have bought for $4000 5 years ago. Operations and chemo treatment are better and cheaper than before, with patients recovering faster and having less side effects. I do worry about the USA and how we are spending our money on the wrong things. |
:) This ought to upset some of you servivalists but YES> For the most part I have abandoned cash.
I use my debit card for for almost everything. :) the reason is, I work for a bank that incourages its employees to do that. I can even pay for my food at any fast food place with it. This of course is only when we travel as there is none of those places here. I even pay for feed at the feed store with it. I could pay my bills on line for free but the truth is, I don't have many of those so I just write a check for the 4 I have. No, you can't have my cash because I still need it for shopping at care and share. Our local thrift store. I shop there everyday on my break. Sorry. :rolleyes: |
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The cards folks,SORRY! BooBoo :gromit: |
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