Gold Prices?????

Sorry to chang ethe subject a bit but I dont want to see the thread locked or deleted, I was trying to figure out, (I am afraid I still dont have a good grasp on everything not yet anyway I was to young in 80 to remember what happened) Will the real estate bubble bursting have anything to do with the massive inflation we are seeing? When the bubble busts will land that is currently sold based on vacation and other values for 3k and more an acre return to a value that is more in line with what can be produced agricultually speaking on it? So If the FRN's are declining and will be worth little more than toilet paper shortly what good would it do for me to save FRN's and hope to use them to buy land when the realestate bubble busts like my mom suggested? perhaps it is better to buy land as soon as possible though if the bubble busts before the Dollar becomes practically worthless than it would be better to have FRN's available to buy land at a cheaper price, Or do you think that land prices are not going to go down just houseing prices in most places? I hope I phrased these questions so you can understand and someone can shed a little light on this for me thanks.

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marching to the beat of a different drummer

We have seen the rise of a class of speculators that are having an incredible influence on the world economy. Condo prices rising in Florida? Fly down, stand in line, and buy a few. The price will go up. Insability in oil producing African countries? South American socialist leaders rattling their sabers? Buy a few million in oil futures. Chinese stock market going insane? Dump billions into a market with no transparency and arbitrary government control. Gold reaching new highs every day? Grab your checkbook. The point is that none of this is real. Even though it is going on to the tune of hundreds of billions a day, it has no basis in reality. Eight years ago, a zit faced nineteen year old computer savant could walk into a venture capital office, announce that he was going to sell strawberry flavored dog poop on his website and he would walk out the door with a check for ten million. That wasn't real either and caused the "dot com bubble" to burst. This time it is much more serious. The national debt, soaring oil cost, consumer debt, overvalued real estate, and leadership that is obsessed with world domination. Any one of these factors could turn slightly for the worse and take the whole house of cards down. A lot of people are going to learn a very hard lesson. One day, perhaps just around the corner, gold won't be worth $700/OZ. houses won't bring 3X as much as they cost five years ago, and the guano really is going to hit the proverbial blades.

jnap, if you have cash, if I were you, I'd buy the land now. I know you are overseas, which makes it difficult, but I don't know if your money will still be worth anything by the time you get home, and it will probably take longer (by several years, most likely) for the price of property to come down all the way to be in line with the value of our money (or lack thereof). I'm trying to convince my sister and BIL of the same thing -- they've slowly worked their way up through several fixer houses, until when they sold the last one they had what they thought was enough cash to buy a few acres free and clear and build a little house with no mortgage. They haven't been able to find the land they want (RE went through the roof in their area at the same time they sold their last house), and are still sitting on their savings -- managing some apartments in exchange for free rent, in order to try and save more money. I haven't been able to convince them that they need to buy their land now, while their money is still worth something and still available to them! I'm afraid they'll lose what they've worked so hard for.

Kathleen

Buy the dips, the gold bull is by no means over.

We have the same here in N. Missouri, city folks from Kansas City, Omaha, Des Moines are buying up this old hill ground for as much as $2500 an acre. They rent it back out to the locals any where from $80-$120/acre what they can't signup in CRP program. Most of this land dosn't have a real large crop base and with relestate taxes $4.40/$100 to $6.40/$100, The return is very minumal. At best it would take 75 years for them to pay it of from what they have put into it. The down side for us locals is that it has over inflated the accessed value of our property in return we are paying more for taxes. My worry is that when things do get rough and they already are out here in the rual areas with the price of fuel, and high cost to raise a crop or livestock, these city folk investors aren't going to be able to get $1500/acrea for the $2500/acrea land that in all actuality is worth production wise $500 -$700/acrea we are all going to pay for it down the road. Am I wrong? ........
Chris

Chris, no, you are right. All people have been seeing for years is dollar signs -- nothing else matters, not even making sure that we can grow our own food in this country.

Kathleen

A honest question asked not for purposes of debate but rather genuine curiosity:

If the agenda of the Republican President is to destroy America for the sake of a NWO, then why would the govt. slaughter the Iraq's and the Iranians for wanting/or trying to trade oil in anything other than the dollar. Wouldn't it seem that if the objective is the destruction of this country so that the NWO can be established, then why not let the economy collasp...and then move quickly on the NWO while the Americans and most of the world is struggling and will be willing to allow anything in order to stabilize the economy?

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Christanie Farm...living life as it was intended

I'm not sure anyone understands the answer to that except perhaps the Pres. and his advisors. It does seem very confusing. Except that perhaps the NWO people don't want the Islamic nations having control over the oil, either? The Islamic countries generally aren't very stable, and tend towards a lot of gratuitous violence.

Kathleen

Bluejuniperfarm I dont have the $ now though I will in a 6 months or so,perhaps Godwilling. If what Chris says is right and that $2,500 an acre land declines to 1k or so in a few years when the bubble bursts I fail to see why I would be better off buying it now at inflated prices I mean if I have 10k in two years from now for land even if the $ then is inflated and worth less than now as far as buying power it is still 10k and If the land prices declined I would get that much more land than if I buy now right?

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marching to the beat of a different drummer

jnap, the problem is that the money you have now may be worth nothing in a few years. That's if you can even get it out of the bank, after the banks all close!

Kathleen

I see the point now it is just so hard to imagine but I have read the posts here and other things so I know we are setting ourselves up for it heck it happened in Argentina and it happened in Russia and Germany I guess someone here said all fiat currencies eventually turn to toilet paper. So would it be a gradual decline or will it most likely be sudden, what could bring it on all the other countries not funding our debt anymore and cashing out? Oil being traded in Euro's? If the collapse was close wouldnt we see interest rates they pay on savings bonds go back up to where they were at in 80? they are a long way from there now. What would happen if the USA just defaulted on all that debt? would that make are currency worthless? I see though that it would be better to own land than worthless paper. And I guess have silver saved so as to be able to exchange it for wheel barrow fulls of $100 bills to pay your taxes with. Or would they put taxes on hold I cant imagine the government would take away lots of homes from people during a currency collapse because people could not pay taxes surely not?

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marching to the beat of a different drummer

Jnap and Others,

Here is an opinion. Do with it what you like. I do not undertake to advise anyone how to spend their life or their money, but I will make observations, ask difficult questions, and say how I might address certain situations. To do any more would be to attempt to make others' decisions for them -- and that is not in my "job description".

It is MOST difficult to predict the future and to make wise moves in anticipation of what we think will happen. The best we can do is to make an informed guess based upon realistic information – and hopefully make decisions that are not too destructive if we do not make the best choice among the alternatives available.

What has happened in the past may be some hint as to what will happen in the future, but it is no guarantee (i.e., projections and predictions based on past trends are no guarantee of accuracy). Conditions change, new variables are introduced, time and timing become involved, etc, etc.

Will real estate prices decline? There are many indications that current prices are unsustainably high and that the market is “cooling off” in some formerly “hot” locations. However, prices could increase instead. How will this affect the price of land in Arkansas or Alaska or anywhere else? No one knows for certain. Prices could increase in “getaway” areas while declining in other areas.

Will prices crash abruptly? They might. They might not.

When is it likely to happen? Who knows!

Will the US dollar (FRN) self-destruct? There is some indication that is underway, but it is nowhere near certain at this point. Some very astute moves might reverse trends. I am, however, not optimistic about astute “dollar saving” moves in the public interest being made by the people most heavily involved (Fed, Federal Government, Foreign central banks, Investors, etc).

Therefore, I anticipate a continuing decline in the buying power of FRNs in terms of world commodities, products and resources. I would not be surprised if harsh economic times occur for US citizens and all or most aspects of the economy.

At the level of us “common people” accurate and timely information about the big picture is not available. The best we can do is to manage our time and resources well within the area of our influence. Some see that as going into “survivalist mode”, others choose “preparedness” (less radical) mode and most citizens are unconcerned or oblivious (but evidently becoming aware of conditions).

Would I buy land quickly in anticipation of prices rising? No.
Would I hold off buying land thinking that land prices will decline significantly? No.
Would I try to guess whether land prices will fall faster than dollar value? No.

The number of people who read and participate in this forum is an indication that there is dissatisfaction with “standard” conditions and perhaps a feeling of vulnerability when depending upon “the system” to furnish all one’s needs.

If we want to be certain of being correct no matter what is being considered we can simply say, “This too shall pass away”. I say that, not in any spiritual sense, but in recognition that change, as best we know, is inevitable over time.

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Whether you believe you can or you believe you cannot – you are usually right.

This does not include flying or moving mountains unassisted or attempting to prove the existence of an “afterlife”.

Thanks for your thoughtful and insightful words Obser1, I am going to go to sleep now as it is late. Oops just got kicked off the computer it is busy now days.

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marching to the beat of a different drummer

Obser, you make many good points. The thing right now is that if Iran actually goes to trading oil in euros, rather than dollars, in July, as they say they are going to, that will remove the backing from the dollar. Our dollar used to be backed by gold. We went off the gold standard, and onto the 'oil standard' I think back in the seventies, meaning the dollar has been backed by oil, rather than gold.

Now we have several thing happening. One is that we are so far in debt, and have exported so much of the industry that actually adds value to raw materials, that our economy has become a house of cards.

One is that oil is Peaking, meaning the era of cheap, plentiful oil is about over.

And another, related to the first two, is that other countries, knowing our weaknesses, have the intention of dumping us (the way an old-fashioned horse-breaker would dump a wild horse, by catching one foot with a rope). They intend to do this by removing the oil backing from the dollar. That is the reason behind Iran (and Venezuela, Russia, and possibly other countries) saying they are going to go off the dollar standard for the oil they sell. This will immediately make the dollar worthless in international commerce, and will in short order cause devastation at home, as well.

Now, it's possible that Bush intends to attack Iran to prevent this (I'm not even going to talk about the morallity of that). It's possible that something else will happen to prevent it. But, if it is NOT prevented, you can expect to see major economic troubles coming our way by the end of this year at the latest, probably by the end of the summer. People who know a whole lot more about economics than I do are extremely concerned right now, even some who aren't normally 'doomers'.

Kathleen

Edited to add: Here's a link to a thread at TB2K that has some good explanations of what's going on. http://www.timebomb2000.com/upload/s...d.php?t=197451

Just up in Shasta county where new houses just on the market are going for LESS than 12 months ago.They have gone from standing in line to buy,to looking for buyers in 12 months.

Word is they are over built.

Wonder if other areas arent too?

I think the big real estate runup is coming to an end.

BooBoo

Well said as far as gold goes.(boo and obser- I knew you guys couldn't let this thread slide by :}) So I'll keep it short n sweet cause it just feels like the same ol' thing I tell everyone over and over.

All Fiat currencies eventually fail.
Gold has been money for hundreds of years.
The US is on its 3rd fiat currency since its existence.
3 silver dimes still buy a gallon of gas.
It is different this time cause of 'electronic credit'- the printing press may not be needed. The expansion of credit could truely be mind numbing.
Look at any economic/commodity chart since 2000. Y2k had nothing to do with computers, but everything to do with the world economic order.
Kondratieff winter is here and Ben is no Paul Volker.
Govt is reactive not proactive.
Govt functions best when the people are in a state of fear.
Fiat will continue to expand and be debased.
Natural resources ARE finite.
Inflation is more politically acceptable than deflation.
History today is not written is stone.
The govt is not scared of the people who read books, they are scared of the ones that watch TV.
There is no 'truth' or 'lie'.. there is no 'right' or 'wrong' just opinion and the concequences of actions.

As is religion, people have their own beliefs which may have no factual basis. Belief in the dollar, or their govt is no exception. That is why 'faith' is essential in a fiat currency. A good conversation of facts and ideas will never change the opinion of a 'true beilever'... don't waste your time.

Trying to change the system is a futile effort. Until a true 3 party system emerges in th US, don't waste your time.

Check your calendar... RFID, sat thermal imagery, gps, digital money, biometrics, wireless communications. Does your watch say 1984 ?

In another 30 years I will guess that 3 silver dimes will still buy a gallon of gas.

So much for being short.
oh yea, while I have my crystal ball out... how bout $25.00 silver and $1000.00 gold by new years.

If I'm wrong, I'll eat this post.

1000 gold,maybe,25 silver,I doubt.

Bet its higher though.

BooBoo

Kathleen,thats an excellent link for explaining the oil/dollar vrs euro thing.
And also key to whats going on in world politics.

BooBoo

Hey gang thanks for sheading a whole lot of insight on whats going on. To be honest with you I've been so busy trying to pay for gas to go to work that I have not been following the economy, national/world politics, or as a fact to the mater even the weather much. That being said I believe that tommorrow will be different than today, good or bad, different. So I guess it goes with out saying when life/world throws lemons at you what do you do? pucker or make lemon aide.

Putting a copy of this thread in my "doom and gloom" folder - I've been saving things like this for years, and it's really fun to go back and look at them later.

People thrive on believing that disaster is right around the corner. Perhaps one day they'll be right. In the meantime, I'll save a copy of this thread and leave myself a note to bring it back a year from now.

Money is always looking for a place to go. It was dot-coms, then real estate. Now it's gold and silver. My belief is that the gold-silver bubble will be shorter-lived than the previous bubbles have been. These cycles seem to compress over time.