The most detailed projection yet

[primroselane]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/17/national/17heat.html

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 16 - A scientific study released on Monday presents an alarming view of climate changes in California, finding that by the end of the century rising temperatures could lead to a sevenfold increase in heat-related deaths in Los Angeles and imperil the state's wine and dairy industries.

The study, published in the online version of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, offers the most detailed projection yet of changes in California as temperatures rise around the world because of building concentrations of heat-trapping gases.

Under one of two scenarios, in which fossil fuel use continues at its present pace, the study determined that summertime high temperatures could increase by 15 degrees in some inland cities, putting their climate on par with that of Death Valley now. That scenario also foresaw a reduction of 73 percent to 90 percent in the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada, resulting in disrupted water supplies from the San Francisco Bay Area to the Central Valley.

Even in the second scenario, which assumed significant increases in the use of renewable energy like wind and solar power, the study concluded that fossil fuel emissions could push average high temperatures up by four to six degrees - the difference, one author said, between the temperature in Yosemite National Park and downtown Sacramento.

The study warned that the higher temperatures could have devastating consequences for wine grapes, which could ripen more quickly and be of poorer quality, and for cows, which could produce less milk. In cities like Los Angeles, it found, the number of days of extreme heat could increase by four to eight times. It projected that heat-related deaths in Los Angeles, which it said averaged 165 annually during the 1990's, could double or triple under the moderate scenario and grow as much as seven times under the harsher one.

[kathy H]

I dont know. All I do know is that I have had to run my air almost straight for the last month, didnt have to last summer. Kathy in calif.

[stonerebel]

Its because of those SUV drivers and those evil dairy cows with stomach problems.

Don't forget those evil conservatives who spray aerosol into the air for fun!

mc

[YuccaFlatsRanch]

But on average over the last 5 -6 years its been cooler and wetter in Texas. The winters have been warmer. These are good things. Cycles come and go - its a bad cycle for California now I guess.

I still have zero trust in the models they use to "prove" global warming. They don't take into account things like the sun. Show me one that realistically describes the past and accounts for ALL previous changes and isn't sponsored by some special interest group and then I will look at their data. Until then - NOPE - won't believe it is other than cyclical.

[Cyngbaeld]

Yeah!!! YuccaFlatsRanch !!! Ditto

[Grandmotherbear]

Read "High Tide" by Mark Lynas. Then go and insulate your house and trade in your gas guzzling SUV on a more gas-economical car. Those two steps, he believes, would halt the drastic rise in average temperatures which he has used weather records going back centuries to detail.
Even if you don't believe in global warming, those two things would surely help your pocket book.
I do believe the next wars are going to be over potable water- not oil.

[Bob in WI]

I still have zero trust in the models they use to "prove" global warming. They don't take into account things like the sun. Show me one that realistically describes the past and accounts for ALL previous changes and isn't sponsored by some special interest group and then I will look at their data. Until then - NOPE - won't believe it is other than cyclical

I am an astronomy fan, and after reading many articles about the affect of the sun. Global warming has little to do with human activity. the activity may add somewhat to the affect of the sun, but it is not at all the cause.


I am also concerned about those who get almost unlimited government grants to prove that we have some sort of problem that they alone can fix. ie. the global warming scientists. Computer models are exactly that, models. They are not reality, they are just theories.

[bergere]

Do not care if the scientists are correct or not...Things will happen wither I want it to or not..sigh ~ ~
Its been warmer and very dry here the last couple of years... ..yuck....

For every one of the latest theories, there's another one AND a study to back it up.

http://www.newscientist.com/news/new...270&lpos=home3

We didn't do it, blame it on the sun for cosmic rays. Another cyclical event we had nothing to do with, just like the ozone hole over the antartica and global cooling they warned us of 30 years ago.... Or did everyone forget about the next ice age and glaciers that were threatening to wipe out Canada and cover the USA? It was suppose to have started showing "evidence" by the turn of the century.

[Bob in WI]

Its been warmer and very dry here the last couple of years... ..yuck....

Depends on where you live. We have been cold and wet, setting many records this year alone.

Whether or not man has anything to do with global warming is really not a factor in answering the question of climate change. Is the climate changing? Yes. Do we contribute to that? Yes. If we did not exist would all this still happen? Yes. The reallity of the earth's near( in the relative sense) future is for climate change to occur. So called greenhouse gases will build up in our atmosphere, even without man, the earth is naturally releasing far more carbon then we are. Right now in our northern areas across the globe permafrost is thawing and as it does it will release lots of trapped carbon. There are all kinds of sources and we must remember this process is natural and has happened many times before!! Eventually as gases build up and the planet becomes warmer the polar caps will melt, further changing the climate. This process will occur over thousands of years and "signs" of it will not be visible to the average person. The weird part to all this is how it leads to global cooling and another eventual ice age. What we have to remember is this has also happened before and our ancestors were here for it. Man lived just fine through the last ice age, even without oil heat and down comforters. The panic over all this is as silly as that over how to prevent forest fires. Why would you want to prevent it? What audacity man has to think he can stop the natural way of things? If you cut down the tress there will be no forest. If you remove all the dead and fallen trees, you take the homes to many species. No matter what you do, if you try to prevent a natural process you upset the balance. Like forest fires this must occur, species will die out, new species will evolve, life will continue. Man will be the only creature sitting around worrying.
This planet does not need our meddling in its affairs, which frees us up to go out and enjoy the wonders of nature.

[Bob in WI]

Whether or not man has anything to do with global warming is really not a factor in answering the question of climate change.

It is important in the context that many, like Al Gore, are making money scaring folks with his book of gloom and doom, without realistic scientififc evedence. Unfortunately many believe this pile of c**p.


Millions of dollars are spent on global warming research, which to date has really proven nothing that I am aware of. Models do not coulnt, as they are only theory. If those doing the research can say there is a problem, and con someone out of some money to pay them a salary, unfortunately it will be done.

[mikell]

Well here is South West Michigan I've only had the air on 3 days this year and last week we had a record low / high. Don't believe everything you read on the net is rule #1.

mikell

[Bob in WI]

mikell said:

Don't believe everything you read on the net is rule #1.

So everything you have said is a lie, correct? :haha:

[mightybooboo]

It seems to me its been warmer here than when I was a kid.My perceptions off,or climate change,I dont know.But the earth will change constantly,that is a given.Why? Beats me,it just does,so I accept it.
BooBoo

[Torch]

When they can reliably tell me what the weather will be like tomorrow I'll start looking for them to tell me reliably what the weather will be like the day after tomorrow. Then I'll wait for them to be able to reliably tell me what it will be like 3 days from now. Once they are able to predict the weather accurately looking forward 100 years THEN I will know that they fully understand what causes the weather to change and will listen. Until then, pooey on youey.

[Joy in Eastern WA]

Torch, my thoughts exactly! How can these bozos tell us how everything is going to be 100 years from now when they can't even predict the weather or the exact course of a hurricaine? Many lives were lost last week because they listened to the weatherman. Thought that storm was going further up the coast and then inward.

And we're all suppose to believe what they predict 100 years from now? ROTFLMAO!!!

[mikell]

So everything you have said is a lie, correct?


Could be But would I lie to YOU!!! I'm a nice guy.



???????

mikell

[Bob in WI]

Could be But would I lie to YOU!!! I'm a nice guy.

You probably are. Thanks for your reply.