Interactive drought map

[dragonjaze]

This is an eye-opening map to the changes in the drought conditions from Jan 2011 til now:
Interactive: Mapping The U.S. Drought : NPR

[Sonshine]

Looks like our area has been promoted to exceptional.

[silverseeds]

I cant speak for any other area, but this map is absolutely false for the area I live in in NM. (other parts of NM I know its atleast partly true)

I know 3 people at the elevation I am at here, who all measure such things, historically speaking we have been in an unusually wet trend for a long time.

Im not sure the technicalities of such a thing, but much of the central areas of this nation actually switch between wet eras, and arid eras. Its been "wet" since around the civil war or so. (this is why it was all grasslands when for the last 150 plus years or so it easily supports forests) So like I said, Im not sure the technicalities of what youd call it, but this area WILL eventually head back into a longterm arid period that will last several human generations. If the trend for a decade has been drier and drier, that arid era for our nations breadbasket very well might be now. (although it has smaller shifts as well such as the 30s) Would that be called a drought if its completely within the natural cycles of an area??? Sounds a bit more like humans having to short of a timescale in their reasoning. Or perhaps political posturing.

[MO_cows]

It looks right at the end, July 2012, showing our area in "extreme" drought. But during the winter months of 2011-2012, it doesn't show our area in drought at all and we had the warmest, driest winter I can remember.

[westend]

This type of map and declaration only goes down to the county level is my understanding. If the county is severely effected by drought it goes on the map --that does not mean 100% of the land in the county has to be in drought conditions. So you can have land at elevation or in micro climates that is not suffering. From what I understand the declaration rolls up from the county to the State and the State's to the Feds.

I don't see politics in these types of maps --the opposite actually. The negative impact of declaring a mega-disaster such as this are significant. Commodity markets, stock prices, etc. etc. globally take a hit. You'd want to hide this reality as long as possible, not advertise it.

Whether it is a shorter term cycle (5-10-20years) or a longer term shift in climate pattern is to be determined. In the meantime, it's happening.

[silverseeds]

Originally Posted by westend

I don't see politics in these types of maps --the opposite actually. The negative impact of declaring a mega-disaster such as this are significant. Commodity markets, stock prices, etc. etc. globally take a hit. You'd want to hide this reality as long as possible, not advertise it.

Whether it is a shorter term cycle (5-10-20years) or a longer term shift in climate pattern is to be determined. In the meantime, it's happening.

I think you kinda missed my point to a degree. (you seem to be replying to me)

I also said it might just be short term thinking, or technicality, but cyclically speaking if past cycles remain true most of what we now call the breadbasket will be semi arid for many human generations. with smaller shifts such as the 30s in between, all technically normal. So personally Im not so sure it is accurate to call it a drought for an area this is actually normal in.

As for markets, watch them closer, the big players LOVE good OR bad news, the make their money not on holding the right stocks longterm as most do but in the shifts up or down. especially commodities folks. Our politicos are clearly owned in my personal opinion, so political posturing is actually to be expected. In fact I can say with no doubt in a historical timeframe the climate is actually in a rather stable period, yet most are lead to believe the opposite, very obvious political posturing.

And yes we have no way to know if we are heading into one of the longer term shifts towards a long term arid era in what is now our breadbasket. Looking at past cycles though it is likely rather soon, even in human terms.

If we do not form a long term view though we are in trouble. Our ag system we have now is in historical terms EXTREMELY fragile. this type of thing levels cultures. If we expect the breadbasket to remain as it is now, we are completely naive (no matter your stance on AGW or anything else) whether it is a short term trend currently or the long term trend that WILL come if the area follows past cycles, it IS to be expected. We would be wise to have systems that account for this.

(in fact my lifes work is exactly that)

[rambler]

Originally Posted by silverseeds

If we do not form a long term view though we are in trouble. Our ag system we have now is in historical terms EXTREMELY fragile. this type of thing levels cultures. If we expect the breadbasket to remain as it is now, we are completely naive (no matter your stance on AGW or anything else) whether it is a short term trend currently or the long term trend that WILL come if the area follows past cycles, it IS to be expected. We would be wise to have systems that account for this.

(in fact my lifes work is exactly that)

I guess I'm a little confused as to what would be better than we have now, or more robust?

--->Paul

[Awnry Abe]

Nice map. Has anyone ever tried to nail down the definition of 'drought'? This map seems to be based on "dryness", whatever that is. Dryness sounds better than total rainfall to me as a measurement of drought. (e.g. It could rain so hard in one burst that I could canoe down my driveway. My ponds would re-fill, but my pastures would likely be right back where they were in a week).

[opportunity]

All I know is that dryness/drought is not fun to deal with when you are trying to farm. My hay fields are the worst they have been in the history of this area. We lease a field from a 94 year old who has live her whole life here she thinks I forgot to irrigate our yeild is so bad and I was a water hog it just wasn't enough with no rain and lots of wind.

[julieq]

I don't know why southern Idaho is listed as 'moderate dry'. We're in the high desert, so we get very little rainfall anyway. All of our irrigation here is either with wells, or most often with canal water. As far as I know, we had a late winter last year, but plenty of snow pack eventually on the surrounding mountains.

[ET1 SS]

I cut and pasted this from different sites, just trying to get all of it into a single document.

From 1930 until now the USA has been experiencing droughts at fairly regular intervals.

1930 to 1936 (in some areas until 1940) centering in Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas.

1950 to 1951 in Southwestern United States, New Mexico and Texas.

1953 to 1957 the Central Plains, Midwest and certain Rocky Mountain States, in 1956 Nebraska reached a drought index of -7

From 1950 to 1957, Texas experienced the most severe drought in recorded history.

In the mid 1960s Northeastern United States were hit with devastating drought which lasted 5 years from Virginia into Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York; the drought also affected certain Midwest States.

Short term droughts hit particular spots of the United States during 1976 and 1977.

1980 and 1983 drought affected the Northeast US, Corn Belt and Midwest States.

Heat waves during 1980 caused between 4000 to 12000 deaths in the United States.

1983 Multiple disaster declarations went out in Indiana, across the Midwest, Ohio Valley Regions and Great Lakes.

Kentucky declared the 1983 drought their second worst in the 20th century;
The associating heat waves killed between 500-700 people in the United States.

1985 to 1987. drought hit in the Carolinas into Alabama. Atlanta, Georgia recorded their worst drought on record.

1988 to 1989. Southeast and California the year before, this drought spread from the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Midwest, Northern Great Plains and Western United States. This drought was widespread, unusually intense and accompanied by heat waves which killed around 4800 to 17000 people across the United States. It continued across the Upper Midwest States and North Plains States during 1989, not officially ending until 1990.

1993 ...

1999 ...

2002 ...

There were extensive droughts through the 2000s (decade) all over the Southeastern United States, continuing as far westward as Texas. The Southeastern United States were affected by heavy droughts extending from the Carolinas toward Mississippi and even into Tennessee and Kentucky. Droughts affecting Florida were so severe lakes were actually drying out.

Severe droughts and heat during 2005 hit Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, southeast Iowa and northern Illinois

In 2008 and 2009, much of south and south-central Texas were in a state of exceptional drought

From 2008-2011 the state of California endured through a three-year drought.

Then last year Texans were saying that they were in the 'drought of a century'.

[zwarte]

According to the maps, my place is in an extreme drought area. However, I have had plenty of rain. There are mushrooms popping up in my garden. The spring is flowing strongly.

Just lucky, I guess.