Quote:
Originally Posted by suitcase_sally
ps. gold and silver is the next bubble to burst. It happened before and will again.
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When folks say that, I ask:
1. What makes gold/silver "valuable" in terms of paper dollars ?
My answer is people think the dollar is going down in value ( buying less for the same number of dollars ), and are looking for a place that will retain purchasing power.
2. What makes a paper dollar go down in value ?
Printing more and more of them.
3. So for gold/silver to be in a bubble, wouldn't paper dollars are about to be MORE valuable....and there be less of them....and prices on things like food, fuel, etc, going down ?
Yes...that is correct.
4. So take a look at this chart. Are paper dollars about to suddenly become scarce ?
Uh.....I don't think so. If anything, we're about to experience another round of printing that will make the first round look like a small spike.
WHAT do you think that will do to the "price" of gold ?
People say "it happened before" ( referring to the late 70's ) and I agree. The FED took steps to make the dollar more valuable.....they raised interest rates sky high. That made the dollar and dollar denominated debt more desirable than gold and brought the price back down.
BUT remember the times: the national debt was under a trillion ( vs. 13.6 trillion today ). The economy was still fairly sound. And even then, it stopped housing dead for 2-3 years.
WHAT do you think would happen TODAY if the FED raised rates ? The economy would go more in the toilet than it already is, and the interest on the govt debt would become more than they take in taxes.
SO, I'll worry about the price of gold/silver coming down when I see SOME hint of the FED raising rates and shutting off the printing press.
Until then, gold IS NOT in a bubble.....it is mere a reflection of how sorry the "dollar" is.
See ya at gold $3000.