Grain shortage???

Danaus29 · #1 04/11/08, 02:04 PM

This is strange and a bit scary. Couldn't get scratch from my regular supplier because the mill supposedly lost his order. Went to TSC to buy scratch and they also had none! They did have bird seed which is what the ducks will be eating tomorrow. Has anyone else noticed a grain shortage?

#2 04/11/08, 02:09 PM

No shortage around here (Gainesville, FL area). It's just going to cost about twelve bucks a bag.

.....Alan.

Windy in Kansas · #3 04/11/08, 02:09 PM

Surely you jest or don't read much on the forums.

Since harvest last year, which was poor in a number of places for a number of reasons, supplies have tightened with some stores running out from time to time. Various grains, not just one. Along with supplies the supply and demand theory have cause much higher prices.

stranger · #4 04/11/08, 02:11 PM

yes, but it has been on going for a yr, and prices have gone up 50%. next year it will be a lot worse.. farmers are growing corn for ethanol and no grain to eat, i think bread has even gone up by 80%

**Terri** · #5 04/11/08, 02:27 PM

Bread has gone up 50 cents per loaf.

sbeerman · #6 04/11/08, 02:31 PM

There is a story on corn prices here.
http://www.capitalpress.com/main.asp...rticleID=40681
I read last week there might be rationing of corn. How would this work? Soilent Green anyone?
Sandie OR 5/6

Danaus29 · #7 04/11/08, 08:51 PM

I knew the prices were up. And I know there wasn't near as much grown last year as there had been in previous years. I was just asking if anyone else was having a hard time getting grain.

insocal · #8 04/11/08, 08:57 PM

When Gene Logsdon's new edition of Small-Scale Grain Raising comes out later this year, I strongly suggest EVERYBODY get a copy of it for their reference library.

I have an old original copy of it that I won't part with for love or money.......

Sabrina67 · #9 04/11/08, 10:56 PM

The regular ground "cattle feed" here has went from 11.00 for 100 lbs to 17.50 per hundred. They tell us it is because of the hay shortage because of the drought and that corn is sky high. I could understand the hay part as it is 85 for a good roll, but it makes it very hard. I know we went for several months this last summer without a single drop of rain. Corn here dried up in the fields, maybe that is what is wrong.

grimm_mojo · #10 04/11/08, 11:10 PM

a friend of mine gonna let me grow some grain at is place that i will use for feed

tomstractormag · #11 04/12/08, 02:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by insocal

When Gene Logsdon's new edition of Small-Scale Grain Raising comes out later this year, I strongly suggest EVERYBODY get a copy of it for their reference library.

I have an old original copy of it that I won't part with for love or money.......

Please tell me more. Will the new addition have new stuff or is it just a reprint? I do have the original. VERY good book. I have quite a few of Genes books. Common sense stuff all of them. Should be read by all who eat food.
I am getting back into grain production this year after years of not farming more than our kitchen garden. Not to make a >killing< on high prices but to make sure people on my watch do not go hungry due to high prices. And have a secure food supply myself.
Tom

FalconDance · #12 04/12/08, 07:24 AM

Prices have been high for several months AND the grain elevator (actually a MFA type coop) demands your name, addy and intent. They say that due to 9-11 the govt requires it for all agricultural purchases. *I* want proof --- I'm not buying freakin' anhydrous, for crying out loud!

chickenista · #13 04/12/08, 07:29 AM

There has been a constant shortage here since last summer.. twice recently I have gone to my favorite feed store and walked into the back and seen nothing but empty space..no wheat, no barley, (I haven't been able to get wheat consistently in ages and haven't even seen barley in 8 months or more), no milo, no oats and only a little corn..
At the end of last summer there was a waiting list for corn and wheat..
Very unnerving, but I suppose it is the norm in many parts of the world.. oh.. and forget about hay!! There hasn't been consistent hay in ages...

Windy in Kansas · #14 04/12/08, 08:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stranger

farmers are growing corn for ethanol

The corn report came out a while back and many farmers planting intentions have shifted from corn to soybeans and wheat and others. The reason--extremely high input costs. With some fertilizers hovering around $1,000
per ton and corn being a heavy feeder the switch crops for a better bottom line profit.

celticfarmgal · #15 04/12/08, 08:46 AM

did you hear about the tomato guy he decided this year that it wasn't worth planting due to the min wage going up and all his migrant farm workers ( mostly illegals I think) getting run off by immigration. Said he would rather keep his millions ( he is one of the largest producers of tomatoes for us) than spend it on seed and prepping his field this year so wonder what the ketchup prices and everything else made wiith tomatoes are gonna do

FalconDance · #16 04/12/08, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by celticfarmgal

so wonder what the ketchup prices and everything else made wiith tomatoes are gonna do

Well, at *this* household, between us and the neighbors (we're beginning/building a tiny "food preps co-op" of sorts), we're growing enough tomatoes for sauce and ketsup for both households! Not that that will put a dent in the profits of this guy, but it sure will keep $$$ and nutrition in our pockets!

rambler · #17 04/14/08, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danaus29

I knew the prices were up. And I know there wasn't near as much grown last year as there had been in previous years. I was just asking if anyone else was having a hard time getting grain.

Still huge piles of corn sitting outside here in southern Minnesota, there is no shortage.

Actually, the country grew a record amount of corn last year, not 'less'!

Prices are up because our dollar has fallen so much in value compared to other countries - they are willing to buy our corn & soybeans and wheat now; when they could not afford to buy from the USA, or the grains were cheaper from South America in past years. We are exporting a record amount of grains.

This has people speculating that grain will go up in price. This makes prices go up. This makes some feed mills or small regions of the country have spot shortages - your feed mill didn't plan well enough to buy enough corn ahead of time at a lower price, etc. They were gambling, and lost the gamble, and now have to srcounge around for corn at a price they are willing to pay....

It is more a shortage of money than a shortage of actual feed supplies!

We will have rather tight supplies of grain in 2009 (from the crops we grow in 2008). The cost of fuel, fertilizer, seed, iron, and etc. has gone up by 50% or more in some cases, and it would be impossible to grow crops for cheaper prices. As mentioned in the tomato grower's case, if you got real cheap grain prices, farmers would stop growing grain because we could not afford to.

As of February a lot of farmers plan to grow more soybeans, less corn. This needs to be adjusted a bit, with higher corn prices for a month or 2 - convince farmers to plant a few more acres of corn. Typically this would lower the price of soybeans, but political issues in South America have other countries still buy soybeans from the USA this month, so soybean prices are holding their own.

Right now we are looking at some of the highest grain prices we will see. Things likely will drop over summer.

UNLESS there is a widespread weather problem in a large area of the country. This could make very wild, very short-term price spikes.

--->Paul

rambler · #18 04/14/08, 11:26 AM

If you buy feed, here is the bottom line:

Right now is a bad time to be buying feed. The govt, other governments, USA farmers, and USA businesses are trying to sort out how much of each crop we need to plant this summer for use in 2009. This makes for a real roller coaster price swing type of thing.

If you buy feed, it would be good to lock in prices around harvest time - fall - most years. Typically that is the lowest price of the year.

Do to global ecconomic issues (mostly sparked by the unaffordable housing loans too many took out) this year is a bigger roller coaster than normal for grain prices.

Be prepared for weather scares to make grain prices rocket up steeply yet; but most likely grain prices will level off and settle lower by fall.

As well, look for meat prices to rise a whole lot 6-18 months from now. It takes that long for grain price swings to filter threough the meat values. Actually meat might get cheaper here for a few months, as farmers sell off their livestock. Just a head's up.

None of this is new, farming is a series of cycles up & down, we are going through another one. Learn what the cycles are, so you can buy low, sell high. Doesn't always work, but it improves your odds and at least you know what is going on!

--->Paul

hotzcatz · #19 04/14/08, 05:43 PM

Our small community of folks buy our flour from a co-op. My friend tried to order the usual 50# bag of flour and they were out. She tried for 20# and they were out. I don't know if she was able to get any flour at all. That was last week, though, things are different now.

The woman who ran our small local bakery died several weeks ago and her son was just in cleaning things out today. They are going to have the bakery up for sale soon - if anyone wants a small bakery in Hawaii? Lovely location with great ocean views. Anyway, they didn't want the flour and other perishables and gave all of it to the local community folks. I just finished unloading twenty fifty pound bags into my garage after giving away about that many and I'm not even sure what all of it is yet. There's at least 50# of dry milk, 40# of dried yeast (in handy 2# bricks), about 300# of "kosher" flour and a whole lot of "special" flour made especially for that bakery. That probably means it is stone ground whole wheat. 150# of wheat gluten and I'm not sure what all else. Soon as I get some lunch (missed breakfast but when someone offers you a half ton of flour if you can get it right now you miss breakfast) I'll have to look around and see who else could use a hundred pounds of flour or so.

As we were shifting bags of flour around, my friend was discussing a tiller we have which they can borrow. Or if we get that tractor, we can store it up in their barn if they can use it a bit. She wants to put in a half acre of grain of some sort just because grains are getting so hard to get.

milkinpigs · #20 04/14/08, 08:43 PM

You can thank the government's ethanol mandate.

Look back to the fall of 2006 and see how corn suddenly became valuable with the guarenteed 1.38 per buschel subsidy paid to ethanol producers.As the value of corn went up,spurred by traders knowing there was a govt. backed profit got involved.As corn went up all other feed was driven up as well.

If ethanol is so important that U.S. producers must be subsidised; if it's so vital to solving the energy crisis; if it's so important that there is mandated usage through the year 2015;why is there a 54 cent tariff on the importation of foreign ethanol?If the govt. is trying to lower prices at the pump, why not let in as much ethanol that theSouth American countries can send us?

if it as simple as less corn being grown driving up the price, then why did corn producers continue to grow more corn than could be sold?