How will rising grain prices effect the future?

[Beeman]

http://www.usatoday.com/money/indust...s_N.htm?csp=34

Putting fuel in our tanks might not be as important as other issues come about. We all saw the immediate price jump in animal feeds and milk but that was probably just the beginning.
Antoher factor that the article gives insight to is how the baker will shift to a lower quality lower priced wheat. This is a small business that still must stake it's reputation on quality so I feel small bakers will have some integrity and quality control. Unfortunately how many loaves of bread do small bakers provide this country with compared to what the mega bakers provide? How many more small businesses will fail due to increased price and unavailability of materials? How much poorer quality do we want our food to become?

[sammyd]

The jump in milk was not all related to feed costs. There is a huge demand worldwide. This year is the first in a very long time that the USA was a net exporter of dairy goods. Farmers don't set the price they get for milk, the milk plants do whether the farmer is paying 2.50 a bu for corn or 4.50 a bu the milk plant pays what they want.
As far as poorer quality wheat that will be fed to animals. There are some standards in place even within larger companies as far as quality that must be met, and there are standards as to what sorts of grains can be sold for food vs feed. I don't expect quality to drop as much as I expect quantity to drop.

[rambler]

The USA dollar is losing value to other currencies. At the same time, countries that used to export grain are now importing it - thier ecconomies are stronger.

So, the world is more eager to buy our grain. It's an ecconomics thing.

The rest of the world has not trusted buying grain from the USA since Jimmy Carter, we were the last door anyone would knock on. So our grain got real cheap the last 30 years - our dollar was strong, world demand was low. Things have turned around the past 5 years, and no one noticed, no one paid attention. Good for us, the grains are finally getting to be worth something. Dad got paid close to $5 a bu for corn, over $12 a bu for beans, and $9 a bu for wheat at times back in his day. We haven't seen prices like that in a long time. Grain is give-away prices.


Property taxes are up. Fuel prices are up. Fertilizer prices are up. Seed prices are up. Steel prices are up.

It only follows that grain prices _have_ to go up some, or no one will go to the bother of growing grains any more.


For wheat specificially, the world got itself in a bit of a pickle. Austrialia went dry couple years in a row; USA no one paid for wheat any more so we gave it up some, easier to grow other crops if you can; Africain countries put themselves into political problems so agriculture doesn't work any more they are so twisted up. Whole globe kinda asleep at the wheel & let the supplies get short. The USA is selling more wheat per week that we can sustain until next summer harvest..... Expect wheat prices to go up unless something changes in othe parts of the world or the USAputs on an embargo.

Folks need to wake up and appreciate ag. In the USA, it's just a dumping ground. Pipeline, subdivision, wildlife easement, steal some ag land for it, can't bother any other groups. Highways are now diverted around 'waste' land because it is too valuable for wildlife - put the highway through a bunch of fields, they aren't worth anything to anyone.....

Farm subsidies are way, way down the past 2 years. Grains are finaly worth enough to support themselves. When grain is cheaper than it costs to produce, everyone with a full stomach complains about the tax money to farmers. When grain prices are high enough to pay for the grain, then everyone with full stomachs complians grains are too high priced.

So it goes. People get what they deserve.

Fuel production has very little to do with it.

--->Paul

[Up North]

Paul -A few questions about seed price increases?...If I may.
For example, What is the price of a bag of Roundup Ready Soybeans? So folks get some perspective, how many of these bags would be required to plant an 80 acre field of soybeans?
Same question for Corn?
Based on your experiences from seeing how your father's generation farmed versus how today's mainstream rowcrop farmers farm...When farmers were able to save back a protion of their crop and have it cleaned for next year's seed, were their seed costs *significantly* less than they are these days, or has seed gone up in price at a similar pace to other crop inputs?

[wwubben]

One bag of roundup ready soybean seed will cost at least $28.That will plant about one acre.One bag of triple stacked seed corn will cost about $200 and plant a little under three acres.That is just the beginning of the crop expense.
You also have fertilizer,herbicides,machinery,fuel,insurance,sto rage,and it goes on.

[crafty2002]

What I would like to know is why does a farmer need to buy seed???? I had a really bad year in the gardens I planted this year because of deer and ground hogs, but I saved enough seed to plant 10 times the garden I planted this year.
I could probably plant two acres from the seed I saved and it isn't like it's hard to save seed.
And yes, I have already geminated some of the seed just to see and they all seem to be viable.
No, I am wrong. I brought in corn and let it dry and set in the living room watching TV and on the comercials I stripped it from the cobs. I probaby have enough corn to plant 5 acres comparing what I have to what I bought this year.

I am just wondering why farmers fuss about prices of seeds when they grow them every year.
If the seed companies are growing strains from two different types to get the seeds they sell, Why can't a farmer do the same thing.
I only had one type of corn which was a heirloom so I hope it will produce this year.
I am just wondering why the farmers are letting the seed companies dictate what they plant?
:baby04:

[uyk7]

"Farm subsidies are way, way down the past 2 years"

What I don't understand is that farmers (most?) buy crop insurance. When something happens to their crop they get money from the insurance company. Then the fed gov steps in and gives them more money (i.e. farm disaster relief). Why should taxpayers give farmers money when these same farmers have crop insurance?
Of course, IMHO, I think that farm subsidies are way too high. Neighbor was bringing in ~$80,000/yr in subsidies then got to keep all the money he made from his crop. Seems like a scam.

[paintlady]

FYI- when you take into consideration the fact that a bushel of wheat produces about 95 loaves of bread and bread is over $2.00 a loaf in the stores, it isn't the farmers who are getting rich off of the wheat. We are organic farmers and we DO save our seed. We also planted winter wheat this year as we have been in a drought situation and there is more natural moisture in the Spring than in the summer months. The dry conditions have affected yields. Ditto with the soybeans. The cost of fuel has gone up considerably too and this has to be taken into consideration as it takes fuel to work the fields, plant and harvest and shipping the wheat isn't free. With organics we also have to pay high fees each year to our certifier- whether or not we get a crop. There is a lot more to farming than the average consumer knows. Some farmers take out crop insurance( we don't) and that too is expensive. Many farmers rent their land. The money to pay for all of these things are coming out of the money farmers get for their crops. Some farmers don't store seed due to a lack of a place to store it and it costs many thousands of dollars to put up new grain bins to be able to store grain. Then there is the cost of machinery, grain trucks, property tax etc.

[rambler]

Originally Posted by uyk7

"Farm subsidies are way, way down the past 2 years"

What I don't understand is that farmers (most?) buy crop insurance. When something happens to their crop they get money from the insurance company. Then the fed gov steps in and gives them more money (i.e. farm disaster relief). Why should taxpayers give farmers money when these same farmers have crop insurance?
Of course, IMHO, I think that farm subsidies are way too high. Neighbor was bringing in ~$80,000/yr in subsidies then got to keep all the money he made from his crop. Seems like a scam.

There is very little disaster aid anymore in the form of handouts. for severe weather in a wide area, low intrest loans are about all that is available. The govt realized insurance was the better way to go, so the disaster aid mostly went away as the insurance programs came.

The current farm program is more or less desgined to keep farming viable in the USA. It offers a basic handout, ands then 2 different levels of price support - if grain prices are too low, they kick in.

The USA govt likes to mess with the world markets, with embargos & grain handouts & other such. This _deeply_ affects the prices USA farmers get for their grain. The farm program is a small effort to level that out. Somewhat.

The farm program runs out this fall. It sounds like the new one will be less handouts, and more insurance based, including revenue insurance. Who knows, a work in progress.

Ag in the USA needs either a saftey net, or _no_ govt interference in free trade.

Like it or not, the saftety net will stick around.\


------

Seed saving. The govt has decided to licence seeds with patents. So you are in a very grey area trying to save any seeds these days, not just GMO. Talk to the govt, not me, about it..... For a time, yield increases of 1-2 bu a year were coming from new soybean varaities, so you really wanted to buy new seed pretty regularly, or you fell way behind on yield & income.

With open pollinated corn you can get about 120 bu/acre. With hybred corn (which does not produce true seed) you can break 200 bu/acre. That is $160 - $300 per acre - makes the bag of seed look cheap.

We farmers are basically trying to find ways to produce grain as cheap as we can. If open pollinated & saved seed worked, we would be doing it.

--->Paul

[texican]

The baker listed in the OP's link is a 'silly' (read: not real smart) person. She's paying outrageous prices (compared to regular flour) for her 'organic' flour, and she doesn't even "tout" it to her customers? Why in the world would any sane person use expensive (for no reason) ingredients and not let her customers know about them. If I was a baker, and was paying a 3x premium for flour, I'd dang sure let my customers know about it, and pass along the cost, and double or triple what others were charging for their regular bread. It's all about the 'religion' of organics..... to get true believers in the bakery, with their loose pocketbooks, you gotta tell em your bread is 'organic kosher'.

How many of you buy a loaf of bread on 'sustainability' issues? Ms. Richardson (the baker) worries about it.

______________________________

Rising prices won't stop people from eating. Doubt it will stop many folks from having more chilluns than they can afford to feed... cause there's always a bleeding heart out there that will gladly vote for higher taxes to feed the hungry. Not take it out of their own pocket, of course... that would be silly.

[DaleK]

Had the OP corn discussion with a neighbour this year. He spent the same as us on planting and fertilizer, a bit less on chemicals, but a lot more on tillage, and used OP corn. End result was he saved about $40/acre by planting OP corn and was gloating over it. He also saved himself 60 bushels/acre of yield, but couldn't wrap his mind around the math of saving $40 on one hand and losing $210 on the other.
We save our wheat seed. Put about 230 acres of saved seed in this fall and 20 of a new variety. Whatever does best is what we'll save next years seed from. Same for barley and conventional beans when we grow them. Saving RR beans is a bit too risky. Saving corn is downright stupid.
When Dad started farming with his father in the early 60s, they kept 55-60% of every cheque they brought in as profit. Now we're doing well if we can keep 5%.

[brosil]

Texican: The religion of organics is the main reason I won't certify our farm organic even though I farm completely organically. Organic farming is the way you SHOULD be farming anyway. I fell it's ethically wrong to charge extra for food produced the way it should be anyway. Do what you will.