Energy worries

[Cash]

First thank you for the thread on veggie oil/diesel engines. I've lurked around this forum for more than a year, but only joined a little while ago.

We share a small farm with my brother and his family. Nothing fancy -- two horses, annual pigs, some chickens, a BIG garden, small but expanding orchard. We all have outside jobs. I've followed the peak oil issue for maybe ten years now, ever since the story in Scientific American, but lately we've started paying more attention to it. If the current numbers and trends continue, it appears we're passing the peak and entering the decline side of the Hubbert Curve. We look at gasoline prices at the local service station and food prices in the supermarket and the events in the Middle East and frankly we worry a little.

We've already made some adjustments -- less driving, more reliance on our woodstoves, expanding our home food production. So far we're reacting pretty much the way people did during the energy crises of the 1970s. But back then we knew the shortages were temporary, caused by war and political conflicts rather than actual shortages of petroleum. This time it's different, and we've begun talking about what long-term adaptations we need to think about. We are almost totally dependent on gasoline and diesel fuel for our farm work, from cutting firewood to bringing in hay.

Are there other people here who have the same concerns? What do you see happening in the future? Are you making any changes or additions to your places as a result? Our horses are not trained or suited for field work. Should we be looking for draft horses? Or are we worrying needlessly about a situation that will blow over in a few months?

[clsmith15]

I don't know the answers to most of your questions, but your horses can be cross-trained for field work. I don't think there are many trainers around or training material for this kind of work and they won't be as productive as a draft breed but it can be done. I wouldn't buy new ones just yet. Will we be needing saddle horses to get around in rural areas? Not too long ago you could get around a bit on horseback if you lived out in the boonies. Now cars come flying down the country roads with the drivers yacking on cell phones completely oblivious to what's on the road. I'm completely dependent on fuel to get to work. 55 miles each way, 45 of those miles on interstate. No way I'm riding a horse to work.

[PineRidge]

Why don't you post this same question to the Survival & Emergency Prep. board (on the main Homesteadint Today page, about a third of the way down) There are plenty of people here concerned with Peak Oil, and it sounds as if you are making great headway on your preps. Also on the survival board everyone will have advice, and questions to get you thinking, even if they aren't preparing for PO.

HTH

[veme]

Hi!
We've been worried for about 20 years and have altered lots of things about our lives.

A draft horse doesn't pay at present because a horse has to eat even when its not working, a stall has to be cleaned & a horse needs good honest work just about everyday.
Maybe when my husband retires it will make more sense.

We have a car & a truck at present. When the car dies we are not going to replace it. We are going to share the truck.

If you haven't already read James Howard Kunstler's LONG EMERGENCY I recommend it.
http://www.rollingstone.com/news/sto...long_emergency

veme

[YuccaFlatsRanch]

An interesting concept and the reason that so many populate this board. Recently I have read that the US reserves of oil IF we were to shut down all imports is about 50 years. Surprisingly I recently learned that we also import about 20-30% of our gasoline - not oil, but gasoline because of all the boutique fuels and the lack of refining capability. 50 years is a significant amount of time, hopefully time to do something about energy alternatives, but not near enough IF we don't start to do something.

I also am hopeful that the oil indistry has stopped/preserved domestic oil production partly because they are saving ours and using theirs which would be the smartest thing to have done. Problem may be that others decide to try to take ours to replace theirs that has run out. HMMMM - I am getting happier all the time to be 58. Within several years I will have managed to become as independent as possible, and as frugal as possible. If I had to I could just about be food independent now - except for longer term food storage (refrigerator/freezer), but I know how to dry and how to salt and preserve by canning. Fortunately I live in an area that experiences only minor weather extremes - not tooo cold, not toooo hot, and adequate rainfall and the ability to get water out of the ground without electricity as well as lots of rainwater storage already in place.

[Junkmanme]

I am not convinced that we will experience real supply shortages in the next 30 years or so. High cost - YES! temporary supply shortfalls...yes more $$$ outflow...definitely!

The problem concerns infrastructure and delivery systems as much or more than raw supply, in my opinion. Also, because of the centralization of energy suppliers (Big Companies..Utilities..etal) the alternative fuels will tend to be expensive and "controlled" also.

I believe the energy problem is at the very least 75% a MONEY PROBLEM. Much more so than a raw materials problem.

It is worthwhile to check the known "reserves"...particularly natural gas and coal.....LOTS OF IT!!!!!!!

just one man's opinion,
Bruce

[Terri]

In the 70's, car pooling was popular.

Automobiles were changed to be more fuel-efficient.

People saved in some OTHER areas so that they could better afford the gasoline they needed. Your garden is a good start: if things get too bad a veggie stand on your farm might be good: people might WANT fresh tomatos, but not want to drive to town. So they will buy from you, and you can use the money to help with gasoline costs.

People turned their thermostats down to 60 in the winter and up to 80 in the winter. This decreased the amount of fuel used, freed up more for automobiles, and cut costs to consumers so that they could buy more gasoline.

Do you know what FINALLY made things better? People were looking REALLY hard at the budget for the gas companies, and then (all of a sudden) they did not need to set their prices so high. You see, the gas companies have a near-monopoly on gas, and if they were price fixing the Feds could get involved. The more pinched the consumers were, the more likely that the politicians would curry favor with the voters by doing something about the gas prices. It hurts less if you lower your OWN prices and raise them a bit later!!!!!

At any rate, the Feds had decided to have hearings on the subject of price - fixing and gas companies, but then the price of gas went down and so this was canceled. It was all just SOO convenient, that the gas companies would not NEED to keep the prices so high just when the Federal investigation was under way!!!!!

So the cost of running a car went down.

Seriously? The cost of gas WILL come down! We just have to manage until they do, and THAT can be a TRICK! It CAN get MUCH worse before it gets better!

[Beeman]

Energy worries are definetly something we will be dealing with. The cost is the big factor, more than supply. There will be alternatives but they won't be cheap. My biggest concerns as I age is the rising costs of basics and how we will be able to deal with them. Every cost that increases directly increases costs to gov't and so your taxes rise, an unavoidable expense if you own property or buy anything. Our country went global so there is no local producers and if there are they won't sell to you. Since everything is transported the energy costs keep making those prices rise faster than basic inflation. I'm talking about food items, feeds, and any other basic supplies.

[sgl42]

i'm thinking about peak oil too. don't own land right now, but thinking of what i'd want. would like to be near a railroad, as that's the most energy efficient transport.

would also consider 'growing' my energy needs. eg, jerusalem artichoke supposedly creates enough oil from one acre to provide the auto driving needs of the average american for one year.

--sgl

[Trixie]

Originally Posted by sgl42

i'm thinking about peak oil too. don't own land right now, but thinking of what i'd want. would like to be near a railroad, as that's the most energy efficient transport.

would also consider 'growing' my energy needs. eg, jerusalem artichoke supposedly creates enough oil from one acre to provide the auto driving needs of the average american for one year.

--sgl

Really? Not doubting you - as I believe there are lots of different ways we could do this - but not with our government being owned by oil companies.

Don't expect any amount of rhetoric about price fixing to do any good this time. Heck, if somehow we manage to cut back, our government will probably decide they need another handout.

[Dave S.]

We were on the top of the curve in the 70's, we are headed down the other side now. The US prouces less than 10% of the natural gas we use. My mantra is "wind and water, wind and water" and solar too, when it becomes more affordable.


Dave

[Trixie]

When were were in AZ, I just marvelled at the LACK of solar usage. If the government wanted to do something, that would have been a really good place to do it.

One of the universities out there has some huge solar panels and is doing some research I think. Why wouldn't it be better to give them a grant to develop, install, individual solar units?

There was so much building going on out there and in Las Vegas. If the government had given incentives and perhaps demanded, that all those new houses had solar panels, and the new office buildings had solar panels and were designed for cooling efficiency - it would have made a huge difference. If that had been done just a few years ago, by now the solar units would probably have already been paid for by the savings.

YOu can dry a line of clothes faster on the line out there than in a dryer. The only people I saw out there hanging their clothes out were the poor people in the really bad part of town and us old fogeys in the RV parks. They had clothes lines out beside the washateria. When they put in new machines, I guess they needed more revenue and they took the clotheslines down. A dryer is not a necessity in that area.

[sgl42]

Originally Posted by Trixie

Really? Not doubting you - as I believe there are lots of different ways we could do this - but not with our government being owned by oil companies.

http://journeytoforever.org/biodiesel_yield.html has oil yields per acre for various crops. they don't have jerusalem artichoke on here, so i must have got that from another site somewhere.

i agree with you that gov't cannot be depended on for help in this area. in fact, i expect they'll get in the way quite a bit more than they already are.

--sgl

[sgl42]

Originally Posted by Trixie

When were were in AZ, I just marvelled at the LACK of solar usage. If the government wanted to do something, that would have been a really good place to do it.

i've done some studying of solar energy and the costs, tradeoffs, etc.

from my understanding, you can't 'bolt on' solar energy onto an existing house design, and make it pay, even in a very sunny place like arizona.

the biggest energy costs of homes is in space heating/cooling, and the refrigerator/freezer, and water heater. most homes are designed to have a low thermal mass, so that moments after the a/c or heater come on, they're at the desired temp, so the homebuyer doesn't complain to the hvac installers. but you usually want high thermal mass for solar homes, as just one example.

not to mention running up against all the building codes. and lack of experience by the builders, so estimates and costs are higher.

in short, even *if* the gov't wanted to do something, and that's doubtful, they'd have a tremendous amount of work to do to 'undo' all the biases built into the building codes, city regulations, zoning laws, housing permitting rules, etc. etc.

so, altho i'd prefer to live relatively close to a city for commuting cost savings, i'll probably have to buy something far enough out to avoid all the "rules" that prevent me from doing what i what i want to do. so, with commuting costs thrown in, how much energy overall are you really saving?

Originally Posted by Trixie

YOu can dry a line of clothes faster on the line out there than in a dryer. The only people I saw out there hanging their clothes out were the poor people in the really bad part of town and us old fogeys in the RV parks.

probably against the homeowner association rules in the fancy neighborhoods to have a clothsline. can't have those property values declining!

another example of us americans paying extra money for worse results.

[brosil]

You might want to spend a little time here.http://www.ruralheritage.com/message...rch/index1.htm

[Trixie]

Originally Posted by sgl42

i've done some studying of solar energy and the costs, tradeoffs, etc.

from my understanding, you can't 'bolt on' solar energy onto an existing house design, and make it pay, even in a very sunny place like arizona.

the biggest energy costs of homes is in space heating/cooling, and the refrigerator/freezer, and water heater. most homes are designed to have a low thermal mass, so that moments after the a/c or heater come on, they're at the desired temp, so the homebuyer doesn't complain to the hvac installers. but you usually want high thermal mass for solar homes, as just one example.

not to mention running up against all the building codes. and lack of experience by the builders, so estimates and costs are higher.

in short, even *if* the gov't wanted to do something, and that's doubtful, they'd have a tremendous amount of work to do to 'undo' all the biases built into the building codes, city regulations, zoning laws, housing permitting rules, etc. etc.

so, altho i'd prefer to live relatively close to a city for commuting cost savings, i'll probably have to buy something far enough out to avoid all the "rules" that prevent me from doing what i what i want to do. so, with commuting costs thrown in, how much energy overall are you really saving?

probably against the homeowner association rules in the fancy neighborhoods to have a clothsline. can't have those property values declining!

another example of us americans paying extra money for worse results.

Some homes out there do have solar panels - I don't know what savings they achieve.

I will confess I am dumb as dirt about this, but I talked with a lady in CA that had solar put in during the 'rolling black outs' some years ago. At that time, it cost her $20,000 and when I talked with her a couple of years later, she said it was quite a savings for her, and they were quite pleased.

Hopefully there are ways for everyone to save, however, I was really thinking about new construction. There is no reason the builders could not be 'encouraged' to build more energy efficient houses and include solar power.
They would have to do better with the construction, I'll agree. Those houses out there are a frame, chip board and stucco. It's pathetic.

Yes, the homeowner's association ---------

I realize all the reasons they aren't doing it - but they seem to be outweighed by the reasons they should and could.

One RV park, we chose our site because there were shade trees. One right beside our site and a couple on each side. In fact, there were a line of them, and on the west side. It made such a difference.

At the beginning of the line of trees, some were pretty close to a power line. The tree trimming company came out and began to trim those, I understood taht. They just continued trimming the trees. Now the power lines veered off and were across a drainage ditch and a canal from the rest of the line of trees. They were trimming them all - just scalping them, not just trimming one side - literally cutting all the limbs. My husband told them they weren't cutting his tree. He sat under it and our truck was parked under it. He was just giving them a hard time, but he did sit out there a lot to read. He kept them at bay for a couple of days. Finally, he told them to go ahead.

There was no reason to cut those trees, none at all. We didn't stay there much longer, but it raised our cooling bill quite a bit. I can only imagine the difference it made for those that had the park model type homes.

[texican]

There is a tax write off for 33% of any new solar electric installation, up to 2K.... soooo, the govt. is doing a little something.

Why worry about something you can't control? We can conserve as much as we want, and it will have no effect on petroleum reserves... as the Chinese and Indian's are consuming vast quantities for the first time ever, and apparently 'like' driving.

I question the '50 years' supply of petroleum in the US, unless one takes into consideration the oil shale supplies... which means levelling the northwestern part of Colorado, e Utah, and southern Wyoming.

[michiganfarmer]

Originally Posted by Cash

But back then we knew the shortages were temporary, caused by war and political conflicts rather than actual shortages of petroleum. This time it's different,



Are there other people here who have the same concerns? What do you see happening in the future? Are you making any changes or additions to your places as a result? Our horses are not trained or suited for field work. Should we be looking for draft horses? Or are we worrying needlessly about a situation that will blow over in a few months?

I believe in peak oil. I am saving for draft horses. I bought an old diesel tractor that will run on veggy oil. I am saving for hand powered firewood cutting tools. I am saving for a wood cook stove. I am working toward being comfortable if I ever have to live off grid.


I think your planning can only bring bennefits, but your statement about what people knew that caused the shortage in the 70's, and what people think is causing the high prices now is flawed. I dont like statements like that.

No one knows 100% for sure that peak oil will happen. No one can see in the ground...and for the people who dont believe in peak oil...they cant prove there is an infinate supply either.

[Cash]

Wow, quite a range of comments. Thank you all, very much.

Those who think we still have 50 years of oil at current consumption rates might want to look into the issue a little more. I often recommend www.theoildrum.com as a place to start because it's written by experts and doesn't generally attract the "doom and gloom we're all gonna die" crowd you see on some peak oil sites.

Michiganfarmer, I'm confused by your comment. I lived through the energy crises of the 1970s -- drove halfway across the country during the worst of the 1979 shortages -- and there was wide recognition of why it all was happening. As for current global production and its future direction, the numbers are there for anyone to see. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 and went into decline. More than three dozen other nations have also peaked and gone into decline since then. It's inevitable that total world production will do the same, and there are pretty good indications that it's happening right now.

And thanks for the recommendation about the Prep forum. It's a regular stop for me now.

[WisJim]

Back in the mid-1970s I was newly married, working in a city, and the first "gas crisis" occured. Then Nixon put price controls on many items, making them hard to get. We bought rural property, built a super-insulated house (in 1977), and put in a wind generator for our off grid home. We added our first PV panels in 1981. We now live in a different part of the state, in an old existing farm house, and have added more PVs to our old windgenerator, which we moved with us. We drive cars that get 40 to 50+mpg, a 2000 Chevy Metro and a 1992 Honda Civic VX, and ride small motorcycles and bicycles when appropriate. We grow as much of our own food as we can manage.

We are amazed that most people forgot the "lessons" of the 1973 gas crisis, and have been acting like there is no tomorrow. Do we think that things will get worse? Sure do. We spent the last 30 years with that thought in the back of our minds, and it has been a part of most decisions that we make.