
06/19/14, 12:56 PM
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Whiskey Flats(Ft. Worth) , Tx
Posts: 8,749
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nevada
While all that's true, I don't believe those facts paint an accurate picture of the situation in Iraq.
Understand that the portions of Iraq that have been taken by militants are Sunni territory. Those areas would have welcomed the militants, since they are there in the interest of Sunnis. Moreover, the Iraqi troops (read that "Shiite troops") in Mosul were guarding a Sunni city, which they had no interest in protecting. Yes, they removed their uniforms and bugged-out, but you won't see the same lack of interest in Baghdad and other Shiite areas. You can expect a fight.
Expect the fight in Baghdad to be fought as an insurgency with IEDs and suicide missions, not an armed military-style conflict. They'll try a military conflict, but when they see the resistance they'll send in insurgents. It will also take a while.
The real problem will be in how to take back occupied Sunni cities.
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.................The residents of those Sunni territories that had previously supported Sadam were 'Liberals' which means they will NOT support ISIS for any type of long term goverance ! They will accept ISIS for the time being because it is either that or be shot . It is just a matter of time until ISIS will find itself at odds(at war) with all moderate Sunni's in northern Iraq and their hold on power and their military strength will diminish with time . Malaki is either going to open his political tent to moderate Sunni's or someone is going to put a 9mm in the back of his very hard head ! Once he is gone inclusiveness will become the solution for the formation of a national governing power structure that can reestablish the Army to remove members of ISIS and their control of acquired territories with the exception of the Kurds .
.................ISIS can't move north because to engage the Kurds means engaging The Whole Of Turkey as well . Oddly enough this crisis has brought the Kurds and the Turks into a partnership to secure the oil fields in northern Iraq as well as provide security for the Turks southern border .
In addition , this situation has created the most favorable set of circumstances for the Kurds to actually form their own nation...........They have good relations with Turkey , Iraq is politically and militarily weak and so the Kurds have taken management and control of the oil fields around Kirkuk(sp) ! Even , IF , Malaki survives , the Iraqi military will probably never take back control of the northern oil fields that have been ceded to the Kurds . , fordy
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