
05/30/06, 11:46 PM
|
 |
KS dairy farmers
|
|
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: KS
Posts: 3,841
|
|
|
There will always be dairy farms that survive. No "ONE" way is the "RIGHT" way. Each operation has to find the sweet spot where financial viability and SOME amount of quality of life converge. Each farm offers unique advantages, and each farm has distinct disadvantages. You have to exploit the advantagees your operation has to the fullest, and minimize damage from disadvantages. After years of study, I see different production models that will endure:
1) Small Scale Artisanal Dairy- Cream line milk or cheese. Best for small acreages a reasonable distance from a metro market - Requires direct sales.
2)Commercial Grazing dairy - Requires enough land cows can walk to, a milking parlor for efficiency, and 30 inches or more of rain annually. These survive by keeping costs and machinery investment to a minimum, as opposed to striving for high per cow production. They measure results by net $ return per cow or by $ PER ACRE profit, not by Rolling Herd Average.
3)Genetics Breedingstock herd- Do a good job of milk production, spend a lot of resources on cowcare, and supplement income thru sale of Registered cattle, embryos, or maybe even a bull to an AI firm. This seems to be the most sought after model in the industry, but it is also a financially dangerous model for new entrants to dairy farming. Many young families think they are going to burn up the world with registered cattle, and work themselves to a frazzle , only to find they are a small fish in a big pond.
4.) Confinement Dairying - Whether Western drylot or Humid climate Freestall Housing, they all require hired labor and huge capital investment.
They pretty well have the cow comfort and feeding down to a science where they can put it all together and run 80+ pounds per day bulk tank average. They will survive despite high cull rates and huge overhead costs.
In some areas, many will be shuttered in the future due to clean water issues and high energy costs. But they will continue to make the Lion's share of milk volume. The Lenders and the Goverment will find a way to keep 80% of them operating, even if they have to subsidize to do so.
At some point the public will grow weary of the "Save the family Farm thinking". Anyone who wants to make a living as a dairy farmer will have to find what works best for his/her farm and stick doggedly to that plan.
|